Just like 2016 was a year of unease, I am not very uneasy about these picks. Several of these picks haven’t picked up the precursor nods that would typically foretell a sure-fire Oscar nomination. This is likely to be a down year for the Oscars, as none of the Best Picture nominees will have crossed $100 million at the box office at the time the nominees are unveiled (though several will have by the time the awards are handed out). Does that mean they’ll do something insane like nominating Deadpool in one or more categories? Not bloody likely, but last year found several unprecedented winners, and that could extend to this year as well. One thing is for sure: There will be no #OscarsSoWhite controversy this year, as nearly every acting category will have at least one nominee of color.
BEST PICTURE
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Silence
Dark Horse: Hell or High Water
Long Shot: Jackie
Total Shock: Sing Street
The skinny: The hardest part – as usual – with a variable number of Best Picture nominees is knowing exactly how many there will be. I know four locks: Hidden Figures, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight. Beyond that? They’re just guesses, but educated guesses: a solid combo of modest box office hits and awards darlings (not that they’ve won any… this is La La Land vs. Moonlight all the way). The only thing I’m going out on a limb for is Silence, and that’s probably just my own praise blinding me. But consider this: It’s a passion project, its fanbase is small but vocal and Martin Scorsese has had five of his last six movies nominated for Best Picture, and he himself has been nominated for directing those same five movies. So maybe it’s naïveté, but I think his long-gestating adaptation about missionaries in Japan gets in by the thinnest of margins. It’s better to have a small group of very enthusiastic fans, than a large group of people that have your film farther down their ballots, which is why against all odds I think Hell or High Water doesn’t make it. What’s more surprising is how little of an impact Jackie is making, especially considering how powerful Fox Searchlight used to be. This stuff used to be catnip to voters, whereas my catnip is kids singing New Wave songs.
BEST DIRECTOR
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Garth Davis, Lion
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Dark Horse: Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Long Shot: Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Total Shock: Ezra Edelman, O.J.: Made in America
The skinny: In what I believe is a first, all five Directors Guild Award nominees are first-timers, including the somewhat surprising inclusion of Garth Davis. I would be shocked if a similar event happens at the Oscars, so I’m keeping Scorsese here. Though it would be just as likely to see first-timer Denis Villeneuve (especially if Arrival gets the number of nominations I’m predicting) or previous winner Mel Gibson for his old-fashioned war epic if Scorsese doesn’t make it. What would be an even more impressive first? Ezra Edelman becoming the first documentary director to be honored in this category.
BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
Dark Horse: Michael Keaton, The Founder
Long Shot: Joel Edgerton, Loving
Total Shock: Colin Farrell, The Lobster
The skinny: Honestly, I don’t see much movement in this category at all. It’s possible Garfield ends up nominated for Silence instead, or in a sad turn of events, splitting the difference and not getting nominated at all. It would be anyone’s guess as to who would replace him, since Keaton (and fellow older actor killing it lately Tom Hanks) haven’t gotten the nods you would expect for playing real-life people. If Loving hadn’t fallen off most folks’ radar, I’d have put him higher, but only Ruth Negga seems to have a chance of being honored for that important film.
BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Arrival
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Dark Horse: Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Long Shot: Ruth Negga, Loving
Total Shock: Rebecca Hall, Christine
The skinny: For the first time in a while, this is the stacked category, with at least 10 women doing great work who could be nominated. As much as I love Meryl Streep, I’d much rather see Annette Bening honored for her career best work in 20th Century Women, but what do you expect the Academy to do? Isabelle Huppert might not make it if voters are repulsed by Elle, but European actresses in otherwise unloved movies (Charlotte Rampling, Marion Cotillard) have found their way here in recent years.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals
Dark Horse: Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Long Shot: Issey Ogata, Silence
Total Shock: John Goodman, 10 Cloverfield Lane
The skinny: Let us now apologize for not taking Aaron Taylor-Johnson seriously before. After a Golden Globe win and BAFTA nomination, his insane performance in Nocturnal Animals is looking like the real deal. So that probably leaves Hugh Grant on the outside looking in. (Though if Florence Foster Jenkins gets nominated for Best Picture somehow, all bets are off.) Also, I have a nagging suspicion that Issey Ogata ends up being the only major nomination for Silence, but I’ve been way off on things like that before.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Dark Horse: Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
Long Shot: Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky
Total Shock: Lily Gladstone, Certain Women
The skinny: You can go ahead and put these five ladies down in ink. There will not be any other names called that morning.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
Dark Horse: Captain Fantastic
Long Shot: Jackie
Total Shock: Hail, Caesar!
The skinny: Captain Fantastic‘s surprise Best Ensemble nomination at the SAG Awards speaks to larger support (though why, I’ll never know). So a good consolation prize would be an Original Screenplay nod. But I’m hoping that the brilliant 20th Century Women ends up in that fifth slot for its only recognition.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Arrival
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight
Silence
Dark Horse: Nocturnal Animals
Long Shot: Love & Friendship
Total Shock: Deadpool
The skinny: Color me surprised that Fences isn’t really in contention anymore, but that’s the way it goes (August: Osage County suffered a similar fate). So I’m betting on these five, with Nocturnal Animals nipping at Silence‘s heels. Though wouldn’t it be delightful if Deadpool of all things found itself competing with all these high-class films? It’s not out of the realm of possibility, as it did pick up a Writers Guild nomination.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Finding Dory
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
Zootopia
Dark Horse: The Red Turtle
Long Shot: Your Name.
Total Shock: Sausage Party
The skinny: Will three Disney movies be too many for this category? Maybe. And Finding Dory, which made more than Moana or Zootopia and is a sequel to a winner in this category, would be the odd man fish out. That would leave a spot for The Red Turtle (or another Japanese production like Your Name. or Miss Hokusai) to make its way in.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Land of Mine (Denmark)
Toni Erdmann (Germany)
The Salesman (Iran)
Paradise (Russia)
A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Cameraperson
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
O.J.: Made in America
Weiner
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Florence Foster Jenkins
Hidden Figures
Jackie
La La Land
Silence
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Dressmaker
Florence Foster Jenkins
Hidden Figures
Jackie
La La Land
BEST MAKE-UP & HAIRSTYLING
Florence Foster Jenkins
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Arrival
La La Land
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals
Silence
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Arrival
Captain America: Civil War
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Rogue One
BEST FILM EDITING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Moonlight
O.J.: Made in America
BEST SOUND EDITING
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
The Jungle Book
Rogue One
BEST SOUND MIXING
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Hacksaw Ridge
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Runnin’” (Hidden Figures)
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” (La La Land)
“City of Stars” (La La Land)
“How Far I’ll Go” (Moana)
“Drive It Like You Stole It” (Sing Street)
Multiple nominations:
13 – La La Land
8 – Arrival, Moonlight
6 – Lion, Manchester by the Sea
5 – Hacksaw Ridge, Hidden Figures, Silence
4 – Florence Foster Jenkins
3 – Fences, Jackie, Rogue One
2 – Deepwater Horizon, Hell or High Water, The Jungle Book, A Man Called Ove, Moana, Nocturnal Animals, O.J.: Made in America