BEST PICTURE
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Django Unchained
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Misérables
Lincoln
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
To the Wonder
Zero Dark Thirty
The skinny: There won’t be 10 nominees this year, but it’s a stronger field than last year, so could we see nine again?
BEST DIRECTOR
P.T. Anderson, The Master
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Tom Hooper, Les Misérables
Terrence Malick, To the Wonder
Steve Spielberg, Lincoln
The skinny: All directors here essentially comes with their names pre-printed on the ballot.
BEST ACTOR
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Denzel Washington, Flight
The skinny: Washington has the requisite buzz for returning to a project that doesn’t involve Tony Scott, but he’ll face tough competition from Russell Crowe, playing the villanious Inspector Javert in Tom Hooper’s Les Misérables musical.
BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Won’t Back Down
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
The skinny: Good luck cracking this category, ladies, if you’re not one of the five listed here.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jim Broadbent, Cloud Atlas
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
The skinny: Few people have ever had as good a year as McConaughey is having (though Philip Seymour Hoffman and Josh Brolin both had incredible 2007s). This seems like the least Oscar-y of his roles, but it’s likely his best shot, as two of his lead performances (in Killer Joe and the still distributor-less Mud) will have a tough time in that always-crowded field. Don’t discount Bernie either.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, The Master
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Sally Field, Lincoln
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Won’t Back Down
The skinny: Always the hardest category to predict. Any, all or none of these nominees could find themselves announced Oscar morning. I think Hathaway’s the front-runner, especially given her terrific turn in The Dark Knight Rises. If she’s anywhere near as devastating in Les Mis as the trailer promises, it’s her race to lose.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Django Unchained
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Ruby Sparks
Zero Dark Thirty
The skinny: A great mix of comedy and drama, and a mighty good slate of films to boot.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Bernie
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The skinny: Conventional wisdom says films with a higher pedigree have the best shot, but you know some movie not lucky enough to get a Best Picture nod will be received here. In fact, I’m thinking several.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Brave
Ernest and Celestine
The Lorax
ParaNorman
Wreck-It Ralph
The skinny: I think the four big studios are safe gaining a nomination, but indie distributors (like scrappy upstart GKIDS) will have to duke it out for the last slot.
RANDOM SURE THINGS:
Best Costume Design: Les Misérables
Best Production Design: Anna Karenina
Best Visual Effects: The Avengers
Best Original Score: Brave
Best Cinematography: Prometheus