BEST PICTURE
The Favourite
First Man
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
Widows
Falling off: Beautiful Boy; Mary, Queen of Scots; On the Basis of Sex
Rising star: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
The skinny: The movie that wins the People’s Choice Award at TIFF can almost certainly count on a Best Picture nomination. That means that Green Book, which hearkens back to the racial dynamics of Driving Miss Daisy (not to mention Hidden Figures or The Help), is your new front runner for the moment. Now, critics have almost uniformly said the performances of Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali elevate it above what you would expect of an historical drama from one of the Farrelly brothers, but we’ll see if it’s more of the same. A Star Is Born, which didn’t even make the top three at TIFF, is right behind it.
BEST DIRECTOR
Damien Chazelle, First Man
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Steve McQueen, Widows
Falling off: Yorgos Lanthimos
Rising star: Spike Lee, Black Klansman
The skinny: Two rematches (Chazelle vs. Jenkins, Cuarón vs. McQueen), plus newcomer Bradley Cooper for the fourth version of a popular story. If Spike Lee can finally get an overdue nomination, this might be the most diverse slate this category has ever had.
BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale, Vice
Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Ryan Gosling, First Man
Falling off: Joaquin Phoenix
Rising star: Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun; Clint Eastwood, The Mule
The skinny: Bale swaggered in with a killer trailer for Vice (previously titled Backseat). Packing on more than 100 pounds, he’s the clear leader, though he’ll be facing off against a group of former nominees who have never won before. And there are two octogenarians in what might be their final performances fighting for the geriatric slot: Redford and Eastwood. Both are in roles tailor-made for their particular set of skills, but The Mule has the edge since way more people will see it.
BEST ACTRESS
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Viola Davis, Widows
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Falling off: Saoirse Ronan
Rising star: Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
The skinny: Ronan falls victim to no one having seen her period piece yet (which is also hurting co-star Margot Robbie at the moment). So she’s off the board while Lady Gaga hollers her way into the line-up. With such great reviews, she now seems like the only lock alongside Felicity Jones. Mixed reviews for Destroyer mean Nicole Kidman could have enough support from enough people to be nominated again. But this may be a case like The Paperboy, where great notices and some precursor awards don’t translate to a nod for work in a film that won’t have broad appeal.








