Oscar Guide 2023

If you asked me this time last year if a movie starring a mostly Asian/Asian-American cast, directed by the guys who made the (admittedly awesome) farting corpse movie, would be sweeping the Oscars, I’d have laughed in your face. But by my count, Everything Everywhere All at Once looks poised to dominate, with six Oscars (and possibly more). That would be the highest total for a single film since La La Land, which famously did not take home Best Picture, despite being announced as the winner.

As always, take my predictions with a grain of salt.

BEST PICTURE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking

Will and should win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should have been nominated: RRR

The skinny: A truly daring, original film is going to win Best Picture and dominate the whole show. So why am I not more excited? Part of it is fatigue. The movie came out more than a year ago, and also it’s basically won every single major prize, so there’s a feeling of inevitability here. But that shouldn’t take away from the massive achievement of my second-favorite movie of 2022. Only RRR was better.

BEST DIRECTING
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Todd Field, Tár
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness 

Will and should win: Daniels
Could win: Steven Spielberg
Should have been nominated: Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave 

The skinny: Four (well, five) first-time nominees plus Grandpa Steven. An excellent line-up, though I would have swapped Östlund for Park. Spielberg will one day win a third Directing Oscar, but it won’t be this year.

BEST ACTOR
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living 

Will win: Austin Butler
Could win: Brendan Fraser
Should win: Colin Farrell
Should have been nominated: Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto 

The skinny: Ever since that first photo of Brendan Fraser in all his prosthetics was released, it seemed like destiny that he’d win the Oscar on a wave of goodwill. But until SAG, he hadn’t won a single major award. While that carried major weight (no pun intended), it seems like voters will once again pick an actor playing a real person. This is certainly one of the better versions of that thing, though it’s probably my fifth-favorite performance here. Tops is Colin Farrell as the wounded party in an abruptly ended friendship.

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once 

Will win: Michelle Yeoh
Could and should win: Cate Blanchett 
Should have been nominated: Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande 

The skinny: It’s really a toss-up here. Blanchett is no doubt giving the best performance – of any gender in any category – this year. But she already has two Oscars to her name. Yeoh has been kicking ass for decades but only acknowledged for the first time this year. There will be a lot of hand-wringing if Blanchett does win, but it’s not as if Yeoh winning is any sort of tokenism. She’s magnificent as the time-jumping reluctant heroine of her own story. But voters should probably take a long look at themselves that they had three more spots but didn’t find room for another legend giving a stellar performance.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once 

Will win: Ke Huy Quan
Could win: Barry Keoghan 
Should win: Brendan Gleeson 
Should have been nominated: Justin Long, Barbarian

The skinny: Quan, who has dominated all awards season, is definitely winning here, and my feelings are a little more complicated. While he’s certainly terrific in the film, this feels like a little bit of Hollywood self-congratulations. It’s these same producers and executives who didn’t hire him for decades, these same actors whose union dropped his benefits during the pandemic. Quan seems far too nice and grateful use his speech to unleash some righteous fury, but he’d be well within his rights to do so. The only reason I wouldn’t want him to win is solely because I prefer Brendan Gleeson’s turn as the obsessive, self-mutilating musician who ends his friendship with his dull neighbor. Gleeson has been probably the single best character actor of the last 25 years, and he’d finally get his long overdue plaudits.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once 

Will win: Kerry Condon
Could win: Jamie Lee Curtis
Should win: Hong Chau
Should have been nominated: Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness 

The skinny: Once again the toughest category of the night. Angela Bassett crushed it in the Black Panther sequel, and is long overdue for the big award. Jamie Lee Curtis took home the SAG in a surprising victory. Hong Chau gives the best performance of this quintet, far outpacing the script she was given to work with. So who wins the big one? I say look to BAFTA, who awarded Irish actress Kerry Condon. Another piece of data in her favor? The last three winners in this category were in Best Picture nominees.

BEST WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Triangle of Sadness

Will and should win: Everything Everywhere All at Once 
Could win: The Banshees of Inisherin 
Should have been nominated: Decision to Leave 

The skinny: Even if EEAAO weren’t poised to win a ton of awards, this is the closest thing it has to a lock.

BEST WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion
Living
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
 

Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Could win: Women Talking
Should win: Glass Onion 
Should have been nominated: White Noise

The skinny: A weak-ish year (that thankfully didn’t include the back-patting of She Said) produces this lineup that could go anywhere. I’m leaning toward All Quiet on the Western Front, which will already have a pretty big night. But I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if any of the others win.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Pinocchio
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red 

Will win: Pinocchio
Could and should win: Turning Red
Should have been nominated: Apollo 10½ 

The skinny: Guillermo del Toro’s vision of Pinocchio, set in fascist Italy during World War II, would be the first stop-motion film to win this award since Wallace & Gromit: Curse of the Were-Rabbit nearly 20 years ago. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish is the only film here to have any box office success, and its fanbase seems to grow daily. But if anyone’s going to defeat the wooden boy, it’ll be the red panda from Pixar’s delightful, hilarious and moving Turning Red.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Close (Belgium)
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
EO (Poland) 

Will and should win: All Quiet on the Western Front 
Could win: EO 
Should have been nominated: Decision to Leave (South Korea) 

The skinny: What are we even doing here? Decision to Leave was one of 2022’s best movies full stop. To exclude it here after being shortlisted is one of the worst awards decisions of recent times. All Quiet on the Western Front is going to win, and that’s fine, but none of these are in the same league as Park Chan-wook’s thriller.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny 

Will win: Navalny
Could win: All That Breathes
Should win: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Should have been nominated: Moonage Daydream 

The skinny: Voters love three things in this category: music, animals and Russia. There aren’t any music docs since Brett Morgen’s David Bowie collage didn’t make the final five. So it’s down to All That Breathes, about a bird rescue in India, or Navalny, about Putin’s poisoned political rival. The latter won at PGA and BAFTA, so that’s where I’m leaning. Which is a shame because previous winner Laura Poitras made the best doc of the year.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The Elephant Whisperers
Haulout
How Do You Measure a Year?
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate

Will win: Haulout
Could win: Stranger at the Gate
Should win: N/A
Should have been nominated: N/A

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
An Irish Goodbye
Ivalu
Le Pupille
Night Ride
The Red Suitcase

Will win: Le Pupille
Could win: Ivalu
Should win: N/A
Should have been nominated: N/A

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
My Year of Dicks
An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

Will win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
Could win: An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
Should win: My Year of Dicks
Should have been nominated: N/A

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans

Will and should win: Babylon
Could win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should have been nominated: The Northman

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Will win: Elvis
Could win: Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Should win: Babylon
Should have been nominated: The Outfit

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale

Will win: Elvis
Could win: The Whale
Should win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should have been nominated: Crimes of the Future

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
All Quiet on the Western Front
Bardo
Elvis
Empire of Light
Tár

Will win: Elvis
Could and should win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should have been nominated: Top Gun: Maverick

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick

Will and should win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Could win: Top Gun: Maverick
Should have been nominated: Nope

BEST FILM EDITING
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick

Will and should win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could win: Elvis
Should have been nominated: The Fabelmans

BEST SOUND
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick

Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Could win: Top Gun: Maverick
Should win: The Batman
Should have been nominated: Babylon

BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans

Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Could and should win: Babylon
Should have been nominated: Nope

BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
“Applause” (Tell It Like a Woman)
“Hold My Hand” (Top Gun: Maverick)
“Lift Me Up” (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
“Naatu Naatu” (RRR)
“This Is a Life” (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Will win: “Lift Me Up”
Could win: “Hold My Hand”
Should win: “Naatu Naatu”
Should have been nominated: “New Body Rhumba” (White Noise)

Winners:
All Quiet on the Western Front – Writing (Adapted Screenplay), International Feature, Sound, Music (Original Score)
Avatar: The Way of Water – Visual Effects
Babylon – Production Design
The Banshees of Inisherin – Supporting Actress
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – Music (Original Song)
Elvis – Actor, Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Cinematography
Everything Everywhere All at Once – Picture, Directing, Actress, Supporting Actor, Writing (Original Screenplay), Film Editing
Navalny – Documentary Feature
Pinocchio – Animated Feature

Losers: All That Breathes; Argentina, 1985; Aftersun; Bardo; The Batman; Blonde; Causeway; Close; Empire of Light; EO; The Fabelmans; Fire of Love; Glass Onion; A House Made of Splinters; Living; Marcel the Shell with Shoes On; Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris; Puss in Boots: The Last Wish; The Quiet Girl; RRR; The Sea Beast; Tar; Tell It Like a Woman; To Leslie; Top Gun: Maverick; Triangle of Sadness; Turning Red; The Whale; Women Talking

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