Oscar Guide 2016

You thought the last few years were nailbiters? You ain’t seen nothing yet.

The cast of Spotlight
BEST PICTURE
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight

Will win: Spotlight
Could win: The Big Short
Should win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should have been here: Carol

The skinny: Once again, it comes down to the flip of a coin. This is the first time since 2004 where none of the guilds (actors, producers, directors) agreed on the best movie of the year. The actors liked Spotlight, the producers liked The Big Short and Alejandro Iñárritu improbably won back-to-back awards from the director. But I don’t see how an endurance contest like The Revenant wins here. And I’m less convinced by The Big Short, which is both timely and tremendously entertaining, can get enough votes to win it all. So it once again comes down to consensus, and I can’t think of anyone who doesn’t think Spotlight is one of the best movies of the year. I’m not quite as enthusiastic as most people, but this is a solidly crafted film featuring great acting, terrific writing, and a tremendous amount of empathy for the victims. But it’s so close this year, I wouldn’t count on a lock.

Tom Hardy and George Miller on the set of Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST DIRECTOR
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant
Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

Will and should win: George Miller
Could win: Alejandro G. Iñárritu
Should have been here: Todd Haynes, Carol

The skinny: Only two directors have won back-to-back Oscars, and it hasn’t happened since the ’50s. It’s certainly in play, but I don’t think the Academy is ready to put Iñárritu in the same company has John Ford and Joseph L. Mankiewicz. So who does that leave? Maybe Tom McCarthy, but his direction is far more subtle than just about any winner in recent memory. Adam McKay might be rewarded for taking a big leap forward. Lenny Abrahamson’s just happy to be here. So I think they give it to veteran director George Miller, who at 70 decided to revive his dormant Mad Max franchise and ended up making the wildest, most entertaining movie of the year.

Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant
BEST ACTOR
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Will and should win: Leonardo DiCaprio
Could win: Bryan Cranston
Should have been here: Jacob Tremblay, Room

The skinny: DiCaprio is a lock. He deserves it now, just like he’s deserved it at least twice before. Whether this is “bad for acting” is a topic for another time. Right now, it’s Leo’s.

Jacob Tremblay and Brie Larson in Room
BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Will and should win: Brie Larson
Could win: Saoirse Ronan
Should have been here: Nina Hoss, Phoenix

The skinny: An embarrassment of riches in this category. There wasn’t even room for Charlize Theron or Nina Hoss, much to my chagrin. But no actress took you through the emotional wringer quite like Brie Larson in Room. She was shamefully snubbed for Short Term 12 in 2013, but she’ll get redemption here.

Michael B. Jordan and Sylvester Stallone in Creed
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Will win: Sylvester Stallone
Could and should win: Mark Rylance
Should have been here: Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation

The skinny: Last year, I thought the Academy wouldn’t fall back into their old habits, getting sentimental over older actors or rewarding actors playing characters with diseases. What a fool I was. Unless there’s some miracle, Stallone has got this in the bag, to bookend his nominations for Rocky. Mark Rylance is the most deserving, and since Bridge of Spies is a Best Picture nominee, there’s a chance more people will see it and reward him accordingly. The X factor is Mark Ruffalo, a great actor but probably my fourth or fifth choice for this category from Spotlight. When everybody else in the film underplays, he goes over the top. But he’s clearly loved and has a defining “big scene,” which always helps.

Alicia Vikander is The Danish Girl
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Will win: Alicia Vikander
Could win: Rachel McAdams
Should win: Rooney Mara
Should have been here: Sarah Paulson, Carol

The skinny: Let’s call it out: There’s no reason Rooney Mara or Alicia Vikander should be in this category. Both of them have more screen time than their counterparts, both nominated in leading categories. That’s absurd. But Vikander is the ingénue this year. She’s by far the best part of The Danish Girl, and she’s even more magnificent in Ex Machina (which is the film she should have been nominated for). That all adds up to a win here and hopefully the start of a magnificent career.

The cast of Spotlight
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Inside Out
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton

Will win: Spotlight
Could win: Ex Machina
Should win: Inside Out
Should have been here: The Hateful Eight

The skinny: I don’t see how Spotlight doesn’t win here. It’s both dialogue-heavy and an engaging story. Personally, I didn’t find it that deep, but it’s a solid script. The more interesting choice is Ex Machina. Her won just two years ago, but it wasn’t competing against a probable Best Picture winner. But if they really want to go for it (and make me extremely happy in the process), they should give it to Inside Out. Not only would it be the first animated film to win a writing award, they’d be honoring a script that not only explains complex emotions in a way children can understand, but also happens to be funny and tear-jerking at just the right moments.

Ryan Gosling in The Big Short
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room

Will win: The Big Short
Could win: Room
Should win: Carol
Should have been here: Steve Jobs

The skinny: Let me just say I am completely baffled that Steve Jobs wasn’t nominated. Aaron Sorkin won for The Social Network and was nominated for Moneyball, but came up with nada here, for what was easily the best adapted screenplay of the year. So now that that’s out of the way, this is gonna be a cakewalk for The Big Short, leaving out all the nominees based on novels. This is a clever script that takes a nearly incomprehensible non-fiction book and turns it into an uproarious comedy.

The feelings of Inside Out
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Anomalisa
Boy & the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There

Will and should win: Inside Out
Could win: Anomalisa
Should have been here: Abstain

The skinny: Pixar rules once more. This time they totally deserve it.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Bear Story
Prologue
Sanjay’s Super Team
We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
World of Tomorrow

Will win: Sanjay’s Super Team
Could and should win: World of Tomorrow
Should have been here: Abstain

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Ave Maria
Day One
Everything Will Be Okay
Shok
Stutterer

Will win: Stutterer
Could win: Ave Maria
Should win and should have been here: Abstain

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Body Team 12
Chau, Beyond the Lines
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Last Day of Freedom

Will win: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
Could win: Body Team 12
Should win and should have been here: Abstain

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

Will win: Amy
Could win: Cartel Land
Should win: Abstain
Should have been here: Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Embrace of the Serpent (Colombia)
Mustang (France)
Son of Saul (Hungary)
Theeb (Jordan)
A War (Denmark)

Will win: Son of Saul
Could win: A War
Should win and should have been here: Abstain

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant

Will and should win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could win: The Revenant
Should have been here: Crimson Peak

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant

Will win: Cinderella
Could win: The Danish Girl
Should win: Carol
Should have been here: Crimson Peak

BEST MAKE-UP & HAIRSTYLING
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant

Will and should win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could win: The Revenant
Should have been here: Carol

BEST SOUND MIXING
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Will and should win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Should have been here: Love & Mercy

BEST SOUND EDITING
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Will and should win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Should have been here: Inside Out

BEST FILM EDITING
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Will win: The Big Short
Could and should win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should have been here: Steve Jobs

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario

Will and should win: The Revenant
Could win: Sicario
Should have been here: Steve Jobs

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Will and should win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Should have been here: Jupiter Ascending

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Will and should win: The Hateful Eight
Could win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Should have been here: Inside Out

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Earned It” (Fifty Shades of Grey)
“Manta Ray” (Racing Extinction)
“Simple Song #3” (Youth)
“’Til it Happens to You” (The Hunting Ground)
“Writing’s on the Wall” (Spectre)

Will win: “’Til it Happens to You”
Could win: “Manta Ray”
Should win: “Simple Song #3”
Should have been here: “Hey Baby Doll” (Danny Collins)

Winners:
Amy – Documentary Feature
The Big Short – Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing
Cinderella – Costume Design
Creed – Supporting Actor
The Danish Girl – Supporting Actress
The Hateful Eight – Original Score
The Hunting Ground – Original Song
Inside Out – Animated Feature
Mad Max: Fury Road – Director, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Make-Up & Hairstyling, Production Design
The Revenant – Actor, Cinematography
Room – Actress
Son of Saul – Foreign Language Film
Spotlight – Picture, Original Screenplay

Losers:
45 Years; The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared; Anomalisa; Boy & the World; Bridge of Spies; Brooklyn; Carol; Cartel Land; Cinderella; Embrace of the Serpent; Ex Machina; Fifty Shades of Grey; Joy; The Martian; Mustang; Racing Extinction; Shaun the Sheep Movie; Sicario; Spectre; Steve Jobs; Straight Outta Compton; Theeb; Trumbo; A War; What Happened, Miss Simone?; When Marnie Was There; Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom; Youth

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