Oscar Guide 2013

And thus ends one of the wildest Oscar races in recent memory. You can follow me on Twitter (@kipjmooney) for live updates during the broadcast. Until then, here’s the lowdown on the eight major categories and my guesses in the rest.

The cast of Argo
BEST PICTURE

Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Until last weekend, I was still predicting a Lincoln sweep. But the tide has now turned completely for Argo, and I couldn’t be happier. I still hold out hope that Silver Linings Playbook manages more than one win (which is entirely possible), but it’s Argo all the way. For my money, it’s the far more interesting history lesson. I still think this will be a “spread the love” year, so I’m predicting no single film earns more than three Oscars. Also, a heads-up that you’ll be seeing Cloud Atlas in almost every “should have been here” category.

Will win: Argo
Could win: Lincoln
Should win: Silver Linings Playbook
Should have been here: Cloud Atlas

Steven Spielberg, director of Lincoln
BEST DIRECTOR

Michael Haneke, Amour
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

Well, since Ben Affleck’s not nominated, who’s going to win this year? If my Oscar dreams came true, it would be David O. Russell, but I think a Best Picture win would be miracle enough. I don’t think there’s enough love for any of the two newbies to win it, so I say Spielberg gets inducted into the three-timers club (Hi, William Wyler, Frank Capra and John Ford!) instead of Ang Lee, who’s certainly had the most eclectic filmography, but already has a trophy for Brokeback Mountain.

Will win: Steven Spielberg
Could win: Ang Lee
Should win: David O. Russell
Should have been here: Tom Tykwer & The Wachowskis, Cloud Atlas

Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln
BEST ACTOR

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight

All five performances here are mighty impressive, though I still would have liked to have seen Jack Black make it in as the charming murderer Bernie Tiede. Even so, this race is essentially over. Only Adrien Brody and Tom Hanks have successfully vanquished DDL and there’s no Holocaust survivor or AIDS victim among these nominees, though Hugh Jackman does a fair amount of suffering.

Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Could win: Hugh Jackman
Should win: Denzel Washington
Should have been here: Jack Black, Bernie

Julia Stiles, Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook
BEST ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

There’s been no more charming actress in recent years than Jennifer Lawrence, who only a few years ago was starring on The Bill Engvall Show. She’s now become one of the best, brightest and classiest stars in Hollywood and her performance in Silver Linings Playbook is some of the best work I’ve seen from any actress in years. The only thing going against her is her age, and the Academy could possibly feel they will have time later to honor her (and they will). In that case, the Oscar goes to French legend Emmanuelle Riva. But like the case for Amour in general, I find it hard to buy.

Will and should win: Jennifer Lawrence
Could win: Emmanuelle Riva
Should have been here: Helen Mirren, Hitchcock

Robert De Niro in Silver Linings Playbook
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

Of all the categories, this one is the most wide open. Comprised entirely of previous winners, there’s no impetus to reward someone who’s never been honored before. Grumpy cat Tommy Lee Jones took the SAG, but Christoph Waltz (whose nomination came at the expense of two great actual supporting performances in Django) got the BAFTA and Globe. I think the only one without a shot here is Alan Arkin, who I think should have been left out in favor of his co-star John Goodman. So what does that leave us with? I’m saying Harvey Weinstein campaigns hard once more to get a third Oscar for someone. That person would be De Niro, whose actually acting for the first time after years of phoning it in. Then again, he also did a movie with 50 Cent this year, so that could come back to haunt him.

Will win: Robert De Niro
Could and should win: Tommy Lee Jones
Should have been here: John Goodman, Argo

Anne Hathaway in Les Misérables
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

“I dreamed a dream that one day/I’d get the Oscar I deserved for Rachel Getting Married/I know you wanted to give/One to Kate Winslet/But come on, The Reader was terrible/So dull and creepy” And scene.

Will and should win: Anne Hathaway
Could win: Sally Field
Should have been here: Rebel Wilson, Pitch Perfect

Jamie Foxx and Leonardo DiCaprio in Django Unchained
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Amour
Django Unchained
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty

While I would love for Wes Anderson to finally have an Oscar on his mantle (especially after that abomination more than a decade ago when he lost to Julian Fellowes), this category hasn’t gone to a non-Best Picture nominee since Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. Mark Boal picked up the Writers’ Guild award, but it’s extremely rare for a writer to win again so quickly. Only Charles Brackett and Paddy Chayefsky have won twice within five years. So I’m guessing that Tarantino gets his second Oscar (which he should have won for Inglourious Basterds over Boal). But that’s all this is: a guess. Sadly, just like last year, the script that was snubbed (Looper) would have wiped the floor with these nominees.

Will win: Django Unchained
Could win: Zero Dark Thirty
Should win: Moonrise Kingdom
Should have been here: Looper

The cast of Argo
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook

As mentioned above, I think the Writers’ Guild win for Chris Terrio (who had previously won no major awards) seals the deal on Argo. It’s going to be the night’s big winner, as it were. Do I still keep my fingers crossed for Silver Linings Playbook? Yes, I do. Choke on your own verbosity, Tony Kushner!

Will win: Argo
Could and should win: Silver Linings Playbook
Should have been here: The Perks of Being a Wallflower


Merit:
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-it Ralph

Will and should win: Wreck-it Ralph
Could win: Frankenweenie
Should have been here: abstain

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Adam and Dog
Fresh Guacamole
Head over Heels
Maggie Simpson in “The Longest Daycare”
Paperman

Will and should win: Paperman
Could win: Adam and Dog
Should have been here: Cadaver

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Asad
Buzkashi Boys
Curfew
Death of a Shadow
Henry

Will win: Buzkashi Boys
Could win: Curfew
Should win: abstain
Should have been here: The Man Who Never Cried

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Inocente
Kings Point
Mondays at Racine
Open Heart
Redemption

Will win: Inocente
Could win: Open Heart
Should win and should have been here: abstain

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man

Will and should win: Searching for Sugar Man
Could win: 5 Broken Cameras
Should have been here: abstain

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Amour (Austria)
Kon-Tiki (Norway)
No (Chile)
A Royal Affair (Denmark)
War Witch (Canada)

Will win: Amour
Could win: No
Should win: abstain
Should have been here: The Intouchables

Sound:
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Before My Time” (Chasing Ice)
“Suddenly” (Les Misérables)
“Pi’s Lullaby” (Life of Pi)
“Skyfall” (Skyfall)
“Everybody Needs a Best Friend” (Ted)

Will and should win: “Skyfall”
Could win: “Before My Time”
Should have been here: “Ancora Qui” (Django Unchained)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Anna Karenina
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

Will and should win: Life of Pi
Could win: Argo
Should have been here: Cloud Atlas

BEST SOUND EDITING
Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

Will win: Skyfall
Could win: Life of Pi
Should win: Zero Dark Thirty
Should have been here: Prometheus

BEST SOUND MIXING
Argo
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

Will and should win: Les Misérables
Could win: Life of Pi
Should have been here: Wreck-it Ralph

Visuals:
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Avengers
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Prometheus
Snow White and the Huntsman

Will and should win: Life of Pi
Could win: The Avengers
Should have been here: Cloud Atlas

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

Will win: Life of Pi
Could and should win: Skyfall
Should have been here: Prometheus

BEST FILM EDITING
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Will win: Argo
Could win: Life of Pi
Should win: Zero Dark Thirty
Should have been here: Cloud Atlas

Crafts:
BEST MAKE-UP & HAIRSTYLING
Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Misérables

Will win: Les Misérables
Could and should win: Hitchcock
Should have been here: Cloud Atlas

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Anna Karenina
Les Misérables
Lincoln
Mirror Mirror
Snow White and the Huntsman

Will win: Anna Karenina
Could win: Les Misérables
Should win: Mirror Mirror
Should have been here: Moonrise Kingdom

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln

Will and should win: Anna Karenina
Could win: Les Misérables
Should have been here: Moonrise Kingdom

Winners:
Amour – 1 (Foreign Language Film)
Anna Karenina – 2 (Costume, Production Design)
Argo – 3 (Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Editing)
Django Unchained – 1 (Original Screenplay)
Les Misérables – 3 (Supporting Actress, Sound Mixing, Make-Up & Hair)
Life of Pi – 3 (Score, Visual Effects, Cinematography)
Lincoln – 2 (Director, Actor)
Searching for Sugar Man – 1 (Documentary Feature)
Silver Linings Playbook – 2 (Actress, Supporting Actor)
Skyfall – 2 (Song, Sound Editing)
Wreck-it Ralph – 1 (Animated Feature)

Losers:
5 Broken Cameras, The Avengers, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Brave, Chasing Ice, Flight, Frankenweenie, The Gatekeepers, Hitchcock, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, How to Survive a Plague, The Impossible, The Invisible War, Kon-Tiki, The Master, Mirror Mirror, Moonrise Kingdom, No, ParaNorman, The Pirates! Band of Misfits, Prometheus, A Royal Affair, The Sessions, Snow White and the Huntsman, Ted, War Witch, Zero Dark Thirty

This entry was posted in Awards, Oscars, Previews and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.


*