Final Oscar Picks 2025

Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo in Wicked
BEST PICTURE
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
A Different Man
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing
Wicked


Dark Horse: A Real Pain
Long Shot: The Substance
Total Shock: Juror #2

The skinny: I know eight of these are correct, but two – A Different Man and Nickel Boys – are probably dead wrong. I'm counting on the former being about actors and the latter being the most critically acclaimed movie of the year to be enough to put them among the final 10. But they're likely to be pushed out in favor of A Real Pain, which I thought fell just short of greatness, and The Substance, which seemingly has just as many fans as haters.
Brady Corbet
BEST DIRECTOR
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Edward Berger, Conclave
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Ramell Ross, Nickel Boys

Dark Horse: James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
Long Shot: Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Total Shock: Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

The skinny: If Nickel Boys misses in Best Picture, Ramell Ross will not find himself an Oscar nominee again (he was previously nominated for the lyrical documentary Hale County This Morning, This Evening). It would probably be a bad look for this line-up to be all white guys, but A Complete Unknown has the momentum, and the always reliable James Mangold picked up a DGA nod. But the most likely female nominee is Coralie Fargeat, and The Substance would have to be nominated for Best Picture first.
Timothée Chalamet (center) in A Complete Unknown
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

Dark Horse: Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Long Shot: Daniel Craig, Queer
Total Shock: Hugh Grant, Heretic

The skinny: Sebastian Stan finds himself in an unusual position. He's got two acclaimed performances. A Different Man is the more complex of the two, but with Trump taking office again this week, a movie critical of him may draw fresh eyes. If the former has the success I'm currently predicting, he's in. But Stan has been very open about how Hollywood has refused to do big Q&A's and events with him out of fear, which has apparently drawn him a lot of sympathy. But it's also possible that means his two performances cancel each other out. And that would lead Daniel Craig or Hugh Grant – two beloved British actors who have never been nominated before – securing either of their films' lone nominations.
Mikey Madison in Anora
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance

Dark Horse: Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl
Long Shot: Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
Total Shock: Zendaya, Challengers

The skinny: There are seven women competing for five spots. Two divisive musicals are basically guaranteed nominations, and Mikey Madison still looks poised to run away with this. So that means only one woman in her 50s born outside North America (Jean-Baptiste or Torres) will make it, and only one woman in a movie about how showbiz has little use for women of a certain age (Moore or Anderson) will make it. And none of those would be nearly as fun as Zendaya in Challengers.
Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

Dark Horse: Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Long Shot: Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Total Shock: Adam Pearson, A Different Man

The skinny: Culkin has had this sewn up since A Real Pain premiered at Sundance a year ago. But who else will make it? I wouldn't be shocked if none of these fine performers makes the final list. That could leave an opening for Culkin's Succession co-star Jeremy Strong, who even detractors of The Apprentice agree was the film's strongest aspect.

Speaking of a film's strongest aspect, I'm surprised how quickly Denzel's chances seem to have evaporated. The film should pick up at least one below-the-line nod, but given some questionable nods Denzel has picked up in years past, this should have been a no-brainer. And once again, if A Different Man plays as strongly as I suspect, there's even a chance for Adam Pearson to sneak in.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Dark Horse: Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Long Shot: Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez
Total Shock: Joan Chen, Dìdi

The skinny: There are only two guarantees here: Grande and Saldaña. After that, it's anyone's guess. Gomez sticks out like a sore thumb in Emilia Pérez, but that film's inexplicable popularity among awards bodies could raise her profile. That will likely shut out some nominees in smaller films, with past nominee Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor on shaky ground. And it's going to be very weird for a project like The Last Showgirl, which seemingly existed solely to get Pam Anderson an Oscar nod, to wind up with recent winner Jamie Lee Curtis as its lone nominee.
Guy Pearce, Adrien Brody and Isaach de Bankolé in The Brutalist
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora
The Brutalist
A Different Man
Hard Truths
A Real Pain


Dark Horse: The Substance
Long Shot: Challengers
Total Shock: I Saw the TV Glow

The skinny: This really feels like our five. If Amazon hadn't done such a lousy job this awards season, Challengers could have been up for more than Score and Film Editing, but here we are. The Substance is a strong challenger itself, having picked up the same award at Cannes. But its script is its weakest aspect, hitting the same metaphorical points over and over and over. But it's not like that's stopped voters before. Instead, they should look to the year's best movie: a deeply personal yet deeply relatable coming-of-age story.
Brían F. O'Bryne and Ralph Fiennes in Conclave
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing


Dark Horse: Wicked
Long Shot: Hit Man
Total Shock: Oh, Canada

The skinny: A pretty boring slate, only in the sense that these are also Best Picture nominees. Wicked looms as a threat, and if it makes it in, this would be the first time two musicals have competed in this category since the '60s. A much more intriguing option would be to follow the WGA's lead and nominate Hit Man, one of the year's most entertaining and clever movies. Or give Paul Schrader some more kudos with his strong adaptation of Russell Banks's Foregone.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot


*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
I’m Still Here (Brazil)
Emilia Pérez (France)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
Flow (Latvia)
Armand (Norway)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Daughters
No Other Land
Soundtrack to a Coup d’état
Union
Will & Harper


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Wicked


BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Wicked


*BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
A Different Man
Emilia Pérez
Nosferatu
Wicked


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nickel Boys
Nosferatu


*BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Better Man
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Twisters
Wicked


BEST FILM EDITING
Anora
Challengers
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez


*BEST SOUND
Alien: Romulus
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Wicked


*BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
The Brutalist
Challengers
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Wicked


*BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
“El Mal” (Emilia Pérez)
“Mi Camino” (Emilia Pérez)
“Sick in the Head” (Kneecap)
“Tell Me It’s You” (Mufasa: The Lion King)
“The Journey” (The Six Triple Eight)
Multiple nominations:
11 - Emilia Pérez
9 – The Brutalist, Conclave
8 – Wicked
7 – Dune: Part Two
6 – Anora
5 – A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys
4 – A Different Man, Nosferatu, Sing Sing
2 – Challengers, Flow, Hard Truths, A Real Pain

*shortlisted category
This entry was posted in Awards, Film, Oscars, Previews and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Comments are closed.