Oscar Picks: 10 Jan 2011

We’re getting down to the wire here, as guilds around the country are announcing their nominees and so I have no choice but to expand my picks to include Animated Feature, Original and Adapted Screenplay, Song and Cinematography. I’ll be updating these next week because after that, I’ll have to submit my final picks. Man, time flies. There’s a lot to get to, so here we go:


BEST PICTURE
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit

Falling off: No one

The skinny: This is pretty much a done deal at this point. The Producers’ Guild has shortlisted these, and there’s nothing at this point that can derail these. They’ve got their crowd-pleasing sports movie, their sci-fi blockbuster and their little indie that’s made no money. All the bases are covered.


BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
David Fincher, The Social Network
Christopher Nolan, Inception
David O. Russell, The Fighter

Falling off: Danny Boyle

The skinny: Somehow I left David Fincher off this list the last go-round. That was a complete slip-up, because there is absolutely no way he won’t get nominated. The Directors Guild picked Tom Hooper over the Coens, but come on. Plus, the Academy has a history of leaving off one director nominated by his peers (see: Andrew Davis, Christopher Nolan, Sean Penn, the list goes on).


BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours

Falling off: No one

The skinny: Even though Mark Wahlberg gives the performance of his life in The Fighter, he won’t hear his name called two weeks from now. It’s just an over-crowded field, and I don’t think any of these likely nominees don’t deserve it.


BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, The Kids are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Falling off: Hilary Swank

The skinny: There’s a certain (crazy) school of thought that thinks Lesley Manville will get nominated for Another Year. But Mike Leigh certainly doesn’t have the pull he once did. She’s a longshot at best. Swank got a SAG nomination, and while I would love to see her beat Annette Bening three times in a row, Conviction has lost almost if not all its traction. Consider that an opportunity for Michelle Williams (who somehow doesn’t have an Oscar yet), to swoop in.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech

Falling off: No one

The skinny: This one’s all locked up, too. This will be the most interesting race to watch unfold. I’d love to see someone from Social Network come in and rack up a nomination (or two), but this is pretty much how the category will look two weeks from now.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Falling off: No one

The skinny: Weaver got the Golden Globe nomination, Helena Bonham Carter the SAG. It’s too close to call since the Academy loves crazy folks about as much as they love supportive wives. Tradition tells us it’s in Carter’s favor, but The King’s Speech is mostly a two-man show. Also, and don’t ask me where I got this, but I have a feeling (from the same place that told me Vera Farmiga could upset Mo’Nique last year) Rooney Mara, who’s only in The Social Network for less than 10 minutes, could be a surprise nominee. There’s one every year. Stay tuned if it’s her.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Black Swan
Inception
The Fighter
The Kids are All Right
The King’s Speech

The skinny: Please Give scored a Writers Guild nomination, so it could get a consolation nomination for a well-respected writer-director. But I think this’ll do it for this category, though some may not view Inception‘s screenplay as impressive as the film as a whole.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
127 Hours
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
Winter’s Bone

The skinny: No surprises here, either. I Love You Phillip Morris scored a WGA nod as well, but that outrageous true story has basically no shot at an Oscar. It’s likely a deserving screenplay, but not when it has to contend with more traditional awards fare. The same thing happened to Tina Fey in 2004, who got a bump from her fellow writers for her awesome Mean Girls script, but found herself nudged out come Oscar time for the allegedly magical Finding Neverland.


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
Shutter Island
True Grit

The skinny: There’s some love for Winter’s Bone, but let’s not kid ourselves. The only legitimate contender is Harry Potter 7.1. Eduardo Serra’s been nominated twice before, and the franchise has seen itself in this category this time last year. But I think these five are practically set in stone.


BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Burlesque
How to Train Your Dragon
Tangled
Toy Story 3
Waiting for Superman

The skinny: As much as I’d love to see something from Get Him to the Greek nominated, the Academy hasn’t favored joke-y songs since “Blame Canada” triumphantly gave a middle finger to “sentimental, tacky crap,” as Jack Black would put it, back in ’99. I’d feel confident in these picks, except last year, they nominated two Disney songs, a lame song added to a stage musical and a song from a movie that made less than $1 million. The year before they cut the field to three for no apparent reason. So any of these could make it, and so could a dozen others. Oy.


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Despicable Me
How to Train Your Dragon
Toy Story 3

The skinny: This was a great year for animation, so it’s a little unfair that there will only be three nominees this year. Meanwhile, we got five nominees in 2002 and 2009, so whatever. Sylvain Chomet’s The Illusionist could appeal to enough of the weirdo crop to get a nomination (which is very likely). Then there’s Disney’s Tangled, which appeals to the staunch traditionalists. I’d say that’s a little greedy and unfair to the other studios that are finally catching up to Pixar. But what does the Academy know about being fair?

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