The picture’s starting to come into focus. Both New York and L.A. critics have given out their awards, and the newly revamped Golden Globes have revealed their nominees. Both of these are imperfect precursors, but they have shown who’s up (May December) and who’s down (The Color Purple).
BEST PICTURE
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Falling off: None
Rising star: May December
The skinny: I’m still holding onto these 10, but American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall and Past Lives are looking weaker by the minute. All three are exceptional, but if May December keeps this up, one of them will find their awards prospects greatly diminished.
BEST DIRECTOR
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Falling off: None
Rising star: Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
The skinny: One thing’s remained constant for the last several months: Christopher Nolan is the front-runner for this award, and if he loses it will be a shock.
BEST ACTOR
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Falling off: Bradley Cooper
Rising star: Joaquin Phoenix, Beau Is Afraid
The skinny: Believe it or not, Paul Giamatti has only been nominated for one Oscar: as the corner man in Ron Howard’s boxing biopic Cinderella Man. But in the nearly 20 years since, he’s cemented his place as one of the most reliable character actors in Hollywood. Winning a career achievement award, especially in a comedy, seemed highly unlikely even a few weeks ago. But it’s looking more and more likely now, even if with such stiff competition.
BEST ACTRESS
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Natalie Portman, May December
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Falling off: Greta Lee
Rising star: Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
The skinny: It’s a three-way race (between Gladstone, Robbie and Stone). But honestly, giving this to anyone but Gladstone would be a huge mistake.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Charles Melton, May December
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Falling off: None
Rising star: Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
The skinny: Since the summer, it seemed like Downey had this all sewn up. But then came Charles Melton, fresh off a CW series, and blew two Oscar winners off the screen in May December. Voters could still give the award to the old pro, but the ingenue is coming on strong.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Julianne Moore, May December
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Falling off: America Ferrera
Rising star: Rosamund Pike, Saltburn
The skinny: I honestly have no idea who’s getting nominated here besides Moore and Randolph. But the latter seems to have this sewn up. The rest I’ll probably get wrong, but who cares?
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
May December
Past Lives
Falling off: Maestro
Rising star: Origin
The skinny: May December really came out at the perfect time to capture all the awards momentum. This thorny comedy(?) seems to have stolen Past Lives‘ thunder. The opposite is true of Origin, Ava DuVernay’s adaptation of Caste (which has been deemed different enough to be considered an original screenplay). Great reviews but a bizarre release strategy from Neon – who’s usually great at these things! – have hindered its chances.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
American Fiction
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Falling off: None
Rising star: Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.
The skinny: An absolutely killer slate that feels locked. Could growing adoration for Kelly Fremon Craig’s adaptation of the beloved Judy Blume book find its way in? It would take a lot more prayer.