BEST PICTURE
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Danish Girl
The Hateful Eight
In the Heart of the Sea
Joy
The Martian
The Revenant
Spotlight
Steve Jobs
Falling off: Black Mass, The Walk
Rising star: Sicario
The skinny: Lukewarm critical response and box office returns may have doomed Black Mass and The Walk, though both seem like locks for craft categories (Make-Up & Hairstyling for the former, Visual Effects for the latter). Carol still holds the lead until it doesn’t, but Spotlight is riding high. A favorable comparison to a past Oscar winner like All the President’s Men will do that.
BEST DIRECTOR
Todd Haynes, Carol
Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl
Ron Howard, In the Heart of the Sea
Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
Falling off: None
Rising star: Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
The skinny: We’ll stick with these five until Spotlight picks up more steam. McCarthy and Haynes are the only directors here that have never been nominated before. All the others have won.
BEST ACTOR
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Falling off: Johnny Depp, Don Cheadle (moved to 2016)
Rising star: Matt Damon, The Martian
The skinny: Are Cranston and Hanks liked enough to get nominated for, shall we say, less challenging roles? I would hope so, but as Hanks learned a couple years ago, nothing is for certain, as his snub for Captain Phillips ranks as one of the Academy’s most egregious oversights in recent years. But you know who is well-liked and in a challenging role? Matt Damon, who has but two acting nominations in the past 20 years (Good Will Hunting and Invictus). The Martian is a huge hit and I don’t see why it can’t enjoy the goodwill bestowed upon Gravity.
BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Emily Blunt, Sicario
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Julianne Moore, Freeheld
Falling off: Meryl Streep, Alicia Vikander (moved to supporting)
Rising star: Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
The skinny: Streep is always in the conversation, but TriStar doesn’t have the deep pockets to push Ricki and the Flash. Plus, the recent hubbub over her T-shirt doesn’t help. Focus is engaging in some blatant category fraud by shifting Vikander to supporting, but that’s definitely to their advantage. Since Joy remains unseen, Blunt moves to the front of the line. Should Room not be as warmly welcomed by Academy voters as it was by festival-goers, expect Maggie Smith to step right up in a very Oscar bait-y role.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jeff Daniels, Steve Jobs
Benicio Del Toro, Sicario
Joel Edgerton, Black Mass
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Falling off: Bradley Cooper, Kurt Russell
Rising star: Jacob Tremblay, Room
The skinny: Everyone here would be a first time nominee, except Del Toro, who won in this category in a similar role for Traffic. But right now, I’d give it to Rylance, who’s superb as the Soviety spy Rudolf Abel. He’s got exactly the right words and grace notes to play and just the right amount of screen time.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Falling off: Ellen Page
Rising star: Jane Fonda, Youth
The skinny: If anyone will fall victim to Freeheld‘s poor reception, it will be Page. She’s been nominated once before, but she’s not as well-respected as Julianne Moore, who just won and hits the two-fer of playing a gay character dying of cancer. So I’ll just pre-emptively give this to Vikander, playing essentially the lead of the picture as Lily Elbe’s wife. If Youth plays well with the very old, very white, very male Academy, Jane Fonda might not be the only star to pick up a nod.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Bridge of Spies
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Joy
Spotlight
Falling off: Suffragette
Rising star: Anomalisa
The skinny: This category is especially thin this year, but these are all solid nominees. Anomalisa, despite great reviews out of Toronto, may find difficulty in the finicky Animated Feature category, but might find luck here.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Carol
The Danish Girl
In the Heart of the Sea
The Revenant
Steve Jobs
Falling off: None
Rising star: Room
The skinny: Whichever one of these films is not a Best Picture nominee will likely be shut out here, but I still see Aaron Sorkin’s talky biopic remix as the presumptive winner.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Anomalisa
Inside Out
The Good Dinosaur
The Peanuts Movie
Shaun the Sheep Movie
Falling off: The Little Prince, The Prophet
Rising star: When Marnie Was There
The skinny: People are still banging the drum for Inside Out as a Best Picture nominee. Believe me, I agree it’s deserving, but since the shift away from a set 10, I have a hard time believing it will make the cut. But this is a clean sweep.