We finally have a little bit of clarity, as most of the critics’ groups and some of the bigger precursors have unveiled their nominees. But it still feels like One Battle After Another is in pole position, even after its backlash and good-but-not-great box office.
BEST PICTURE
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Frankenstein
Hamnet
It Was Just an Accident
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
Falling off: Jay Kelly, Wicked: For Good
Rising star: Bugonia
The skinny: Netflix was never going to have more than two films in this race, and it looks like Train Dreams is picking up steam (pun sort of intended) while Jay Kelly is yesterday’s news. Speaking of which, if Wicked: For Good can’t pick up a nod in the Golden Globes Musical or Comedy category – with six slots, no less – there’s no way in hell it’s making it here. Bugonia will likely have to settle for Actress and Adapted Screenplay nods, but it is hitting streaming at just the right time to surge into the race.
BEST DIRECTOR
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Falling off: None
Rising star: Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein
The skinny: This feels like our five, unless Sentimental Value is on shakier ground than I thought.
BEST ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Falling off: George Clooney, Dwayne Johnson
Rising star: Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
The skinny: Chalamet is on a charm offensive the likes of which we’ve never seen. And losing Best Actor last year is all part of it. But Clooney and the Rock falling out of the final five is great news for Ethan Hawke (who should have more nods) and Michael B. Jordan (who’s never gotten one). This could be an all-timer lineup after more than a decade of lackluster winners.
BEST ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Falling off: Cynthia Erivo, Jennifer Lawrence
Rising star: Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
The skinny: There’s only room for so many grieving mothers, so out goes Jennifer Lawrence (despite giving the best performance of her career). But that means we’ve got a hell of a showdown between Jessie Buckley and Rose Byrne. And if One Battle After Another continues to dominate, the Oscars might get a chance to show an ingenue some love by giving some much-deserved recognition to Chase Infiniti.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Falling off: Adam Sandler
Rising star: Andrew Scott, Blue Moon
The skinny: With Jay Kelly likely shut out, it means the most handsome man playing a literal monster will likely find his way in. Elordi has been giving strong supporting performances for years, and he’s the best actor in Del Toro’s perhaps too literal adaptation of Frankenstein. I don’t see any additional movement, though Andrew Scott gave two solid performances this year in Blue Moon and Wake Up Dead Man. Sometimes that’s enough for a well-respected actor.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Falling off: Emily Blunt
Rising star: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
The skinny: I have absolutely no idea what’s going to happen here. This feels like the final group of nominees, but there’s no clear winner, like at all. The only person with an outside shot of getting in is Mosaku, who won the genderless supporting performance category at the Gothams.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
It Was Just an Accident
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Sorry, Baby
Falling off: Jay Kelly
Rising star: The Secret Agent
The skinny: Sorry, Baby picking up a lone writing nod will be one of my favorite nominations this year. It absolutely won’t win, but it’s in fantastic company.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Bugonia
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Train Dreams
Wake Up Dead Man
Falling off: None
Rising star: No Other Choice
The skinny: Neon has its hands full, but if it can position No Other Choice correctly, it could easily pick up one of the three slots that don’t belong to Hamnet and One Battle After Another. Those are the only locks here.