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VARIETY SPECIAL (PRE-RECORDED) Adam Sandler: Love You (Netflix) Ali Wong: Single Lady (Netflix) Bill Burr: Drop Dead Years (Hulu) Conan O’Brien: The Kennedy Center Mark Twain Prize for American Comedy (Netflix) Sarah Silverman: Postmortem (Netflix) Your Friend, Nate Bargatze (Netflix)
Will win: Sarah Silverman: Postmortem
Could win: Your Friend, Nate Bargatze
Should win: Bill Burr: Drop Dead Years
Should have been nominated: Cunk on Life (Netflix)
TV MOVIE Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy (Peacock) The Gorge (AppleTV+) Mountainhead (HBO) Nonnas (Netflix) Rebel Ridge (Netflix)
Will win: Mountainhead
Could win: Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy
Should win: Rebel Ridge
Should have been nominated: It’s What’s Inside (Netflix) Continue reading →
DRAMA SERIES Andor (Disney+) The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) The Last of Us (HBO) Paradise (Hulu) The Pitt (Max) Severance (AppleTV+) Squid Game (Netflix) The White Lotus (HBO)
Potential surprises: The Diplomat (Netflix) – never nominated House of the Dragon (HBO) – 1 nomination Slow Horses (AppleTV+) – 1 nomination Wolf Hall: The Mirror and the Light (PBS) – 1 nomination for Limited Series Yellowjackets (Showtime) – 2 nominations
Ineligible: 3 Body Problem, The Crown, Fallout, The Gilded Age, The Morning Show, Mr. and Mrs. Smith, Shōgun
In my dreams: Evil (Paramount+)
ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Sterling K. Brown, Paradise
Gary Oldman, Slow Horses
Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us
Adam Scott, Severance
Noah Wyle, The Pitt
Potential surprises:
Diego Luna, Andor – never nominated
Jeff Bridges, The Old Man – 1 nomination
Jon Hamm, Your Friends and Neighbors – new show
Lee Jung-jae, Squid Game – 1 win
Mark Rylance, Wolf Hall: The Mirror and the Light – 1 nomination for Actor in a Limited Series or Movie
Ineligible: Idris Elba, Donald Glover, Walton Goggins, Hiroyuki Sanada, Dominic West
In my dreams: Michael Fassbender, The Agency
ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Britt Lower, Severance
Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us
Keri Russell, The Diplomat
Potential surprises:
Kathy Bates, Matlock – new show
Nicola Coughlan, Bridgerton – never nominated
Sharon Horgan, Bad Sisters – 1 nomination
Nicole Kidman, The Perfect Couple – new show
Keira Knightley, Black Doves – new show
Ineligible: Jennifer Aniston, Carrie Coon, Maya Erskine, Anna Sawai, Imelda Staunton, Reese Witherspoon
COMEDY SERIES Abbott Elementary (ABC) The Bear (Hulu) The Four Seasons (Netflix) Hacks (Max) Nobody Wants This (Netflix) Only Murders in the Building (Hulu) The Studio (AppleTV+) What We Do in the Shadows (FX)
Potential surprises: Étoile (Prime Video) – new show The Righteous Gemstones (HBO) – never nominated Shrinking (AppleTV+) – never nominated
Ineligible: Curb Your Enthusiasm, Palm Royale, Reservation Dogs
In my dreams: The Rehearsal (HBO)
ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building
Seth Rogen, The Studio
Jason Segel, Shrinking
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear
Potential surprises:
Matt Berry, What We Do in the Shadows – 1 nomination
Adam Brody, Nobody Wants This – new show
Steve Carell, The Four Seasons – new show
Ted Danson, A Man on the Inside – new show
Kayvan Novak, What We Do in the Shadows – never nominated
Ineligible: Larry David, D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai
In my dreams: Nathan Fielder, The Rehearsal
ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Kristen Bell, Nobody Wants This
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face
Jean Smart, Hacks
Potential surprises:
Uzo Aduba, The Residence – new show
Natasia Demetriou, What We Do in the Shadows – never nominated
Tina Fey, The Four Seasons – new show
Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building – 1 nomination
Kathryn Hahn, Agatha All Along – new show
Ineligible: Maya Rudolph, Kristen Wiig
In my dreams: Edi Patterson, The Righteous Gemstones
LIMITED/ANTHOLOGY SERIES Adolescence (Netflix) Black Mirror (Netflix) Dying for Sex (Hulu) Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story (Netflix) The Penguin (HBO)
Potential surprises: American Primeval (Netflix) Disclaimer (AppleTV+) Presumed Innocent (AppleTV+)
In my dreams: Say Nothing (Hulu)
MOVIE MADE FOR TELEVISION Another Simple Favor (Prime Video) Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy (Peacock) Mountainhead (HBO) Rebel Ridge (Netflix) The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (Hulu)
Potential surprises: The Gorge (AppleTV+) Nonnas (Netflix) O’Dessa (Hulu) Out of My Mind (Disney+)
In my dreams: It’s What’s Inside (Netflix)
ACTOR IN A LIMITED/ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE
Nicholas Alexander Chavez, Monsters
Colin Farrell, The Penguin
Paul Giamatti, Black Mirror
Stephen Graham, Adolescence
Cooper Koch, Monsters
Potential surprises:
Steve Carell, Mountainhead
Colman Domingo, The Madness
Jake Gyllenhaal, Presumed Innocent
Brian Tyree Henry, Dope Thief
Kevin Kline, Disclaimer
In my dreams: Jimmy O. Yang, Interior Chinatown
ACTRESS IN A LIMITED/ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE
Cate Blanchett, Disclaimer
Meghann Fahy, Sirens
Cristin Milioti, The Penguin
Amanda Seyfried, Long Bright River
Michelle Williams, Dying for Sex
Potential surprises:
Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
Viola Davis, G20
Kaitlyn Dever, Apple Cider Vinegar
Ari Graynor, Monsters
Rashida Jones, Black Mirror
Sarah Paulson, Hold Your Breath
Ellen Pompeo, Good American Family
Natalie Portman, Lady in the Lake
Renée Zellweger, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy
VARIETY SPECIAL (LIVE) The Apple Music Super Bowl LIX Halftime Show (Fox) Beyoncé Bowl (Netflix) The Oscars (ABC) SNL50: The Anniversary Special (NBC) 77th Annual Tony Awards (CBS)
Potential surprises: The 67th Grammy Awards (CBS) FireAid: A Benefit Concert for Wildlife Relief SNL50: The Homecoming Concert (Peacock)
In my dreams: N/A
VARIETY SPECIAL (PRE-RECORDED) Bill Burr: Drop Dead Years (Hulu) Closing Ceremony Olympic Handover: Countdown to LA28 (NBC) An Evening with Elton John & Brandi Carlisle (Disney+) Hannah Einbinder: Everything Must Go (Max) A Nonsense Christmas with Sabrina Carpenter (Netflix)
Potential surprises: Adam Sandler: Love You (Netflix) Ali Wong: Single Lady (Netflix) Brett Goldstein: The Second Best Night of Your Life (Max) Jerrod Carmichael: Don’t Be Gay (Max) The Lion King at the Hollywood Bowl (Disney+) Mike Birbiglia: The Good Life (Netflix) Sarah Silverman: Postmortem (Netflix) Your Friend, Nate Bargatze (Netflix)
TALK SERIES The Daily Show (Comedy Central) Everybody’s Live with John Mulaney (Netflix) The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (CBS)
Potential surprises: Hot Ones (YouTube) – never nominated Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC) – 12 nominations Late Night with Seth Meyers (NBC) – 3 nominations The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (NBC) – 3 nominations
Ineligible: N/A
In my dreams: Have I Got News for You (CNN)
SCRIPTED VARIETY SERIES Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO) Saturday Night Live (NBC)
Potential surprises: N/A
Ineligible: N/A
In my dreams: After Midnight (CBS)
VARIETY SPECIAL (LIVE) The Apple Music Super Bowl LIX Halftime Show (Fox) Beyoncé Bowl (Netflix) The Oscars (ABC) SNL50: The Anniversary Special (NBC) 77th Annual Tony Awards (CBS)
Potential surprises: The 67th Grammy Awards (CBS) FireAid: A Benefit Concert for Wildlife Relief SNL50: The Homecoming Concert (Peacock)
In my dreams: N/A
VARIETY SPECIAL (PRE-RECORDED) Bill Burr: Drop Dead Years (Hulu) Closing Ceremony Olympic Handover: Countdown to LA28 (NBC) An Evening with Elton John & Brandi Carlisle (Disney+) Hannah Einbinder: Everything Must Go (Max) A Nonsense Christmas with Sabrina Carpenter (Netflix)
Potential surprises: Adam Sandler: Love You (Netflix) Ali Wong: Single Lady (Netflix) Brett Goldstein: The Second Best Night of Your Life (Max) Jerrod Carmichael: Don’t Be Gay (Max) The Lion King at the Hollywood Bowl (Disney+) Mike Birbiglia: The Good Life (Netflix) Sarah Silverman: Postmortem (Netflix) Your Friend, Nate Bargatze (Netflix)
20. The Terminal (dir. Steven Spielberg) Maybe it’s a little naïve. Maybe it’s a little (Capra) corny. But in an era where immigrants of all backgrounds and statuses are demonized, this is a pleasantly compassionate dramedy about people just trying to live their lives while our absurdly complex laws try to grind them down.
19. Touching the Void (dir. Kevin Macdonald) One of the most riveting documentaries ever made, Touching the Void recreates the harrowing experiences of Joe Simpson and Simon Yates. In 1985, the pair set out to summit the west face of the Siula Grande, which hasn’t been climbed for good reason. When the stormy descent threatens both their lives, Yates makes a gut-wrenching decision. The aftermath has to be seen to be believed.
18. The Village (dir. M. Night Shyamalan) It loses some points for Adrien Brody’s committed but borderline offensive performance. But this is an otherwise lovingly realized fable about courage and cowardice, brought to life with some incredible performances, breathtaking cinematography, and James Newton Howard’s best score.
17. Mean Girls (dir. Mark Waters) Is this the best high school movie of the decade? It’s certainly in the conversation, enduring after all the quotes, memes, adaptations, and remakes. Dissecting the cliques that can make the high school experience terrible or bearable, Tina Fey’s sharp script nails the pressure of navigating different social circles, while never forgetting this is first and foremost a comedy. It also has a sneaky great ensemble, all of whom perfectly play their often stupid characters.
16. Friday Night Lights (dir. Peter Berg) Far and away Pete Berg’s best film as a director, this adaptation of Buzz Bissinger’s seminal nonfiction book set the template for the great TV show that followed. Taken on its own merits, it delivers thrilling football action and high dramatic stakes. Leading it all is Billy Bob Thornton in a rare, restrained performance. Even if you hate how sports is treated like religion in Texas, it’s impossible not to hold your breath when a Hail Mary goes up while Explosions in the Sky plays on the soundtrack.
American Sniper Birdman Boyhood The Grand Budapest Hotel The Imitation Game Selma The Theory of Everything Whiplash
Should have won: Selma Not even nominated: Interstellar
Whether it was a bad campaign, a late release, or simply willful ignorance, Selma ended up with just two nominations: Best Picture and Best Original Song. It won the latter, but had no chance of winning the former, which looks dumber with each passing year. Despite career highs from Wes Anderson and Richard Linklater, Ava Duvernay’s biopic of Martin Luther King, Jr. is the best of this year. And by far the best of the Civil Rights-era films from the early 2010s (which ended with the embarrassing but financially successful Hidden Figures). It’s more than just a movie for history teachers to throw on after finals. It’s an urgent film that sadly has remained relevant, especially as minorities are under threat every single day and anyone who protests anything seems to be met with a baton and boot heel.
But strangely the most fondly remembered movie from 2014 was one even I wasn’t that keen on at the time. Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar has been memed to death, but also eventually claimed as a messy masterpiece (see also: Cloud Atlas), a mind-bending, time-jumping piece of sci-fi that cares more about the heart than the brain. Its nakedly emotional third act didn’t work for me (and many others) then, but now it seems quite impressive.
BEST DIRECTING
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman Richard Linklater, Boyhood Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Should have won: Richard Linklater Not even nominated: Jonathan Glazer, Under the Skin
I’m certainly no Birdman hater, but its achievement looks less impressive and more self-indulgent as time goes on. But Linklater, who filmed Boyhood over more than a decade, delivered a film that’s at once wholly natural, yet a jaw-dropping achievement at the same time. While he may be in awards contention again soon for this two upcoming period pieces, this was his moment, and the Oscars passed him over for a guy who simply doesn’t have the juice.
Glazer eventually found himself nominated for The Zone of Interest, his greatest film, but he had a case to be nominated here for his deeply unsettling alien invasion flick. Under the Skin is visually arresting and haunting, and far more impressive than the milquetoast Bennett Miller’s work on Foxcatcher (the only time since the expansion a director received a nod for a movie that wasn’t up for Best Picture).
BEST ACTOR
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher Bradley Cooper, American Sniper Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game Michael Keaton, Birdman Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Should have won: Michael Keaton Not even nominated: Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Here’s where Birdman – which picked up four awards – should have triumphed. But dumbass voters went once again for a man “transforming himself into” a well-known celebrity. Their obsession with mimicry in this category is a big head-scratcher, especially when they had a chance to honor Keaton, who puts all the ups and downs of his career into a blistering performance.
In fact, he was the only person in this category not playing a real person. That’s especially absurd when you had Ralph Fiennes delivering comedic perfection in a movie that was otherwise well-regarded by the Academy.
BEST ACTRESS
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything Julianne Moore, Still Alice Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Should have won: Rosamund Pike Not even nominated: Essie Davis, The Babadook
Julianne Moore is quite good in Still Alice, but it’s one of those movies pretty much everyone has forgotten by now. (And it’s a makeup award for Far from Heaven.) But Rosamund Pike is absolutely tremendous in Gone Girl, a relentless and adaptable sociopath out for revenge. That she was the film’s only nomination is also cause for retaliation.
In a somewhat weak year for this category, I’d have booted Felicity Jones and taken Essie Davis as the frustrated, frightened mother in The Babadook. She’s no mere scream queen, giving a performance that makes you feel her terror at a situation she can’t comprehend and an annoying kid she can’t control.
BEST PICTURE Anora The Brutalist Conclave A Different Man Dune: Part Two Evil Does Not Exist Hit Man I Saw the TV Glow The People’s Joker Sing Sing
BEST DIRECTING Sean Baker, Anora Brady Corbet, The Brutalist Radu Jude, Do Not Expect Too Much from the End of the World Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Evil Does Not Exist Jane Schoenbrun, I Saw the TV Glow
BEST ACTOR Adrien Brody, The Brutalist David Dastmalchian, Late Night with the Devil Colman Domingo, Sing Sing Sebastian Stan, A Different Man Ryland Brickson Cole Tews, Hundreds of Beavers
BEST ACTRESS Vera Drew, The People’s Joker Juliette Gariépy, Red Rooms Mikey Madison, Anora Ilinca Manolache, Do Not Expect Too Much from the End of the World Demi Moore, The Substance
BEST PICTURE Anora The Brutalist A Complete Unknown Conclave Dune: Part Two Emilia Pérez I’m Still Here Nickel Boys The Substance Wicked
Will win: Anora Could win: Conclave Should win: The Brutalist Should have been nominated: Sing Sing
BEST DIRECTING Sean Baker, Anora Brady Corbet, The Brutalist James Mangold, A Complete Unknown Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Will win: Sean Baker Could and should win: Brady Corbet Should have been nominated: Radu Jude, Do Not Expect Too Much from the End of the World
BEST ACTOR Adrien Brody, The Brutalist Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown Colman Domingo, Sing Sing Ralph Fiennes, Conclave Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Will win: Timothée Chalamet Could win: Adrien Brody Should win: Colman Domingo Should have been nominated: Hugh Grant, Heretic
BEST ACTRESS Cynthia Erivo, Wicked Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez Mikey Madison, Anora Demi Moore, The Substance Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
Will and should win: Mikey Madison Could win: Demi Moore Should have been nominated: Juliette Gariépy, Red Rooms
Ensemble in a Drama Sing Sing While Colman Domingo and Clarence Macklin have rightly gotten the praise for standing out in this ensemble, the whole cast – most of whom are formerly incarcerated amateurs – are astonishing and authentic. If it weren’t for them, the film would be the worst possible version of this story: faux-inspirational.
Actor in a Drama David Dastmalchian, Late Night with the Devil Look, I could wax rhapsodic about Adrien Brody in The Brutalist, but he already has a good chance to pick up his second Oscar on Sunday. So instead I’ll shine a light on a guy who’s been putting in the work for more than 15 years. Ever since his debut in a memorable scene in The Dark Knight, he’s achieved a pretty solid balance. He’ll deliver solid character work in more independent fare and then make an impression in big blockbusters like Dune and The Suicide Squad. But this film, which he co-produced, gave him a rare lead role, and he makes the most of it. As the bereaved talk show host desperate for ratings, his grip on reality and control of his show slowly slip away in real time, making for one of the most incredible experiences in horror this year.
Actress in a Drama Juliette Gariépy, Red Rooms Speaking of incredible horror experiences, there’s really nothing like Red Rooms, which manages to create a completely disturbing world without ever showing any violence onscreen. It takes a long time to reveal why Kelly-Anne is so invested in this serial killer’s trial, and it wouldn’t have been worth the wait if we hadn’t been drawn into her obsession, one which eventually consumes her whole life.
