BEST PICTURE
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
It Was Just an Accident
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
Dark Horse: Bugonia
Long Shot: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Total Shock: Weapons
The skinny: After all the festivals, all the precursors (except WGA), we’re back where we started. Despite some legitimate criticism and a lot of idiotic pearl-clutching, One Battle After Another remains the front-runner. It’s the movie of the moment and I would be truly shocked if anything has a chance at unseating it, even on a preferential ballot.
Eight of these films are about as close to sure things as you can get, but those last two slots are tricky. There will be only room for one jaw-dropping blockbuster, and right now I’m leaning F1 over Avatar: Fire and Ash, given the former’s nod at the PGAs. The 10th slot will go to Train Dreams or Bugonia. The latter has a guaranteed acting nod, but doesn’t have as much broad support as past Yorgos Lanthimos films. People who love Train Dreams really love it. And while the months-long campaign for Amy Madigan will pay off, I don’t see Weapons gaining much traction outside the Supporting Actress category.
BEST DIRECTOR
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Dark Horse: Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein
Long Shot: Kleber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent
Total Shock: Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice
The skinny: Our big change here is one of the Safdie brothers, who made it into the DGA five. That means all the other internationally acclaimed filmmakers besides Jafar Panahi are on the outside looking in. That includes previous winner Guillermo Del Toro, as well as Joachim Trier, Kleber Mendonça Filho, and Park Chan-wook. If it were up to me, the latter would get in over Zhao.
BEST ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Dark Horse: Jesse Plemons, Bugonia
Long Shot: Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Total Shock: Hugh Jackman, Song Sung Blue
The skinny: Oh, my beloved Ethan Hawke. We’ve been here before. You should have been nominated (and won) for First Reformed, but the Oscars were more enamored with Rami Malek lip-syncing Freddie Mercury. This feels more likely for you, given Sony Pictures Classics track record with (especially older) Academy voters. But Jesse Plemons is hot on your heels, long overdue for his first nod. It will be one of you, not both of you, sadly.
There is an outside possibility that Train Dreams‘ status as a Best Picture nominee pushes Edgerton to the forefront, but that seems unlikely. Yes, even more unlikely than Hugh Jackman getting nominated again for a musical.
BEST ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Dark Horse: Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
Long Shot: Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Total Shock: Jennifer Lawrence, Die My Love
The skinny: Ingenue Chase Infiniti now seems like a lock for a nomination, which puts One Battle After Another at five acting nods, something that hasn’t happened in decades. But that also means none of the ladies playing moms struggling with depression and mental illness can make it in. While some of this is a case of too many great nominees for five slots, part of this is definitely on Searchlight absolutely botching their campaign for The Testament of Ann Lee.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Dark Horse: Miles Caton, Sinners
Long Shot: Josh O’Connor, Wake Up Dead Man
Total Shock: William H. Macy, Train Dreams
The skinny: Del Toro has picked up most of the regional prizes, while Elordi got the Critics’ Choice. Skarsgård got the Golden Globe, and right now I’m leaning his way for this award. Sentimental Value has had something of a roller coaster ride this awards season. But even if director Joachim Trier and co-star Elle Fanning find themselves left out of the celebration, this seems more and more like the film’s lone win.
It was long thought that if Sinners picked up a nod here, it would go to the perennially unsung Delroy Lindo. But newcomer Caton has the best shot, even over the charismatic and villainous turn by Jack O’Connell. Josh O’Connor gave several great performances this year, but I don’t think there’s enough momentum for him to get in for any of them (including this one, which would be blatant category fraud).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Dark Horse: Odessa A’zion, Marty Supreme
Long Shot: Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Total Shock: Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man
The skinny: Another Globe winner, Taylor really gives an essential supporting performance, side-stepping any debate about her character’s agency and decision-making. If Wicked: For Good is as dead in the major categories as it seems to be, Grande could be swapped for ingenue A’zion, who picked up a SAG nod (excuse me… Actor Award).
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
It Was Just an Accident
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Sorry, Baby
Dark Horse: The Secret Agent
Long Shot: Weapons
Total Shock: Blue Moon
The skinny: I think the deeply personal but very tiny Sorry, Baby has gotten enough key nods (Golden Globes, DGAs) and huge shout-out from Julia Roberts to get the typical “We like you, but not enough for Best Picture” nod. But I would not be shocked if The Secret Agent gets in and this category is just Best Picture nominees.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Train Dreams
Dark Horse: No Other Choice
Long Shot: Wake Up Dead Man
Total Shock: Hedda
The skinny: Several of these nominees are pretty weak, but they have the momentum and name recognition to solidify their status. But there are far more interesting choices, especially Park Chan-wook’s No Other Choice (another possible “We like you, but not enough for Best Picture” nominee) and Nia DaCosta’s reimagining of Henrik Ibsen’s Hedda Gabler. Even a flawed but deeply moving sequel like Wake Up Dead Man has a better script than some of these.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Arco
Elio
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2
*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
It Was Just an Accident (France)
No Other Choice (South Korea)
The Secret Agent (Brazil)
Sentimental Value (Norway)
The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)
*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
2000 Meters to Adriivka
The Alabama Solution
Cover-Up
My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow
The Perfect Neighbor
*BEST CASTING
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
The Secret Agent
Sinners
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
*BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Frankenstein
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
The Ugly Stepsister
Wicked: For Good
*BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Frankenstein
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Train Dreams
*BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Frankenstein
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
BEST FILM EDITING
F1
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
*BEST SOUND
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Frankenstein
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
*BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
F1
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
*BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
“Dear Me” (Diane Warren: Relentless)
“The Girl in the Bubble” (Wicked: For Good)
“Golden” (KPop Demon Hunters)
“I Lied to You” (Sinners)
“Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” (Sinners)
Multiple nominations:
16 – Sinners
12 – One Battle After Another
10 – Marty Supreme
9 – Frankenstein, Hamnet
7 – Sentimental Value, Wicked: For Good
5 – F1
4 – It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent
3 – Train Dreams
2 – Avatar: Fire and Ash, Bugonia, KPop Demon Hunters
*shortlisted category