BEST PICTURE
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Falling off: None
Rising star: Air
The skinny: All the major players have done their festival turns, but there appear to be no late-breaking contenders yet. I have Air penciled in for a couple reasons: 1. It was the first screener sent out. 2. An old-fashioned, feel-good biopic with a lot of movie stars? Neither of those can be discounted completely.
BEST DIRECTOR
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Falling off: Celine Song
Rising star: Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
The skinny: My doubts about Greta getting her second nomination have faded. It’s an unstoppable juggernaut at this point. That means Celine Song will have to settle for an Original Screenplay nod (and possible win). And The Holdovers appears to be mounting a classic word-of-mouth campaign. With a wide release this week, its old-school charms are poised to work their magic on audiences and voters alike.
BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Falling off: Leonardo DiCaprio
Rising star: Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
The skinny: Yes, this race is so crowded I’ve taken DiCaprio out of the running. It’s anyone’s guess as to who’s the frontrunner at the moment, but Domingo seems born to play civil rights activist Bayard Rustin. But while these performances are showy in their own ways, the quieter turn from Andrew Scott will need a lot of support to break through. (And he’d have to leapfrog DiCaprio to do it.)
BEST ACTRESS
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Falling off: None
Rising star: Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
The skinny: This category has the potential to produce one of the best line-ups of any Oscars category ever, and Hüller might not even make it!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Charles Melton, May December
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Falling off: Sterling K. Brown
Rising star: Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
The skinny: Another stacked category. Newcomer Dominic Sessa could ride the wave of goodwill from The Holdovers into his first nomination. But it could just as easily go to the oft-nominated Willem Dafoe, though he may be overshadowed by his Poor Things co-star.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
America Ferrera, Barbie
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Julianne Moore, May December
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Falling off: Danielle Brooks, Penélope Cruz
Rising star: Cara Jade Myers, Killers of the Flower Moon
The skinny: Christmas Day openers The Color Purple and Ferrari appear headed for just-OK box office and mixed reviews. Both films will need more than that to get their brilliant stars nominated. And if Nyad is completely ignored by the Academy, that could open up a slot for another indigenous Killers of the Flower Moon performer.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Maestro
Past Lives
Falling off: None
Rising star: May December
The skinny: The only reason these won’t be our five is if Barbie is ruled an adapted work.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
American Fiction
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Falling off: None
Rising star: The Taste of Things
The skinny: Again, the only reason these won’t be our five is if Barbie is ruled an adapted work.