It’s been a weird year. A lot of films pegged as contenders early on have been met with shrugs. There hasn’t been a single runaway contender yet. Even One Battle After Another and Hamnet have their detractors. So who’s in at this point? Read on, but I’m sure it will change next month.
BEST PICTURE
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Frankenstein
Hamnet
It Was Just an Accident
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
The skinny: Though it won’t be the most financially successful or the most universally acclaimed film to make the final list, One Battle After Another still feels like the one to beat. It’s got the scope, the timeliness, the great acting, the clever writing, and the “it’s time” narrative for director Paul Thomas Anderson.
BEST DIRECTOR
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
The skinny: This could easily be the most international line-up this category has ever had, as PTA and Coogler are the only American-born filmmakers in the bunch. For the latter – as well as Panahi and Trier – these nominations are long overdue.
BEST ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
George Clooney, Jay Kelly
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
The skinny: What’s this? A category with mostly honest-to-god movie stars in it?! Chalamet and Clooney will go on a charm offensive that hasn’t been seen here for years, while DiCaprio and Johnson will hit the circuit to show how much work they put into their roles. That fifth slot may go to Cannes winner Wagner Moura, though he certainly has competition from Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) and Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere).
BEST ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
Jennifer Lawrence, Die My Love
Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
Emma Stone, Bugonia
The skinny: This is a damn good line-up, featuring some extremely challenging performances. If Wicked: For Good doesn’t have quite as much acclaim, box office, and goodwill as its predecessor, Erivo may find herself swapped with Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (my personal favorite).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
The skinny: While Penn announced himself as a front-runner to pick up his third Oscar in OBAA, I think he’s got some serious competition from the Skarsgård patriarch. Penn is absolutely unreal as Col. Lockjaw, but the Swedish icon has yet to be nominated, this category (and the narrative around a career accomplishment trophy) seems tailor-made for him to win.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
The skinny: I hesitate to call this a week year when you could have multiple nominees from Sentimental Value, One Battle After Another, and/or Sinners represented here. But there’s no one that really stands out yet (which is not to say none of these performances are extraordinary). So for now I’ll go with the most memed turn of the year: a practically unrecognizable Amy Madigan as the evil Aunt Gladys. In any other year, I’d say she has no chance. But with Weapons being one of the year’s biggest hits, and WB promising to give it a full awards campaign, anything is possible.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
It Was Just an Accident
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Sinners
The skinny: Despite never having a film enter wide release in the U.S., Jafar Panahi is one of the most well-respected directors in the world. That’s not only because of his incredible works, but also because of his active resistance to censorship from the government of Iran. This is a man who smuggled a film secretly shot on an iPhone out of his country and has served time in prison for daring to practice his art. Even if It Was Just an Accident doesn’t become a crossover success here (it’s already his only film to earn more than $1 million), this seems like the ideal place to honor him.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Bugonia
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Train Dreams
Wake Up Dead Man
The skinny: Though it’s credited only as “inspired by” Thomas Pynchon’s Vineland, if One Battle After Another stays in this category, it should cruise to a win, despite some serious competition.