BEST PICTURE
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Dark Horse: The Color Purple
Long Shot: Air
Total Shock: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The skinny: These 10 have been in place for a while now. Despite a Best Ensemble nomination at the SAG Awards, it will take a miracle for The Color Purple to make it in here. Air‘s stayed on the periphery for almost a year, and if it was a serious contender it would have picked up *something* by now.
BEST DIRECTOR
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Dark Horse: Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
Long Shot: Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Total Shock: Hayao Miyazaki, The Boy and the Heron
The skinny: Payne made the DGA’s final five, but I don’t think this is his year, especially with two strong international contenders in Justine Triet and Jonathan Glazer (not to mention Yorgos Lanthimos). And besides, if any movie accused of being slight is getting a Directing nomination, it will be Barbie.
BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Dark Horse: Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
Long Shot: Barry Keoghan, Saltburn
Total Shock: Zac Efron, The Iron Claw
The skinny: If Andrew Scott’s not nominated – and that’s looking increasingly lightly – I think you’ll have to blame Searchlight for releasing All of Us Strangers so late. He had too short a runway to campaign against the insanely stacked competition.
It remains to be seen if there’s a Saltburn contingent that could turn the divisive but much-discussed film into a surprise contender. But the fact that it’s just sitting on Prime and being memed daily certainly has to be an asset.
Now, let’s pour one out for Zac Efron’s best performance, which will go unheralded, just like the movie it’s in.
BEST ACTRESS
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Dark Horse: Annette Bening, Nyad
Long Shot: Greta Lee, Past Lives
Total Shock: Natalie Portman, May December
The skinny: Seeing May December go from critical darling to persona non grata in the awards race is one of the more fascinating developments of recent years. Another Netflix contender (Nyad) has seen its stock rise thanks to two SAG nominations, but I think Hüller still takes Bening’s place in the final five. That means Greta Lee – Past Lives‘ best hope at an acting nod – will just have to wonder what could have been.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Charles Melton, May December
Dark Horse: Willem Dafoe or Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Long Shot: Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
Total Shock: Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry
The skinny: With May December‘s descent, there’s a possibility even Charles Melton – the best part of the film – won’t make it in for a fascinating ingenue-vs.-old pro showdown again Robert Downey Jr. But I’m still holding out hope he’ll hear his name called next week.
That creates a conundrum for Poor Things. In weaker years, both Dafoe and Ruffalo would have been nominated, but it’s possible neither of them will. The former picked up the SAG nod, but the latter has gotten stronger reviews for his wild comedic turn as a horny, immature lawyer. Right now I think they’ll cancel each other out.
And that means another newcomer won’t be a nominee. Sessa, who’d never acted in film before The Holdovers, was a revelation. But there’s just too much competition.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Penélope Cruz, Ferrari
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Dark Horse: Julianne Moore, May December
Long Shot: America Ferrara, Barbie
Total Shock: Rosamund Pike, Saltburn
The skinny: As usual, the hardest category to predict. I could have gotten all five nominees correct just as easily as I could have gotten only one. This is Randolph’s to lose, though we’ll see how the campaign goes in the next two months.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives
Dark Horse: Saltburn
Long Shot: Origin
Total Shock: Dream Scenario
The skinny: This five feels right, but picking a winner feels nearly impossible. They’re all good scripts, and a few are all-timers. This is a good problem to have.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
American Fiction
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Dark Horse: The Zone of Interest
Long Shot: All of Us Strangers
Total Shock: Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
The skinny: With Barbie officially being declared adapted, it’s definitely getting in, but at the expense of three very smart adaptations. More proof this was a great year for film.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Suzume
*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Fallen Leaves (Finland)
The Taste of Things (France)
Society of the Snow (Spain)
20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine)
The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
American Symphony
Beyond Utopia
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
20 Days in Mariupol
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Asteroid City
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
*BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
*BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
BEST FILM EDITING
Anatomy of a Fall
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
*BEST SOUND
Ferrari
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
*BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
The Boy and the Heron
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
*BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
“It Never Went Away” (American Symphony)
“I’m Just Ken” (Barbie)
“What Was I Made For? (Barbie)
“Wazhazhe (A Song for My People)” (Killers of the Flower Moon)
“Road to Freedom” (Rustin)
Multiple nominations:
12 – Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
9 – Barbie, Poor Things
6 – Maestro
5 – Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest
4 – American Fiction, The Holdovers
3 – Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2 – 20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony, The Boy and the Heron, Ferrari, May December, Past Lives, Rustin
*shortlisted category