Oscar Picks: 15 Nov 2010

Has it been two weeks already? Anyway, I’m feeling that this year’s lack of amazing movies will lead to a lot of slots filled by high-grossing mediocrity (I’m looking at you, Alice in Wonderland) but December will probably spoil everything. Here we go:

127 Hours
Alice in Wonderland
The Fighter
The Kids are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit

Falling off: Conviction

The skinny: Tony Goldwyn’s inspiring legal drama isn’t making waves as expected. Guess that Heartland Truly Moving Picture Award can only get you so far. Tim Burton’s billion-dollar baby Alice in Wonderland is taking this slot, but will probably be axed in favor of Black Swan. But the jury’s still out on how much weirdness the Academy will handle until the film premieres in December.

Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception

Falling off: Darren Aronofsky

The skinny: As mentioned above, we’ll see if the Academy embraces the weirdness of Black Swan or runs away in horror, leaving the Independent Spirit Awards to shower it with praise. If that happens, we could see David O. Russell’s flight from oddity take his slot, but it’s more likely to go to Tom Hooper.

Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter

Falling off: Jesse Eisenberg

The skinny: Anything can happen, but as great as Eisenberg is, his role is likely going to be overshadowed by Andrew Garfield and Justin Timberlake. It’s a shame, but almost a certainty at this point. This category is always overcrowded, so plenty of other actors (including Ryan Gosling or George Clooney) could slip in. I think Wahlberg could get it, especially if The Fighter mounts a Rocky-like slew of nominations.

Annette Bening, The Kids are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Julianne Moore, The Kids are All Right
Hilary Swank, Conviction

Falling off: Noomi Rapace, Natalie Portman

The skinny: Despite leading the year’s three biggest foreign films, it’s going to be near impossible at this point for Noomi Rapace to secure a much deserved nomination for playing the eponymous girl in Steig Larsson’s “Millennium” trilogy. And, as mentioned above, I think Black Swan might be too weird for the older-leaning Academy. But then again, they also nominated such bizarre but brilliant films as Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Adaptation and There Will Be Blood in major categories.

Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Sam Rockwell, Conviction
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech

Falling off: Bill Murray

The skinny: As much as I hate to say it, The King’s Speech keeps looking like a force to be reckoned with. Ugh. I still hold out hope for Bill Murray’s wily funeral home director to get his second (really, guys. Only his second?) nomination.

Amy Adams, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole

Falling off: No one

The skinny: It wouldn’t surprise me if none of these fine actresses make it to the final five. That’s how wide open this category is.

Special thanks to Movies and Other Things (Blogspot).

This entry was posted in Film. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.