
BEST PICTURE
The Favourite
First Man
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
Widows
Falling off: None
Rising star: Black Panther
The skinny: Though Green Book will come on strong after its Thanksgiving opening, right now it’s A Star Is Born that’s firmly in the lead. (Though to be fair, only it and First Man have opened.) With close to $200 million in domestic gross, strong critical support and the added benefit of being “the kind of movie they don’t make anymore,” it’s the one to beat. I’m still skeptical on Black Panther‘s chances. Yes, the demographics are changing. Yes, Logan got a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination last year. But that and more than a billion dollars in box office don’t mean it’s a sure thing.

BEST DIRECTOR
Damien Chazelle, First Man
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Steve McQueen, Widows
Falling off: None
Rising star: Peter Farrelly, Green Book
The skinny: Bradley Cooper’s name is already etched on the DGA’s Best First Feature Award, but winning Best Director might be a bigger challenge, at least against these heavyweights. Though Jenkins and McQueen have yet to win, right now I think it’s Cuarón who has the edge, since Roma is a labor of love, in which he served as his own DP. You’re going to hear that detail a lot. But if Green Book is as big a hit as expected, a Farrelly brother might be nominated for multiple Oscars. Did a shiver just go down your spine?

BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale, Vice
Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Ryan Gosling, First Man
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Falling off: Timothée Chalamet (moved to supporting), Willem Dafoe
Rising star: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
The skinny: Christian Bale has completed another transformation. He and Cooper are locks, but no one else is guaranteed. This is the most competitive Best Actor race in a long time, so who knows who the other three will be. It could even be Rami Malek. He’s already an Emmy winner for Mr. Robot, and could be the lone Oscar nomination for Bohemian Rhapsody, a successful but disrespected biopic.

BEST ACTRESS
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Viola Davis, Widows
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Falling off: None
Rising star: Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place or Mary Poppins Returns
The skinny: I feel pretty confident in this slate, even though Paramount will make a pretty big push for A Quiet Place, which is a bit insane to me. If Emily Blunt can’t get nominated for Sicario, I don’t think she’ll get nominated for her other works this year, even if there are corollaries (Audrey Hepburn in Wait Until Dark and Julie Andrews in Mary Poppins).
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