
BEST PICTURE
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
TÁR
Top Gun: Maverick
The Woman King
Women Talking
Falling off: Armageddon Time, She Said, White Noise
Rising star: Triangle of Sadness
The skinny: Despite underperforming even last year’s flop West Side Story, it still feels like The Fabelmans is on top. Everything else is too divisive. Of course, I’ve been wrong with this line of thinking before.

BEST DIRECTOR
Damien Chazelle, Babylon
Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Todd Field, TÁR
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Falling off: Noah Baumbach
Rising star: S.S. Rajamouli, RRR
The skinny: At this point, it feels like only Spielberg is secured a slot, with everything else up for grabs. Yes, that even includes a lone nomination for RRR.

BEST ACTOR
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Hugh Jackman, The Son
Bill Nighy, Living
Falling off: Adam Driver
Rising star: Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans
The skinny: I’m not sure why Hugh Jackman is still here. The Son has vanished from all discourse. But he’s still well-liked and Sony Pictures Classics has pulled off miracles before. Still, this is Fraser’s award to lose.

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Falling off: Carey Mulligan (moved to Supporting)
Rising star: Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
The skinny: Are people prepared for Olivia Colman to sneak in at the expense of Danielle Deadwyler? It’s certainly possible, though the SAG nominations will make this a lot clearer.
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