Don’t Look Up
House of Gucci
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
The skinny: The Academy finally did the right thing and pushed the number of nominees in this category back to an even 10. Even with a shortened eligibility window (just March to December this year), there are a lot of studios seeking to make up for lost time. Even so, almost all of these will crowd up the last two months of the year. Belfast is the default front runner, since it just won People’s Choice at Toronto, but there’s a lot of race left to go.
Leos Carax, Annette
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
The skinny: While Annette is divisive and unlikely to be nominated for anything except Original Song, Carax is the front-runner for that “respected international director whose movie wasn’t as warmly received by the Academy at large” slot. Though if The Hero keeps getting the kind of rapturous praise that greeted A Separation and The Salesman, Asghar Farhadi could easily take it.
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Adam Driver, House of Gucci
Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick Boom
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
The skinny: All of these guys have previously been nominated, but only Denzel has won. Only he and Smith are locks at this point, but this feels pretty comfortable given how it’s a typically “weak” year for the kinds of turns the Academy goes for.
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
The skinny: Are we clearing out for another take on a real-life person or for Frances McDormand to somehow win her fourth Oscar? It all comes down to the campaigns.Continue reading