
BEST PICTURE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
TÁR
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
Dark Horse: Triangle of Sadness
Long Shot: The Whale
Total Shock: RRR
The skinny: It’s a little funny to me after all the late surges (All Quiet on the Western Front), bad reviews (Babylon) and a weak awards showing (Women Talking), it’s the autobiographical film by a master director that’s still leading after all this time. There’s still time for any of those three to be replaced by Triangle of Sadness, which still has the Palme d’Or, strong support from international voters and a recent induction into the Criterion Collection on its side. But it could also be The Whale that sneaks in. It’s the one legitimate arthouse hit of awards season and assured nominations in Actor, Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay could push it into the top category. That still leaves RRR on the outside, despite a recent wave of support and strategic screenings for Academy voters.

BEST DIRECTOR
Damien Chazelle, Babylon
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Todd Field, TÁR
Dark Horse: Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Long Shot: Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick
Total Shock: Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave
The skinny: Everyone but Chazelle is a DGA nominee this year, and I think his biggest effort to date will still be rewarded. But he’s easily the most vulnerable. So who could get that last spot? Sarah Polley would be a welcome addition, especially since she’s never been nominated and would add to the still far-too-small number of female nominees in this category. It could be DGA nominee Kosinski, though that still seems like a surprise. And Park is overdue and just delivered his best movie yet. But the directors of All Quiet on the Western Front (Edward Berger) and Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Östlund) seem poised to overtake him.

BEST ACTOR
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
Dark Horse: Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Long Shot: Adam Sandler, Hustle
Total Shock: Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto
The skinny: While it felt like Fraser had this locked up all season long, he only has a handful of critics’ awards to show for it. He could still pull it off, but maybe the wave of goodwill – and the chance for bigger parts – will be award enough. It really feels like Colin’s in front with Butler nipping at his heels. But I swear to god, I’m sick of this award going to someone playing a real-life historical figure. (It’s happened eight times here since 2010. Eight!)

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dark Horse: Viola Davis, The Woman King
Long Shot: Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Total Shock: Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
The skinny: Blanchett’s either going to win her third Oscar, or Yeoh will win her first. It could go either way, but I’m expecting the former. The tricky part here is figuring out if Williams will end up here, in Supporting, or shut out altogether. I still think The Fabelmans has enough momentum for her to pick up her fifth nod, but it could be Viola Davis picking up her fifth instead. I don’t think the “grassroots” campaign for Andrea Riseborough will gain enough traction, though she seems more likely to pick up an Independent Spirit Award now.

























