BEST PICTURE
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Will win: The Power of the Dog
Could win: CODA
Should win: Drive My Car
Should have been nominated: Mass
The skinny: CODA seems to be surging, picking up top honors at SAG and the PGA. But we’ve been down this road before. The whole “times are tough and voters just want to give Best Picture to a nice movie that makes them feel good” hasn’t really panned out. So I’m sticking with The Power of the Dog. It’s critically acclaimed, has an enormous push from Netflix to finally get their first major Oscar, and has done well just about everywhere.
BEST DIRECTING
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Will win: Jane Campion
Could win: Steven Spielberg
Should win: Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Should have been nominated: Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
The skinny: No matter what happens anywhere else, Campion will become just the third woman to win Best Director. She’s more than deserving.
BEST ACTOR
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Will win: Will Smith
Could and should win: Benedict Cumberbatch
Should have been nominated: Simon Rex, Red Rocket
The skinny: Like a lot of the acting lineups, these are actors I enjoy but don’t love the films they’re nominated for. The performances of Smith and Aunjanue Ellis are really the only reason to watch King Richard, which indulged every sports movie cliché on its way to a whopping six nominations. I’ll be happy for Will to finally get this, but I’ll probably pretend it’s for something else.
BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Will and should win: Jessica Chastain
Could win: Penélope Cruz
Should have been nominated: Agathe Rousselle, Titane
The skinny: The only true wild card of the night. Chastain has hustled all season long for her excellent performance in a movie no one saw (and not because it premiered on streaming). It seems like hers to lose, but previous winners Colman, Cruz or Kidman could all pick up their second trophies. The only one who seems like she’s out completely is Stewart. It’s odd considering she was the front-runner all season.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ciarán Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Will win: Troy Kotsur
Could and should win: Kodi Smit-McPhee
Should have been nominated: Vikash Bhai, Limbo
The skinny: Kotsur’s got this in the bag, and he’s sure to give an excellent speech. But it’s a tad bit annoying (not because he’s undeserving) this is a forgone conclusion when Paul Raci was passed over for Sound of Metal last year.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Judi Dench, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Will and should win: Ariana DeBose
Could win: Aunjanue Ellis
Should have been nominated: Olga Mereidiz, In the Heights
The skinny: Ariana DeBose’s victory lap ends here with one final bow. She’s been dazzling on-screen and off all season.
BEST WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Worst Person in the World
Will win: Licorice Pizza
Could win: Don’t Look Up
Should win: The Worst Person in the World
Should have been nominated: The Card Counter
The skinny: This category really could have been something. Instead, it’s just a mediocre lot. Paul Thomas Anderson looks like he’ll finally win after being passed over far too many times. I enjoyed Licorice Pizza quite a bit. But it’s a bummer this is the one he’ll be awarded for after many genuine masterpieces.
BEST WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
Will win: The Power of the Dog
Could win: CODA
Should win: Drive My Car
Should have been nominated: West Side Story
The skinny: Another showdown between the two Best Picture front-runners. But don’t assume a win here is a guarantee the film will win the big prize at the end of the night. Either way, both are inferior to Drive My Car, the year’s best movie.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
Will win: Encanto
Could win: The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Should win: Flee
Should have been nominated: N/A
The skinny: Encanto isn’t quite as good as Flee or The Mitchells vs. the Machines, but they’re all leagues better than Luca or Raya and the Last Dragon. We don’t talk about Bruno, nor do we talk about Disney’s stranglehold on this category, which continues for another year.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
Drive My Car (Japan)
Flee (Denmark)
The Hand of God (Italy)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
Will and should win: Drive My Car
Could win: The Worst Person in the World
Should have been nominated: N/A
The skinny: At least Drive My Car will win something.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul
Writing with Fire
Will win: Summer of Soul
Could and should win: Flee
Should have been nominated: The Velvet Underground
The skinny: Even if the other films may deal with more pressing topics, voters in this category simply can’t resist a music doc. (Except the nominating committee, who unfairly snubbed Todd Haynes’s The Velvet Underground.)
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Audible
Lead Me Home
The Queen of Basketball
Three Songs for Benazir
When We Were Bullies
Will win: The Queen of Basketball
Could win: Audible
Should win: N/A
Should have been nominated: N/A
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Ala Kachuu (Take and Run)
The Dress
The Long Goodbye
On My Mind
Please Hold
Will win: Ala Kachuu (Take and Run)
Could win: The Long Goodbye
Should win: N/A
Should have been nominated: N/A
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Affairs of the Art
Bestia
BoxBallet
Robin Robin
The Windshield Wiper
Will win: Bestia
Could win: Affairs of the Art
Should win: Robin Robin
Should have been nominated: N/A
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Will win: West Side Story
Could win: Dune
Should win: Nightmare Alley
Should have been nominated: The Last Duel
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Will and should win: Cruella
Could win: Cyrano
Should have been nominated: House of Gucci
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Will win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Could win: Coming 2 America
Should have been nominated: Old
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Will win: Dune
Could win: The Power of the Dog
Should win: The Tragedy of Macbeth
Should have been nominated: The Green Knight
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune
Free Guy
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Will and should win: Dune
Could win: Spider-Man: No Way Home
Should have been nominated: The Matrix Resurrections
BEST FILM EDITING
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
Tick, Tick… Boom!
Will and should win: Dune
Could win: The Power of the Dog
Should have been nominated: Last Night in Soho
BEST SOUND
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Will and should win: Dune
Could win: West Side Story
Should have been nominated: Memoria
BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Encanto
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog
Will win: Dune
Could and should win: The Power of the Dog
Should have been nominated: Candyman
BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
“Be Alive” (King Richard)
“Dos Oruguitas” (Encanto)
“Down to Joy” (Belfast)
“No Time to Die” (No Time to Die)
“Somehow You Do” (Four Good Days)
Will win: “No Time to Die”
Could win: “Dos Oruguitas”
Should win: “Down to Joy”
Should have been nominated: “So May We Start” (Annette)
Winners:
CODA – Supporting Actor
Cruella – Costume Design
Drive My Car – International Feature
Dune – Sound, Visual Effects, Film Editing, Cinematography, Music (Original Score)
Encanto – Animated Feature
The Eyes of Tammy Faye – Actress, Makeup & Hairstyling
King Richard – Actor
Licorice Pizza – Writing (Original Screenplay)
No Time to Die – Music (Original Song)
The Power of the Dog – Picture, Directing, Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Summer of Soul – Documentary Feature
West Side Story – Supporting Actress, Production Design
Losers: Ascension; Attica; Belfast; Coming 2 America; Don’t Look Up; Flee; Four Good Days; Free Guy; The Hand of God; House of Gucci; The Lost Daughter; Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom; Nightmare Alley; Parallel Mothers; Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings; Spencer; Spider-Man: No Way Home; Tick, Tick… Boom!; The Tragedy of Macbeth; The Worst Person in the World; Writing with Fire