BEST PICTURE
Judas and the Black Messiah
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
One Night in Miami…
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Dark Horse: Da 5 Bloods
Long Shot: Sound of Metal
Total Shock: Never Rarely Sometimes Always
The skinny: Proof that the Academy is stupid: They’ll have forgotten about Da 5 Bloods, which came out all the way back in June. Judas and the Black Messiah is the beneficiary of the lengthened eligibility period, and could end up with anywhere from one to six nominations, though only four seem likely. Given that this is such an unusual year, it is within the realm of possibility that there are nine or even 10 nominees, which is the only way I see Sound of Metal getting in here. Sadly, this means that a lot of smaller independent movies – some of which actually played in theaters before the pandemic hit! – are still going to get the shaft, including Never Rarely Sometimes Always, which will likely have to settle for a Best Original Screenplay nomination.
BEST DIRECTOR
David Fincher, Mank
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Dark Horse: Regina King, One Night in Miami…
Long Shot: Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
Total Shock: Kelly Reichardt, First Cow
The skinny: This slate matches the DGA nominees, which is not necessarily a guarantee the Oscars will go for the exact same group. I’m fond of The Trial of the Chicago 7, but letting Sorkin in over first-timer Regina King is absolute foolishness. It would be awesome if Fincher was also the only white dude, and Kelly Reichardt could finally get her do as one of this country’s finest filmmakers.
BEST ACTOR
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari
Dark Horse: Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Long Shot: Ben Affleck, The Way Back
Total Shock: Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
The skinny: Poor Delroy Lindo. He’s given a lifetime of great performances on screens big and small (He’s the one in that viral “So say it!” clip from The Good Fight). And his performance in Da 5 Bloods is the best in the film and one of the very best in any film this year. But like I said, it’s already been forgotten by most Academy members, so these will be our five. (Unless Sony Pictures Classics has screwed up worse than I thought, and Anthony Hopkins is in danger.)
Now, about that Borat sequel. It’s widely believed newcomer Maria Bakalova is a shoo-in for a Best Supporting Actress nod. While I think that’s true, the film has received even more recognition than expected, and not just for her performance. Baron Cohen won the Golden Globe for Actor in a Musical or Comedy (where Bakalova didn’t), and the film itself won Best Picture – Musical or Comedy. But now it’s also been nominated for Best Picture of the Year by the PGA. While I don’t think there’s any way it becomes a Best Picture nominee, that luck could extend to Best Actor, or it could even repeat its predecessor and pick up an Adapted Screenplay nod.
BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Dark Horse: Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot
Long Shot: Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
Total Shock: Radha Blank, The Forty-Year-Old Version
The skinny: While Rosamund Pike is coming on strong after a Golden Globe win, and with a movie likely seen by more people than all the other nominees’ films combined, I still think she’s on the outside looking in. If anyone’s in danger, it’s Kirby, whose film isn’t quite as old, but has faded, and seen its other possible nominees vanish over the last month. As beloved as Amy Adams is, I would be shocked if Hillbilly Elegy gets anything other than another nod for Glenn Close. But while the BAFTAs radically changed their eligibility rules – and thus can’t be used as a reliable predictor – Radha Blank has hung out on the fringes of awards season, picking up awards and nominations here and there for her semi-autobiographical comedy The Forty-Year-Old Version. Will that have been enough reason for the Academy to fire up Netflix and check it out? Probably. Will that be enough for her to get nominated? Probably not.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Jared Leto, The Little Things
Leslie Odom Jr, One Night in Miami…
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Dark Horse: Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Long Shot: Bill Murray, On the Rocks
Total Shock: Orion Lee, First Cow
The skinny: There seem to be four guaranteed spots, and one giant question mark. While Boseman had long resided there, I’m increasingly of the opinion (and not happy about it) that Da 5 Bloods blanks on Monday morning. While Boseman will definitely be recognized, going from zero career nods to two in the same year is practically unheard of. Scarlett Johansson did it last year, but those nods were from two Best Picture nominees. So are they actually going to nominate Jared fucking Leto for this garbage crime movie? Probably, though I’d rather have Bill Murray’s effortlessly charming turn in On the Rocks, or even better, Orion Lee in First Cow (even if it is category fraud).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
Dark Horse: Helena Zengel, News of the World
Long Shot: Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Total Shock: Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah
The skinny: And now we come to the craziest category of all. I don’t think Bakalova is a guarantee (even though she’s gotten all the necessary precursors). Everyone knows Close is long overdue, but Hillbilly Elegy has been the subject of nothing but scorn for months. Colman is an awards darling, but SPC has whiffed on its campaign to get The Father nominated for much besides Hopkins’ incredible performance. Foster came out of nowhere to win the Golden Globe, though few people have even heard of The Mauritanian. And I simply don’t trust the Academy to nominate great performances in a foreign-language movie. (See: their snubs of Shuzhen Zhao in The Farewell and anyone from Parasite.)
That means all bets are off. Another newcomer in Zengel? Seyfried finally getting nominated after missing out all season in what’s sure to be the most nominated film of the year? Or Fishback, who got very little attention this season until BAFTA? All three could end up as nominees.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Mank
Minari
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Dark Horse: Soul
Long Shot: Sound of Metal
Total Shock: Palm Springs
The skinny: It feels like an abundances of riches in this category. I wouldn’t be mad at this slate, but there are far more interesting contenders out there, including Soul, Sound of Metal and the wild, entertaining and clever Palm Springs.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Father
First Cow
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Nomadland
One Night in Miami…
Dark Horse: News of the World
Long Shot: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Total Shock: I’m Thinking of Ending Things
The skinny: Still going with my heart here and predicting First Cow will be nominated, even though it’s only gotten one major precursor (the USC Scripter Award). The winner there has gone on to win in this category eight out of the last nine years. But if it’s out, News of the World seems most likely to slot in. It’s been an awards threat all season, even with its muted critical reception and limited theatrical release. It’s just too bad they won’t go for something really out there like I’m Thinking of Ending Things.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Croods: A New Age
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul
Wolfwalkers
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
Another Round (Denmark)
Two of Us (France)
Night of the Kings (Ivory Coast)
Collective (Romania)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Collective
Crip Camp
My Octopus Teacher
Time
Welcome to Chechnya
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Emma.
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
News of the World
The Trial of the Chicago 7
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Emma.
Judas and the Black Messiah
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
BEST MAKE-UP & HAIRSTYLING
Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)
Emma
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Pinocchio
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Soul
Tenet
Welcome to Chechnya
BEST FILM EDITING
Mank
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
BEST SOUND
Greyhound
Mank
Nomadland
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Little Things
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Minari
Soul
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Turntables” (All In: The Fight for Democracy)
“Fight for You” (Judas and the Black Messiah)
“Io Si (Seen)” (The Life Ahead)
“Speak Now” (One Night in Miami…)
“Hear My Voice” (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Multiple nominations:
12 – Mank
9 – The Trial of the Chicago 7
7 – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari, Nomadland
5 – Promising Young Woman
4 – Judas and the Black Messiah, One Night in Miami…, Sound of Metal
3 – Emma., The Father, Soul
2 – Collective, The Little Things, The Midnight Sky, News of the World, Welcome to Chechnya