My Dream Oscar Ballot 2020

Once again, I’m going off the Academy’s eligibility lists, so several movies I would have considered for some awards aren’t represented here. I’ve also seen too few animated, foreign language and documentary films to fill out those categories, so I’m abstaining. So enjoy my much-improved lists from the Academy’s nominees.

BEST PICTURE
1917
Give Me Liberty
Hustlers
The Irishman
Knives Out
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once upon a Time… in Hollywood
Parasite
Portrait of a Lady on Fire

BEST DIRECTOR
Sam Mendes, 1917
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Quentin Tarantino, Once upon a Time… in Hollywood
Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
Céline Sciamma, Portrait of a Lady on Fire

BEST ACTOR
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once upon a Time… in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems

BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Florence Pugh, Midsommar
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women

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Oscar Guide 2020

A shortened season hasn’t brought many surprises, but that doesn’t mean you should take many of these picks to the bank.

Dean Charles Chapman and George Mackay in 1917
BEST PICTURE
1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once upon a Time… in Hollywood
Parasite

Will win: 1917
Could and should win: Parasite
Should have been here: Portrait of a Lady on Fire

The skinny: With wins at BAFTA, the PGAs, the DGAs, and the Golden Globes, 1917 is basically a lock. While Parasite did win the top prize at SAG (where it didn’t compete against 1917) and has a near-universal approval rating, do you honestly think the same Academy that gave Green Book Best Picture last year is going to turn around and give a foreign language film the top prize? I would love to see it, but it would be an enormous shock. They should have gone even further and nominated another foreign language film, but Portrait of a Lady on Fire sadly didn’t get love anywhere.

Sam Mendes on the set of 1917
BEST DIRECTOR
Sam Mendes, 1917
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Todd Phillips, Joker
Quentin Tarantino, Once upon a Time… in Hollywood
Bong Joon Ho, Parasite

Will win: Sam Mendes
Could and should win: Bong Joon Ho
Should have been here: Greta Gerwig, Little Women

The skinny: Even when I initially thought Once upon a Time… in Hollywood would win, and even when I thought there might be a path for Parasite to shock the world, I always thought Mendes would pick up his second Oscar here. A DGA win confirms it. Still can’t believe Todd Phillips got nominated here, especially when Little Women is 10 times the film Joker is, but here we are.

Joaquin Phoenix in Joker
BEST ACTOR
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once upon a Time… in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

Will win: Joaquin Phoenix
Could and should win: Adam Driver
Should have been here: Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems

The skinny: I don’t think a big Joker sweep is possible, despite it leading in nominations. But this is a definite lock. Phoenix is long overdue, and he’s the best part of this dreadful movie. I’ll just pretend it’s a win for The Master instead. And most of the Academy was never going anywhere near a movie as wild as Uncut Gems, so I wasn’t that surprised Adam Sandler’s name wasn’t called.

Renée Zellweger in Judy
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renée Zellweger, Judy

Will win: Renée Zellweger
Could and should win: Saoirse Ronan
Should have been here: Lupita Nyong’o, Us

The skinny: This has seemingly been locked up since August, when Judy premiered at Telluride. But if any category is due for a shake-up, it’s this one. Unfortunately, the year’s best performance wasn’t even nominated, as Lupita was ignored. But picking who could upset here is extremely difficult. If it’s anyone else, I think it’s Saoirse Ronan, already on her fourth nomination. But it could also be Scarlett Johansson, giving her best performance to date in Marriage Story. (Though double nominees have often struck out as of late.)

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Oscar Re-Do: 2009

You know the drill. Winners in bold, then we break it down.

Eli Roth in Inglourious Basterds
BEST PICTURE
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

Should have won: Inglourious Basterds
Not even nominated: The White Ribbon

“I think this might just be my masterpiece.” It’s a huge flex to end your film that way, but Tarantino was pretty much right on the money. I prefer Jackie Brown, but it’s hard to argue with this revisionist take on World War II. It’s horrifying, hilarious and has so many scenes that make me downright giddy that I’m amazed I didn’t rank this at No. 1 back in the day. There are some other very good films here (including the winner), along with some head-scratching choices (a guarantee given the expanded slate), but this is clearly the winner of 2009.

But I don’t know how there were 10 slots available and they gave one to The Blind Side when The White Ribbon was right there. Obviously, the former is a lot more pleasant to watch. But it’s not even in the same league as Michael Haneke’s black-and-white horror show about a village of the damned (spoiler: the kids grow up to be Nazis). Sadly, it continues to be relevant.

Kathryn Bigelow on the set of The Hurt Locker
BEST DIRECTOR
James Cameron, Avatar
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air

Should have won: No complaints here
Not even nominated: Tom Ford, A Single Man

While I would have loved a Tarantino victory (which may never come), the historical importance of Kathryn Bigelow’s win here is too much to make a case against. She was already a stellar director, and only the fourth woman to ever be nominated here. It was a long overdue achievement, even if her best film was yet to come.

And while I’m not a fan of Precious as a whole, I won’t quibble with Lee Daniels’ nomination here. (Somehow, he was only the second African-American nominated in this category.) But if there was room, I would have wanted to see first-timer (and fashion designer) Tom Ford nominated for his lovely, powerful adaptation of A Single Man.

Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart
BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Should have won: No complaints here
Not even nominated: Matt Damon, The Informant!

I had long believed Firth and Bridges should have swapped Oscar wins, with Bridges winning for True Grit. But with a decade of perspective, I can’t quite defend that. Bridges’ turn as Bad Blake in Crazy Heart is more than just a career achievement award. That role embodies what makes Bridges great: a flawed but big-hearted non-conformist. He makes mistakes but owns up to them too.

I’d remove Morgan Freeman’s Oscar bait-y turn as Nelson Mandela in Clint Eastwood’s bland Invictus (along with Damon’s own nomination as Supporting Actor) and slot him in here for his outstanding work in Steven Soderbergh’s The Informant! As Mark Whitacre, a seemingly straight-arrow corporate man blowing the whistle on his own company, he’s transfixing, especially when he’s clearly not in control of his own brain.

Gabourey Sidibe in Precious
BEST ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Should have won: Gabourey Sidibe
Not even nominated: Alison Lohman, Drag Me to Hell

I’d argue it’s basically impossible not to like Sandra Bullock. She’s basically the female Tom Hanks, a reliable actor who’s so delightful, it’s easy to overlook her duds. And while she’s easily the best part of The Blind Side, the most Southern White Christian mainstream movie to ever exist, it’s hard to compare that charm offensive to the brutal, gripping work of newcomer Gabourey Sidibe. While Mo’Nique rightly got a lot of acclaim as the world’s worst mother, Sidibe is the reason the film works (when it’s not speeding at 100mph into melodrama). She’s absolutely heartbreaking as the teen mom and victim of relentless abuse from both parents, making us hope for escape right along with her.

It would have never happened in a million years, but if the Academy gave a damn about horror movies, it couldn’t have ignored Alison Lohman’s tremendous turn in Sam Raimi’s Drag Me to Hell. If she hadn’t voluntarily left the industry, she could have had a great career as a scream queen. She’s terrific here as the loan officer pressured to be ruthless, earning a curse for her unkindness. If only the people who caused the financial crisis were similarly punished.

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What I Watched This Week: 26 Jan 2020

NEW SHOWS
The Outsider – “Que Viene el Coco” (A-)
Even without gruesome violence, this episode is the most unsettling yet, because all the stories about boogeymen are real. The plot similarities to It Follows are fine considering that’s one of the best horror stories of the last decade. King’s spin (with Price’s dialogue) is even more sinister.

Curb Your Enthusiasm – “Side Sitting” (B)
Had some pacing issues. (There’s something to be said for a tight 28 minutes vs. a meandering 36.) But it still had me in stitches, even as it was skirting up to the line of of insensitivity.

Schitt’s Creek – “Maid of Honor” (A-)
An episode that truly had it all, even if the Stevie-Alexis storyline was the only one with any emotional heft. But back-to-back references to John Carter and The Love Guru made this one of my favorites.

The Good Place – “Whenever You’re Ready” (A) / series finale
A truly satisfying wrap-up to this show and these characters I loved so deeply. There were some perfect echoes of the show’s first season in the endings for Jason and Michael, and Chidi’s monologue about waves in the ocean just absolutely wrecked me. I wasn’t ready to say goodbye to this show, but it was the right time for it to leave.

BINGEING
Grace and Frankie – Season 6 (B+ average)
A bit of an improvement from a hit-or-miss Season 5, as almost every character matured in mostly believable ways. That finale dropped a lot of cliffhangers to be resolved in its final season, but they didn’t do anything to diminish my anticipation.

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Streaming Picks: February 2020

FILMS
Top Picks
Good Time – Netflix 2/11
The Farewell – Prime 2/12
The Last Thing He Wanted – Netflix 2/21
Mister America – Hulu 2/13
For those whose first introduction to the Safdies was Uncut Gems, might I suggest this even wilder film that preceded it? It’s also about a man who keeps pushing his luck further than it can possibly go, and it resulted in Robert Pattinson’s best performance to date.

The Farewell is Lulu Wang’s delicate, devastating and often hilarious family drama that was ignored by the Academy. It’s terrific, but might be a little raw to watch right now if you (like me) have recently lost a family member.

I’ve been anticipating Dee Rees’ follow-up to Mudbound for a while now, but a February release date gives me a little bit of pause since it was long thought of as an awards contender. Still hoping for great things in this thriller about a reporter (Anne Hathaway) tracking an arms dealer, her dad (Willem Dafoe).

And while On Cinema at the Cinema is not to everyone’s taste, Mister America is an often hilarious spin-off of that show, with Tim Heidecker trying to take his con artist character into the biggest con of all: politics. It doesn’t exactly have anything profound to say about our system, but it’s an interesting alternate history where a complete buffoon who got into a race out of pettiness was instantly laughed out of the room.

Recent Selections
Adam – Hulu 2/1
Ms. Purple – Hulu 2/1
Where We Go from Here – Hulu 2/2
A Madea Family Funeral – Hulu and Prime 2/2
Jallikattu – Prime 2/2
Faith, Hope & Love – Netflix 2/4
#cats_the_mewvie – Netflix 2/5
Uppity: The Willy T. Ribbs Story – Netflix 2/5
Angel of Mine – Hulu 2/6
David Crosby: Remember My Name – Hulu 2/6
Wrinkles the Clown – Hulu 2/6
The Ballad of Lefty Brown – Netflix 2/7
Alive – Hulu and Prime 2/9
Polaroid – Netflix 2/9
Q Ball – Netflix 2/11
Where’d You Go, Bernadette – Hulu 2/12
Racetime – Hulu 2/14
Radioflash – Hulu 2/14
Villains – Hulu 2/14
Danger Close – Prime 2/15
47 Meters Down: Uncaged – Prime 2/16
Ice Princess Lily – Prime 2/21
Girl on the Third Floor – Netflix 2/22
Full Count – Netflix 2/23
Every Time I Die – Netflix 2/25
Run the Race – Hulu and Prime 2/25
The Angry Birds Movie 2 – Netflix 2/27
After the Wedding – Hulu 2/28

Originals
Sordo – Netflix 2/3
Honey Boy – Prime 2/7
Horse Girl – Netflix 2/7
The Coldest Game – Netflix 2/8
Camino a Roma – Netflix 2/11
To All the Boys: P.S. I Still Love You – Netflix 2/12
Isi & Ossi – Netflix 2/14
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon – Netflix 2/14
System Crasher – Netflix 2/21
Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back Evolution – Netflix 2/27
All the Bright Places – Netflix 2/28
La trinchera infinita – Netflix 2/28

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2019 in Review: Box Office Report

SURE-FIRE HITS – The Kings of the Box Office (All Disney Edition)
Avengers: Endgame ($858.3 million)
The Lion King ($543.6 million)
Toy Story 4 ($434 million)
Captain Marvel ($426.8 million)

SURPRISE SUCCESSES – They got there through word-of-mouth or succeeded where others failed
Us ($175 million)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood ($141 million)
*Knives Out ($115.7 million)
*Hustlers ($104.9 million)

CONSOLATION PRIZES – Didn’t do so hot here, but made up for it overseas
Hobbs & Shaw ($173.8 million) – made $585.1 million outside North America
Detective Pikachu ($144.1 million) – made $287.6 million outside North America
Alita: Battle Angel ($85.7 million) – made $319.1 million outside North America
The Wandering Earth ($5.8 million) – made $693.8 million outside North America

DISAPPOINTMENTS – Movies that should have done better
The Secret Life of Pets 2 ($158.2 million) – previous film made $368.3 million
Godzilla: King of the Monsters ($110.5 million) – previous film made $200.6 million
The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part ($105.8 million) – previous film made $257.7 million
The Angry Birds Movie 2 ($41.6 million) – previous film made $107.5 million

FLOPPIEST FLOPS – These cost a lot and didn’t come close to returning their investment
Dumbo ($114.5 million) – cost $170 million
Dark Phoenix ($65.8 million) – budget not reported, but possibly as much as $200 million
The Goldfinch ($5.3 million) – cost $45 million
Lucy in the Sky ($319,976) – cost $27 million

LOW-BUDGET VICTORIES – Low-cost, high-yield successes
Escape Room ($57 million) – cost $9 million
The Curse of La Llorona ($54.7 million) – cost $9 million
Ma ($45.3 million) – cost $5 million
Overcomer – ($34.7 million) cost $5 million

SADDEST STATISTIC
Doctor Sleep made $180 million less than It: Chapter Two.

(all grosses through Dec. 31, 2019)
*still in release

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2019 in Review: The Best Performances – Film

It was a stellar year for film acting, even if only one of these performances was nominated for an Academy Award.

Ensemble in a Comedy

The cast of Knives Out
Knives Out
As epic a cast as has ever been assembled for a murder mystery, each member of the Thrombey family is evil in their own way, even if they’d like to think they’re not as bad as the others. Anchored by outsiders Daniel Craig (hamming it up) and Ana de Armas (giving her best performance to date), the cast keeps each of their greedy morons frighteningly human.

Actor in a Comedy

Eddie Murphy in Dolemite Is My Name
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
Murphy has had a lot of great comedic turns over the years, but none of his creations were as deeply felt as his interpretation of Rudy Ray Moore. Larger than life but still deeply human, he makes you laugh, but also touches your heart in his vulnerable scenes.

Actress in a Comedy

Charlize Theron
Charlize Theron, Long Shot
While she got all the acclaim for her sympathetic portrayal of Megyn Kelly in Bombshell, she’s much better in Jonathan Levine’s political rom-com as the driven Secretary of State finally letting her guard down and falling in love with a jaded reporter (Seth Rogen).

Supporting Actor in a Comedy

Brad Pitt in Once upon a Time in Hollywood
Brad Pitt, Once upon a Time in Hollywood
It’s hard to believe anyone who looks like Brad Pitt would ever get “left behind,” yet a man of 50 who looks better than most of us ever will is completely convincing as an ex-stuntman whose best years are long behind him, but has found some sort of zen anyway.

Supporting Actress in a Comedy

Jennifer Lopez in Hustlers
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Her introduction, set to Fiona Apple’s “Criminal,” is among the best for any character in recent years. Your eyes are glued to her from then on, as she burns through roles from scene to scene: mentor, mother hen, ringleader and finally destroyer. She’s never been better, but hopefully more filmmakers give her parts that let her show what’s she’s capable of.

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2019 in Review: The Best and Worst Movies

After many delays – some of which were my fault, some of which were beyond my control – I present to you the best and worst films of 2019.

Chris Galust and Lauren "Lolo" Spencer in Give Me Liberty
10. Give Me Liberty (dir. Kirill Mikhanovsky)
If you haven’t heard of this one, don’t feel bad. It won me over at Sundance, and only got a brief fall release from Music Box Films. But as it hits home video and streaming this year, you should absolutely take a chance on this moving story from a first-time filmmaker. Alex Galust plays a bus driver having the worst day of his life: His family is in town for a funeral, he’s running late, and protests have closed off his normal routes to pick up his fares. The film takes us on a chaotic but life-affirming journey that I want to share with everyone.

Constance Wu and Jennifer Lopez in Hustlers
9. Hustlers (dir. Lorene Scafaria)
An expertly crafted con artist movie from one of our best directors, with effortless sexiness and cunning insight into which financial scams are deemed legitimate. Jennifer Lopez is absolutely electrifying as the mentor who inevitably pushes this dangerous scheme too far. If someone must take up the mantle of New York crime movies from Martin Scorsese, let it be Lorene Scafaria and not Todd Phillips.

The cast of Little Women
8. Little Women (dir. Greta Gerwig)
I was certainly pleased with Gerwig’s adaptation of Louisa May Alcott’s novel the first time I saw it. But the second time, when its back-and-forth rhythm finally clicked, it absolutely wrecked me. Every cast member is terrific, with many of them giving their best performances to date. It’s a lovely, deeply effecting film that shouldn’t be dismissed as “been there, done that.”

Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt in Once upon a Time in Hollywood
7. Once upon a Time in Hollywood (dir. Quentin Tarantino)
And speaking of films that didn’t click until a second viewing, Tarantino’s ode to the L.A. of his childhood is among his most vulnerable films. Yes, there’s still some extreme violence and a lot of bare feet, but this is one of the best movies about male friendship I’ve ever seen. And even with limited screen time, Margot Robbie is magnificent as Sharon Tate, bringing to life an actress who died too young.

Jue Huang in Long Day's Journey into Night
6. Long Day’s Journey into Night (dir. Bi Gan)
One of the most incredible theatrical experiences of the year, Bi Gan’s immersive mystery features an hour-long single take. While its U.S. release was only shown in 2D, I was blown away by its technical wizardry, but its haunting story hooked me long before that shot.

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What I Watched This Week: 19 Jan 2020

NEW SHOWS
The Outsider – “Dark Uncle” (B+)
As Chris and Andy mentioned on The Watch, this is an exposition-heavy episode. But because it’s shot and delivered with such panache, it’s completely captivating. The arrival of Cynthia Erivo portends good things, because she’s already shown such humanity in a character that’s seemingly not big on emotion.

Curb Your Enthusiasm – “Happy New Year” (B+) / season premiere
A little baggy in its first half, but by the second half, my sides were hurting with laughter from so many great sight gags, including Larry donning a MAGA hat to get out of talking to people and Cheryl gagging on talcum powder.

Schitt’s Creek – “The Job Interview” (A-)
The section of the episode where the titular action occurs was a scream, with Larry Air serving (I assume) as Canada’s answer to Spirit, where there two cornerstones are “No seat switching and ‘complimentary’ is not in our vocabulary.” One hopes Stevie wouldn’t settle for such an obviously crappy job, but there’s still plenty of season left for her to find her bliss. Bob’s obliviousness makes him even more of a poor sap, but Roland and Jocelyn showing up in a sacrificial way for Johnny and Moira is what this show is all about.

The Good Place – “Patty” (A)
A trip to the real Good Place rights last week’s wrongs. They’ve reached paradise but of course there’s still another challenge. This time, it’s not sabotage from the Bad Place, but the limits of eternal comfort. The last scene, between Chidi and Eleanor absolutely wrecked me. Heaven isn’t about having instant access to pleasure, but about getting to spend enough time with the people you love.

CURRENT SHOWS
The Good Place – “Mondays, Am I Right?” (B-)
Easily the weakest episode the show has ever done, and the while the plot is necessary to get through, this is the least breezy it’s ever felt.

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What I Watched This Week: 12 Jan 2020

NEW SHOWS
The Outsider
“The Incident” (B+) / series premiere
“Roanoke” (A)
A solid procedural with just enough eerie stuff on the periphery to keep it interesting. But then it delivers a jaw-dropping twist in its second episode, taking this from a good show to a must-see one.

Jeopardy!: The Greatest of All Time – Week 2 (A-)
Ken closes out the tournament with an aggressive game, capping off one of the most entertaining special events in recent TV history.

Schitt’s Creek – “The Incident” (A)
An absolutely hysterical episode that ranks among the show’s funniest episodes.

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