And that’ll do it. While many races are close, I feel very confident in these picks, more than I ever have before. I would, however, love to be wrong on some of these predictions.
BEST PICTURE
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
The Wolf of Wall Street
Will win: 12 Years a Slave
Could and should win: Gravity
Should have been here: Before Midnight
The skinny: The race is so close this year, there was a tie at the Producers Guild Awards, which has never happened. And that’s not some tiny voting body. There are literally thousands of members and there was a tie. Working against 12 Years a Slave: It’s a grueling watch, and voters don’t like being told they have to vote for a movie. Working against Gravity: a weak script and the fact that it doesn’t play nearly as well on anything smaller than a gigantic movie screen. Are those weaknesses enough to split the vote and give American Hustle a majority? Despite its multiple nominations, that’s not going to happen. I give the edge to 12 Years a Slave, but just barely. It’s the superior film, but not the superior movie. And yes, there’s a difference.
BEST DIRECTOR
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Will and should win: Alfonso Cuarón
Could win: Steve McQueen
Should have been here: Spike Jonze, Her
The skinny: Once again, the race comes down to two. Cuarón has the advantage because his films have been nominated before and in some ways he did more work (having to develop the technology to make his dreams a reality) than McQueen, who is masterful in his own right. Plus, Cuarón won the DGA. The last time the winner lost the Oscar was Rob Marshall more than a decade ago.
BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Will win: Matthew McConaughey
Could win: Chiwetel Ejiofor
Should win: Leonardo DiCaprio
Should have been here: Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
The skinny: This category is so good that you could take five of the snubs and still make a hell of a category. While I prefer DiCaprio because of his fearlessness and comic chops, there’s almost no way McConaughey doesn’t win this. Yes he’s deserving, but he’s pretty much checked every box voters love to honor: serious transformation, playing a real person, has a disease, on and on. Ejiofor has his “I will not fall into despair!” speech but McConaughey has about a dozen big moments in Dallas Buyers Club, plus voters are reminded every week of just how incredible he is in True Detective. This race is over, but it really should have included Tom Hanks.
BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Will win: Cate Blanchett
Could win: Amy Adams
Should win: Sandra Bullock
Should have been here: Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
The skinny: Does disgust for Woody Allen’s alleged atrocities permeate far enough to deny Blanchett an Oscar? I doubt it. Blanchett’s been the frontrunner for some time now, which means there’s the possibility she could be forgotten. If she’s passed up, it won’t be Woody’s fault. Her only true competition is Amy Adams, currently on her fifth nomination since 2005, which is just astonishing. Also in her favor is her terrific work in Her, which is also nominated for Best Picture. But it’s Blanchett’s to lose.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Will win: Jared Leto
Could and should win: Barkhad Abdi
Should have been here: Daniel Brühl, Rush (even though it’s really a lead performance)
The skinny: For some reason, Leto’s charms didn’t work on me in Dallas Buyers Club. It’s a charismatic performance filled with plenty of sass, but aside from a few important scenes, I don’t think there’s very much substance, which is more of a problem with the script (somehow also nominated). I’m much more impressed with Barkhad Abdi, who surprised many by winning the BAFTA a couple weeks ago. He’s simply magnificent as Muse, the reluctant pirate who captures Captain Phillips. All the more impressive considering this is his first film, as in ever. He’d get my vote.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
Will and should win: Lupita Nyong’o
Could win: Jennifer Lawrence
Should have been here: Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler
The skinny: Personally, I prefer Margot Robbie’s performance in The Wolf of Wall Street to Jennifer Lawrence’s in American Hustle. They’re both playing young, neglected Long Island housewives, but Robbie stays on the right side of the acting-overacting line. Nyong’o also checks plenty of boxes, but she’s terrific too, in her debut no less. 12 Years a Slave is not guaranteed many awards in this race (though could win several). This is the closest thing it has to a lock.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Dallas Buyers Club
Her
Nebraska
Will win: American Hustle
Could and should win: Her
Should have been here: About Time
The skinny: I can easily see American Hustle come up empty-handed this year, but David O. Russell’s films of late tend to walk away with something. I think this is the film’s best chance to not come up second or third in a category. The problem is the script is the weakest part of the film. Her won the WGA and is certainly a lot better piece of writing and more forward-looking. I’d say it’s neck-and-neck at this point, but I give the slight edge to the movie with a nomination in all six major categories.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
12 Years a Slave
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
Philomena
The Wolf of Wall Street
Will win: 12 Years a Slave
Could win: Captain Phillips
Should win: Before Midnight
Should have been here: The Spectacular Now
The skinny: While Before Midnight should win by a very long distance, I think this category, whose remaining slots went to Best Picture nominees, has a frontrunner, but no clear victor. 12 Years a Slave turns tragedy into something at least bearable though occasionally its dialogue conflicts with the film. It feels too much like we’re watching a movie, while the rest of the film strives to achieve a documentary-like feel. Captain Phillips won the WGA and Philomena won the BAFTA. Unlike the Original Screenplay category, there’s no clear second choice. Thus Ridley, a perpetually underrated writer, gets his due.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises
Will win: Frozen
Could win: The Wind Rises
Should win: The Croods (calm down; I haven’t seen Frozen yet)
Should have been here: Monsters University
The skinny: It’s not even a contest at this point. The race is over. Hayao Miyazaki’s swan song will get a few votes, but nothing’s going to stop the Disney juggernaut. Just let it go. What I can’t let go of, however, is that Monsters University got snubbed. It was another Pixar gem, not a crude product.
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BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Feral
Get a Horse!
Mr. Hublot
Possessions
Room on the Broom
Will win: Get a Horse!
Could win: Mr. Hublot
Should win: abstain
Should have been here: The Blue Umbrella
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?
Helium
Just Before Losing Everything
That Wasn’t Me
The Voorman Problem
Will win: The Voorman Problem
Could win: Just Before Losing Everything
Should win and should have been here: abstain
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Cave Digger
Facing Fear
Karama Has No Walls
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall
Will win: The Lady in Number 6
Could win: Prison Terminal
Should win and should have been here: abstain
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
20 Feet from Stardom
The Act of Killing
Cutie and the Boxer
Dirty Wars
The Square
Will win: 20 Feet from Stardom
Could win: The Act of Killing
Should win: Dirty Wars
Should have been here: abstain
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)
The Great Beauty (Italy)
The Hunt (Denmark)
The Missing Picture (Cambodia)
Omar (Palestine)
Will win: The Great Beauty
Could win: Omar
Should win: The Hunt
Should have been here: abstain
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Happy” (Despicable Me 2)
“Let it Go” (Frozen)
“The Moon Song” (Her)
“Ordinary Love” (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Will win: “Let it Go”
Could win: “Ordinary Love”
Should win: “The Moon Song”
Should have been here: “Here it Comes” (Trance) and “Alone Yet Not Alone,” but that’s a different story
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Book Thief
Gravity
Her
Philomena
Saving Mr. Banks
Will and should win: Gravity
Could win: Her
Should have been here: Monsters University
BEST SOUND EDITING
All is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lone Survivor
Will and should win: Gravity
Could win: Captain Phillips
Should have been here: Elysium
BEST SOUND MIXING
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lone Survivor
Will and should win: Gravity
Could win: Captain Phillips
Should have been here: Rush
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
The Lone Ranger
Star Trek into Darkness
Will and should win: Gravity
Could win: The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Should have been here: Pacific Rim
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Grandmaster
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Prisoners
Will and should win: Gravity
Could win: Prisoners
Should have been here: 12 Years a Slave
BEST FILM EDITING
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Will and should win: Gravity
Could win: Captain Phillips
Should have been here: Rush
BEST MAKE-UP & HAIRSTYLING
Dallas Buyers Club
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
The Lone Ranger
Will win: Dallas Buyers Club
Could and should win: Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
Should have been here: American Hustle
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
The Grandmaster
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman
Will win: The Great Gatsby
Could and should win: American Hustle
Should have been here: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
Her
Will win: The Great Gatsby
Could win: 12 Years a Slave
Should win: Her
Should have been here: Elysium
Feature Winners:
12 Years a Slave — Picture, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay
20 Feet from Stardom — Documentary Feature
American Hustle — Original Screenplay
Blue Jasmine — Actress
Dallas Buyers Club — Actor, Supporting Actor, Make-up & Hairstyling
Frozen — Animated Feature, Song
The Great Beauty — Foreign Language Film
The Great Gatsby — Costume Design, Production Design
Gravity — Director, Score, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Visual Effects, Cinematography, Film Editing
Losers: All is Lost, August: Osage County, Before Midnight, The Book Thief, The Broken Circle Breakdown, Captain Phillips, The Croods, Cutie and the Boxer, Despicable Me 2, Dirty Wars, Ernest & Celestine, The Grandmaster, Her, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, The Hunt, Inside Llewyn Davis, The Invisible Woman, Iron Man 3, Her, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, The Lone Ranger, Lone Survivor, Mandela: Long Road to Freedom, The Missing Picture, Nebraska, Omar, Philomena, Prisoners, Saving Mr. Banks, The Square, The Wind Rises, The Wolf of Wall Street