The accelerated schedule for the next Academy Awards seems to have caught some studios off-guard. A late start can have more dire consequences than usual, and some awards hopefuls will miss a lot of precursors as they’re tinkering with the final product right up until the last possible minute. And some smaller studios have multiple award-worthy projects, but don’t have the resources to mount full campaigns for both. And then there are the films that are actually slotting their performers in the appropriate slots, but end up hurting the film’s chances overall.
BEST PICTURE
1917
The Farewell
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Marriage Story
Once upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
The Two Popes
Falling off: Ford v Ferrari, Just Mercy, Queen & Slim
Rising star: Bombshell
The skinny: Ford v Ferrari has plenty of good reviews and should be a decent hit at the box office, but I think voters may view it as a little too slight compared to the heavy themes of this slate. Also, now that Damon and Bale are properly being submitted as co-leads, neither is getting nominated. Thus, it seems highly unlikely this would be nominated for Best Picture and nothing else, so it’s looking more like this will only pick up a few technical nods. Just Mercy and Queen & Slim couldn’t be more timely, and both are made by people of color. But late openings and a lack of across-the-board raves have all but killed their buzz. The studios will have to work overtime now just to get an acting nod here or there. Bombshell is also a late arrival, but as more people see it, expect it to fit in where Vice did last year.
BEST DIRECTOR
Sam Mendes, 1917
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Quentin Tarantino, Once upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Falling off: Melina Matsoukas
Rising star: Pedro Almodóvar, Pain and Glory
The skinny: I feel pretty confident in this slate, though I think Baumbach is on the shakiest ground. It’s not that he’s undeserving, but his film is merely a drama featuring the best acting of the year, and he’s not considered a master of the form like three of these four (with the fourth a previous winner making one of the most technically complex films of the year). If Pain and Glory picks up more traction, expect to hear more about Pedro getting his first nod here since 2002’s Talk to Her.
BEST ACTOR
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once upon a Time in Hollywood
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Falling off: Daniel Kaluuya
Rising star: Taron Egerton, Rocketman
The skinny: It’s a crowded year, but I think this is probably our slate. Now, Paramount and Elton John have been hosting a number of well-attended screenings and events for Rocketman, and as more voters see it there, on screeners or just on VOD, the same people who were impressed enough by Rami Malek to give him the award last year will likely be even more impressed with Taron Egerton’s performance.
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renée Zellweger, Judy
Falling off: Jodie Turner-Smith
Rising star: Alfre Woodard, Clemency
The skinny: Best Actress doesn’t have as much competition this year, so I feel pretty confident in these five. Alfre Woodard got raves for her turn in Clemency, but it’s also arriving after Christmas and Neon will be focused on Parasite. It’s her and Awkwafina currently on the outside looking in.
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