BEST PICTURE
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
It Was Just an Accident
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
Dark Horse: Bugonia
Long Shot: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Total Shock: Weapons
The skinny: After all the festivals, all the precursors (except WGA), we’re back where we started. Despite some legitimate criticism and a lot of idiotic pearl-clutching, One Battle After Another remains the front-runner. It’s the movie of the moment and I would be truly shocked if anything has a chance at unseating it, even on a preferential ballot.
Eight of these films are about as close to sure things as you can get, but those last two slots are tricky. There will be only room for one jaw-dropping blockbuster, and right now I’m leaning F1 over Avatar: Fire and Ash, given the former’s nod at the PGAs. The 10th slot will go to Train Dreams or Bugonia. The latter has a guaranteed acting nod, but doesn’t have as much broad support as past Yorgos Lanthimos films. People who love Train Dreams really love it. And while the months-long campaign for Amy Madigan will pay off, I don’t see Weapons gaining much traction outside the Supporting Actress category.
BEST DIRECTOR
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Dark Horse: Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein
Long Shot: Kleber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent
Total Shock: Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice
The skinny: Our big change here is one of the Safdie brothers, who made it into the DGA five. That means all the other internationally acclaimed filmmakers besides Jafar Panahi are on the outside looking in. That includes previous winner Guillermo Del Toro, as well as Joachim Trier, Kleber Mendonça Filho, and Park Chan-wook. If it were up to me, the latter would get in over Zhao.
BEST ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Dark Horse: Jesse Plemons, Bugonia
Long Shot: Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Total Shock: Hugh Jackman, Song Sung Blue
The skinny: Oh, my beloved Ethan Hawke. We’ve been here before. You should have been nominated (and won) for First Reformed, but the Oscars were more enamored with Rami Malek lip-syncing Freddie Mercury. This feels more likely for you, given Sony Pictures Classics track record with (especially older) Academy voters. But Jesse Plemons is hot on your heels, long overdue for his first nod. It will be one of you, not both of you, sadly.
There is an outside possibility that Train Dreams‘ status as a Best Picture nominee pushes Edgerton to the forefront, but that seems unlikely. Yes, even more unlikely than Hugh Jackman getting nominated again for a musical.
BEST ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Dark Horse: Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
Long Shot: Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Total Shock: Jennifer Lawrence, Die My Love
The skinny: Ingenue Chase Infiniti now seems like a lock for a nomination, which puts One Battle After Another at five acting nods, something that hasn’t happened in decades. But that also means none of the ladies playing moms struggling with depression and mental illness can make it in. While some of this is a case of too many great nominees for five slots, part of this is definitely on Searchlight absolutely botching their campaign for The Testament of Ann Lee.
