So here we are. Another year down in one of the tighest races in recent memory. So many great films will be forgotten, but many more will be honored. Here’s who I think will be nominated Thursday morning. As before, I’ll talk about each of the major categories, but the below-the-line stuff are total guesses. And I will never feel confident enough to guess the short-subject categories. An asterisk indicates the nominee most in danger of coming up short. Thanks, as always, to the insight from the crew over at In Contention.
BEST PICTURE
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel*
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Dark Horse: Skyfall
Long Shot: Amour
Total Shock: Cloud Atlas
The skinny: I really don’t think there will be 10 nominees this year, but each of my projected nominees has a strong legion of supporters. Many are predicting Skyfall will get in based on its box office success and Producers Guild nomination, but it’s exactly the kind of populist fare that so often gets passed over. There would have to be a large number of voters who want to honor it as the best movie of the year and as a tribute to the Bond movies. Good luck. The film in most danger, I feel, is Best Exotic, solely because the Academy’s older crowd likely had trouble with the online voting system. Also, there is a “blue shimmerer” of hope from me that Cloud Atlas could be nominated. If a divisive bad movie like Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close can get nominated, surely a divisive great movie like Cloud Atlas has a ghost of a chance.
BEST DIRECTOR
Ben Affleck, Argo
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Michael Haneke, Amour*
Tom Hooper, Les Misérables
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Dark Horse: Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Long Shot: David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Total Shock: Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom
The skinny: With an expanded slate of Best Picture nominees, is there still a possibility of a lone director nomination? I’m sticking to my guns and saying there is. Lee was a surprise nominee at the Directors’ Guild, but they love that guy (and why shouldn’t they? He’s great). I’m still not buying that Life of Pi is a hugely dominant force in this race. To quote Charles Barkley, “I could be wrong, but I doubt it.”
BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook*
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Denzel Washington, Flight
Dark Horse: Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Long Shot: Richard Gere, Arbitrage
Total Shock: Jack Black, Bernie
The skinny: These five are all SAG nominees this year. A pure match rarely occurs, but I feel actors won’t take a shine to Joaquin’s degenerate, even though it’s a great performance. As always, any shocks would be greatly appreciated.
BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible*
Dark Horse: Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Long Shot: Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Total Shock: Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed
The skinny: It’s rare for a performance to be hailed by so many as “the best of the year” and still be in danger of missing out, but that’s the situation Sony faces with the hard-to-love Amour. I think the accolades won’t go unnoticed, meaning Riva will nudge out her compatriot, even though Cotillard has a more “Oscar-type” role. You’ve got six women competing for five spots. As much as it goes against logic, I think the previous winner playing a disabled heroine doesn’t get the nod.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild*
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Dark Horse: Any of the cast of Django Unchained
Long Shot: Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
Total Shock: Ezra Miller, The Perks of Being a Wallflower
The skinny: So for all the prognosticating, I think it’s Dwight Henry who pulls off the surprise nomination. I wish John Goodman would be the shock this year but there’s no way that’s happening. Sadly, the trio of great supporting performances in Django Unchained will cancel one another out and McConaughey will have to wait to be nominated next year for Dallas Buyers Club.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Ann Dowd, Compliance*
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Dark Horse: Amy Adams, The Master
Long Shot: Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Total Shock: Samantha Barks, Les Misérables
The skinny: Guild nominations be damned. I think Dowd steals Kidman’s thunder. Does this mean the acting showcase that is The Master only winds up with one nod for the title character? Such is the problem of being a misunderstood masterpiece. And a last minute surprise! Maggie Smith failed to pick up a BAFTA nod on Wednesday, so I highly doubt the Academy will reverse that.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Amour
Django Unchained
Looper*
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty
Dark Horse: The Master
Long Shot: Flight
Total Shock: Middle of Nowhere
The skinny: Even with the guild nomination, I think The Master still misses. The writers tend to stick up for difficult movies, but no recent nominee has been this difficult (or opaque). If that happens, I think it means my dreams are coming true and Looper gets a well-deserved nod for its bracingly original script. If District 9 and Inception can get nominated, surely Rian Johnson’s screenplay can, too. That’s my bold pick, because at the end of the day, the veteran is more likely to get nominated than the newbie.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Lincoln
The Perks of Being a Wallflower*
Silver Linings Playbook
Dark Horse: Bernie
Long Shot: Life of Pi
Total Shock: On the Road
The skinny: Welp. The Writers Guild confirmed my worst fears. Bernie isn’t getting any Oscar love this season. The silver lining (pun intended) is The Perks of Being a Wallflower likely is. That could change if the campaign for Life of Pi is strong, but I think Perks struck a nerve with anyone who saw it, especially writers.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Rabbi’s Cat*
Wreck-It Ralph
Dark Horse: Rise of the Guardians
Long Shot: The Painting
Total Shock: The Pirates! Band of Misfits
The skinny: I’ve had this set up this way for quite a while. I don’t see any movement here at all, though some love for Aardman animation is always welcome.
—————————————-
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Amour (Austria)
The Intouchables (France)
No (Chile)
A Royal Affair (Denmark)
War Witch (Canada)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God
Searching for Sugar Man
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Lincoln
Prometheus
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Mirror Mirror
A Royal Affair
BEST MAKE-UP & HAIR
Les Misérables
Lincoln
Men in Black 3
BEST SOUND MIXING
The Avengers
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
BEST SOUND EDITING
The Avengers
Django Unchained
Looper
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
BEST FILM EDITING
Argo
Lincoln
Les Misérables
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Anna Karenina
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Avengers
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Prometheus
Snow White and the Huntsman
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Cloud Atlas
Life of Pi
Lincoln
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Learn Me Right” (Brave)
“Ancora Qui” (Django Unchained)
“Suddenly” (Les Misérables)
“Pi’s Lullaby” (Life of Pi)
“Skyfall” (Skyfall)
Multiple nominations:
10 – Les Misérables
8 – Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty
6 – Django Unchained
5 – Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Life of Pi, Silver Linings Playbook, Skyfall
4 – Amour
3 – Anna Karenina, The Avengers
2 – Brave, Looper, Moonrise Kingdom, Prometheus, A Royal Affair, The Sessions