BEST PICTURE
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Will win: Oppenheimer
Could win: Barbie
Should win: The Zone of Interest
Should have been nominated: All of Us Strangers
The skinny: Barbenheimer was the big story of 2023, so it’s appropriate it will come down to the two biggest movies of the year for Best Picture. But by this point it’s not much of a race anymore. Barbie‘s surprise misses in Director and Actress show there’s not quite as much love for the runaway hit among the Academy as there was in the general public. And now that Oppenheimer has won pretty much every precursor, it looks like this race is over. And that’s fine! It’s easily the best live-action movie put out by a major studio this past year. It’s no Zone of Interest, but that movie’s a one-of-one.
BEST DIRECTING
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Will win: Christopher Nolan
Could and should win: Jonathan Glazer
Should have been nominated: Celine Song, Past Lives
The skinny: No matter what happens in Best Picture, Nolan’s had this locked up for a long time. A DGA win just confirmed what we already knew.
BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Will win: Cillian Murphy
Could win: Paul Giamatti
Should win: Jeffrey Wright
Should have been nominated: Barry Keoghan, Saltburn
The skinny: A solid lineup with actors I like. But while I would hardly call Murphy undeserving, he’s not the most impressive part of a very impressive film. I’d rather one of his closest competitors win this year. Both Wright and Giamatti have been reliable character actors for decades, both bringing their special talents to two thorny but lovable lead parts. And as much as Cooper is hungry for that Oscar, I’d easily swap him out for Barry Keoghan, the best part of the much-discussed Saltburn.
BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Will and should win: Lily Gladstone
Could win: Emma Stone
Should have been nominated: Margot Robbie, Barbie
The skinny: It seemed like Lily Gladstone had this all sewn up. But then more people finally saw Poor Things and Emma Stone (a previous winner for La La Land) pulled ahead. But a SAG win sealed the deal for Lily, one of my favorite actresses of the last few years. Her acceptance speech should be one for the ages.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Will and should win: Robert Downey Jr
Could win: Mark Ruffalo
Should have been nominated: Charles Melton, May December
The skinny: As excellent as this lineup is, excluding Melton is awards malpractice. Even in a movie that presents actors as craven, unfeeling parasites, Melton is astonishing. So now we’re back to where we were in the summer, with Downey cruising to victory. Again, nothing wrong with that, even if I think more about the smaller turns by Matt Damon and David Krumholtz.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
America Ferrera, Barbie
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Will and should win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Could win: Jodie Foster
Should have been nominated: Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
The skinny: Certainly one of the odder lineups in recent memory, but it was genuinely a weaker year for this category. Randolph is easily the frontrunner here, and she’d be my personal pick. I’d also swap Ferrera (not even the third-best performance in Barbie) for Rachel McAdams in Kelly Fremon Craig’s unsung Judy Blume adaptation.
BEST WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives
Will and should win: Anatomy of a Fall
Could win: The Holdovers
Should have been nominated: Asteroid City
The skinny: Nominating Maestro in this category, like in Best Picture, is a sign of weakness. Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City deserved a nod here (or anywhere, for that matter) much more. But that would just make picking a winner that much harder. The Holdovers and Past Lives are the most nakedly emotional of the scripts, but I think the much more challenging Anatomy of a Fall will pull off the feat, becoming one of the rare foreign language films to win a writing award from the Academy.
BEST WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Will win: American Fiction
Could win: Oppenheimer
Should win: The Zone of Interest
Should have been nominated: Killers of the Flower Moon
The skinny: Since the WGA Awards won’t be handed out until well after the Oscars, all we really have to go on is the BAFTAs. That’s a tricky proposition in recent years, but there’s no reason to think Cord Jefferson’s brilliant satire won’t win this award. Unless of course Oppenheimer pulls off a clean sweep.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Will win: The Boy and the Heron
Could and should win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Should have been nominated: N/A
The skinny: This is still a coin flip here. I would not advise betting on this one. A victory for The Boy and the Heron would mark the great Hayao Miyazaki’s second win in this category, tying him with several Pixar animators and putting him right behind Pete Docter. A victory for Across the Spider-Verse would mark the first non-Toy Story sequel to win. It won the Annie, but that doesn’t always match here. So I’m going with Miyazaki. There will definitely be another animated Spider-Man movie. But there might not be another Miyazaki movie.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany)
Io Capitano (Italy)
Perfect Days (Japan)
Society of the Snow (Spain)
The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
Will and should win: The Zone of Interest
Could win: Society of the Snow
Should have been nominated: N/A (Didn’t see Fallen Leaves or The Taste of Things)
The skinny: It’s not a race, nor should it be. The Zone of Interest is the best movie of 2023. It should at least win something.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
20 Days in Mariupol
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
Will and should win: 20 Days in Mariupol
Could win: The Eternal Memory
Should have been nominated: Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
The skinny: There’s no music documentary up this year, so this Oscar is once again going to a movie that’s appropriately damning of the Putin regime. It’s a vital work, and one would hope voters would see the parallels between Putin’s war crimes and Benjamin Netanyahu’s.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nai Nai & Wai Po
Will win: The ABCs of Book Banning
Could win: Nai Nai & Wai Po
Should win: N/A
Should have been nominated: N/A
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
The After
Invincible
Knights of Fortune
Red, White and Blue
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Will and should win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Could win: Red, White and Blue
Should have been nominated: N/A
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
War Is Over!
Will win: Letter to a Pig
Could win: Pachyderme
Should win: N/A
Should have been nominated: N/A
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Will and should win: Poor Things
Could win: Barbie
Should have been nominated: Asteroid City
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Will win: Barbie
Could and should win: Poor Things
Should have been nominated: Asteroid City
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
Will win: Maestro
Could win: Poor Things
Should win: Society of the Snow
Should have been nominated: Beau Is Afraid
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Will and should win: Oppenheimer
Could win: Poor Things
Should have been nominated: The Zone of Interest
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning
Napoleon
Will and should win: Godzilla Minus One
Could win: The Creator
Should have been nominated: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
BEST FILM EDITING
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Will and should win: Oppenheimer
Could win: Anatomy of a Fall
Should have been nominated: John Wick: Chapter 4
BEST SOUND
The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
Will win: Oppenheimer
Could win: Maestro
Should win: The Zone of Interest
Should have been nominated: The Killer
BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Will and should win: Oppenheimer
Could win: Killers of the Flower Moon
Should have been nominated: The Boy and the Heron
BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
“The Fire Inside” (Flamin’ Hot)
“I’m Just Ken” (Barbie)
“It Never Went Away” (American Symphony)
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” (Killers of the Flower Moon)
“What Was I Made For?” (Barbie)
Will win: “What Was I Made For?”
Could and should win: “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)”
Should have been nominated: “Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven)” (Asteroid City)
Winners:
20 Days in Mariupol – Documentary Feature
American Fiction – Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Anatomy of a Fall – Writing (Original Screenplay)
Barbie – Costume Design, Music (Original Song)
The Boy and the Heron – Animated Feature
Godzilla Minus One – Visual Effects
The Holdovers – Supporting Actress
Killers of the Flower Moon – Actress
Maestro – Makeup & Hairstyling
Oppenheimer – Picture, Directing, Actor, Supporting Actor, Cinematography, Film Editing, Sound, Music (Original Score)
Poor Things – Production Design
The Zone of Interest – International Feature
Losers: Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Creator, El Conde, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Io Capitano, Killers of the Flower Moon, May December, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Napoleon, Nimona, Nyad, Past Lives, Perfect Days, Robot Dreams, Rustin, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Teachers’ Lounge, To Kill a Tiger