Oscar Picks: December 2022

BEST PICTURE
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
TÁR
Top Gun: Maverick
The Woman King
Women Talking

Falling off: Armageddon Time, She Said, White Noise
Rising star: Triangle of Sadness

The skinny: Despite underperforming even last year’s flop West Side Story, it still feels like The Fabelmans is on top. Everything else is too divisive. Of course, I’ve been wrong with this line of thinking before.

BEST DIRECTOR
Damien Chazelle, Babylon
Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Todd Field, TÁR
Sarah Polley, Women Talking

Falling off: Noah Baumbach
Rising star: S.S. Rajamouli, RRR

The skinny: At this point, it feels like only Spielberg is secured a slot, with everything else up for grabs. Yes, that even includes a lone nomination for RRR.

BEST ACTOR
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Hugh Jackman, The Son
Bill Nighy, Living

Falling off: Adam Driver
Rising star: Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans

The skinny: I’m not sure why Hugh Jackman is still here. The Son has vanished from all discourse. But he’s still well-liked and Sony Pictures Classics has pulled off miracles before. Still, this is Fraser’s award to lose.

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Falling off: Carey Mulligan (moved to Supporting)
Rising star: Olivia Colman, Empire of Light

The skinny: Are people prepared for Olivia Colman to sneak in at the expense of Danielle Deadwyler? It’s certainly possible, though the SAG nominations will make this a lot clearer.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Tom Hanks, Elvis
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

Falling off: Anthony Hopkins (for Armageddon Time)
Rising star: Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

The skinny: I still have absolutely no idea what’s going to happen here. Ke Huy Quan has won most of the awards, and while I’m happy for him, it feels more like a career-long congratulations than an award for this specific performance. It’s entirely possible he’s the only one of this quintet to receive a nomination.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Claire Foy, Women Talking
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Jean Smart, Babylon

Falling off: Dolly de Leon, Frances McDormand
Rising star: Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

The skinny: As great as Hsu is in the most talked-about film of the year, Jamie Lee Curtis has never been nominated, and she’s likely to be the one to get nominated. Then again, if Women Talking can have two nominees, it’s possible for Everything Everywhere All at Once.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Nope
TÁR

Falling off: Armageddon Time
Rising star: Aftersun

The skinny: Still going to beat the drum for Nope, the only “fun” movie in this bunch. But Aftersun has a strong wave of support, and acting nominations seem out of reach.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Glass Onion
She Said
The Whale
White Noise
Women Talking

Falling off: None
Rising star: Living

The skinny: Glass Onion should run away with this, especially in a relatively weak year for this category. I’m hoping White Noise is this year’s Inherent Vice, and a tricky adaptation at least gets some credit. But if The Whale and She Said both get bumped, that will be just fine with me, since the writing in both is incredibly strained.

This entry was posted in Film, Oscars, Previews and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Comments are closed.