BEST PICTURE Anora The Brutalist A Complete Unknown Conclave A Different Man Dune: Part Two Emilia Pérez Nickel Boys Sing Sing Wicked
Dark Horse: A Real Pain Long Shot: The Substance Total Shock: Juror #2
The skinny: I know eight of these are correct, but two – A Different Man and Nickel Boys – are probably dead wrong. I'm counting on the former being about actors and the latter being the most critically acclaimed movie of the year to be enough to put them among the final 10. But they're likely to be pushed out in favor of A Real Pain, which I thought fell just short of greatness, and The Substance, which seemingly has just as many fans as haters.
BEST DIRECTOR Sean Baker, Anora Brady Corbet, The Brutalist Edward Berger, Conclave Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez Ramell Ross, Nickel Boys
Dark Horse: James Mangold, A Complete Unknown Long Shot: Coralie Fargeat, The Substance Total Shock: Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
The skinny: If Nickel Boys misses in Best Picture, Ramell Ross will not find himself an Oscar nominee again (he was previously nominated for the lyrical documentary Hale County This Morning, This Evening). It would probably be a bad look for this line-up to be all white guys, but A Complete Unknown has the momentum, and the always reliable James Mangold picked up a DGA nod. But the most likely female nominee is Coralie Fargeat, and The Substance would have to be nominated for Best Picture first.
BEST ACTOR Adrien Brody, The Brutalist Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown Colman Domingo, Sing Sing Ralph Fiennes, Conclave Sebastian Stan, A Different Man
Dark Horse: Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice Long Shot: Daniel Craig, Queer Total Shock: Hugh Grant, Heretic
The skinny: Sebastian Stan finds himself in an unusual position. He's got two acclaimed performances. A Different Man is the more complex of the two, but with Trump taking office again this week, a movie critical of him may draw fresh eyes. If the former has the success I'm currently predicting, he's in. But Stan has been very open about how Hollywood has refused to do big Q&A's and events with him out of fear, which has apparently drawn him a lot of sympathy. But it's also possible that means his two performances cancel each other out. And that would lead Daniel Craig or Hugh Grant – two beloved British actors who have never been nominated before – securing either of their films' lone nominations.
BEST ACTRESS Cynthia Erivo, Wicked Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths Mikey Madison, Anora Demi Moore, The Substance
Dark Horse: Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl Long Shot: Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here Total Shock: Zendaya, Challengers
The skinny: There are seven women competing for five spots. Two divisive musicals are basically guaranteed nominations, and Mikey Madison still looks poised to run away with this. So that means only one woman in her 50s born outside North America (Jean-Baptiste or Torres) will make it, and only one woman in a movie about how showbiz has little use for women of a certain age (Moore or Anderson) will make it. And none of those would be nearly as fun as Zendaya in Challengers.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Yura Borisov, Anora Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Dark Horse: Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice Long Shot: Denzel Washington, Gladiator II Total Shock: Adam Pearson, A Different Man
The skinny: Culkin has had this sewn up since A Real Pain premiered at Sundance a year ago. But who else will make it? I wouldn't be shocked if none of these fine performers makes the final list. That could leave an opening for Culkin's Succession co-star Jeremy Strong, who even detractors of The Apprentice agree was the film's strongest aspect.
Speaking of a film's strongest aspect, I'm surprised how quickly Denzel's chances seem to have evaporated. The film should pick up at least one below-the-line nod, but given some questionable nods Denzel has picked up in years past, this should have been a no-brainer. And once again, if A Different Man plays as strongly as I suspect, there's even a chance for Adam Pearson to sneak in.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys Ariana Grande, Wicked Felicity Jones, The Brutalist Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Dark Horse: Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson Long Shot: Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez Total Shock: Joan Chen, Dìdi
The skinny: There are only two guarantees here: Grande and Saldaña. After that, it's anyone's guess. Gomez sticks out like a sore thumb in Emilia Pérez, but that film's inexplicable popularity among awards bodies could raise her profile. That will likely shut out some nominees in smaller films, with past nominee Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor on shaky ground. And it's going to be very weird for a project like The Last Showgirl, which seemingly existed solely to get Pam Anderson an Oscar nod, to wind up with recent winner Jamie Lee Curtis as its lone nominee.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Anora The Brutalist A Different Man Hard Truths A Real Pain
Dark Horse: The Substance Long Shot: Challengers Total Shock: I Saw the TV Glow
The skinny: This really feels like our five. If Amazon hadn't done such a lousy job this awards season, Challengers could have been up for more than Score and Film Editing, but here we are. The Substance is a strong challenger itself, having picked up the same award at Cannes. But its script is its weakest aspect, hitting the same metaphorical points over and over and over. But it's not like that's stopped voters before. Instead, they should look to the year's best movie: a deeply personal yet deeply relatable coming-of-age story.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY A Complete Unknown Conclave Emilia Pérez Nickel Boys Sing Sing
Dark Horse: Wicked Long Shot: Hit Man Total Shock: Oh, Canada
The skinny: A pretty boring slate, only in the sense that these are also Best Picture nominees. Wicked looms as a threat, and if it makes it in, this would be the first time two musicals have competed in this category since the '60s. A much more intriguing option would be to follow the WGA's lead and nominate Hit Man, one of the year's most entertaining and clever movies. Or give Paul Schrader some more kudos with his strong adaptation of Russell Banks's Foregone.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE Flow Inside Out 2 Memoir of a Snail Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl The Wild Robot
*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE I’m Still Here (Brazil) Emilia Pérez (France) The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany) Flow (Latvia) Armand (Norway)
*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE Daughters No Other Land Soundtrack to a Coup d’état Union Will & Harper
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN The Brutalist Conclave Dune: Part Two Nosferatu Wicked
BEST COSTUME DESIGN Conclave Dune: Part Two Gladiator II Nosferatu Wicked
*BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING Beetlejuice Beetlejuice A Different Man Emilia Pérez Nosferatu Wicked
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY The Brutalist Conclave Dune: Part Two Nickel Boys Nosferatu
*BEST VISUAL EFFECTS Better Man Dune: Part Two Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes Twisters Wicked
BEST FILM EDITING Anora Challengers Conclave Dune: Part Two Emilia Pérez
*BEST SOUND Alien: Romulus A Complete Unknown Dune: Part Two Emilia Pérez Wicked
*BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE) The Brutalist Challengers Conclave Emilia Pérez Wicked
*BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG) “El Mal” (Emilia Pérez) “Mi Camino” (Emilia Pérez) “Sick in the Head” (Kneecap) “Tell Me It’s You” (Mufasa: The Lion King) “The Journey” (The Six Triple Eight)
Multiple nominations: 11 - Emilia Pérez 9 – The Brutalist, Conclave 8 – Wicked 7 – Dune: Part Two 6 – Anora 5 – A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys 4 – A Different Man, Nosferatu, Sing Sing 2 – Challengers, Flow, Hard Truths, A Real Pain