Da 5 Bloods
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
News of the World
One Night in Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The skinny: We already have our first victim of bad reviews: Ron Howard’s Hillbilly Elegy. Netflix’s adaptation of J.D. Vance’s controversial memoir has already been thoroughly pilloried in the weeks leading up to its release. I’m leaving Amy Adams and Glenn Close in my predictions for now though.
What seems most shocking at the moment is Netflix could have four Best Picture nominees, each potentially turning on each other like the end of Reservoir Dogs.
Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
David Fincher, Mank
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
Regina King, One Night in Miami
The skinny: It would be absolutely wild if for the first time ever, the directing line-up featured just one white guy (and an extraordinary one at that), so don’t expect this to pan out. That this would also mean two Black filmmakers and two Asian-American filmmakers and two women – all of them extremely talented – would be truly astonishing.
Tom Hanks, News of the World
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari
The skinny: Tom Hanks getting nominated is something we take for granted. Last year was his first nod in nearly two decades. So don’t be surprised if he falls out in favor of the late Chadwick Boseman, who’s going lead for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, but may have a better chance of getting a posthumous nomination in the supporting category.
Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
The skinny: The big question mark here is Day, whose movie won’t be coming out until February, just before the new eligibility deadline. Will it make that release date, or will the studio move it to further into 2021, just like the Aretha Franklin biopic Respect? McDormand feels like the frontrunner, but having just won for Three Billboards, it seems unlikely she’d win again so soon.