I didn’t start this summer because, frankly, there wasn’t any point. This feels like a more natural starting place since most of the contenders have already premiered (at least at festivals).
BEST PICTURE
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
The skinny: Barbie and Oppenheimer battled it out this summer, with both achieving tremendous success. While both are guaranteed a Best Picture nomination, the latter seems poised for a sweep. Of course, there’s still a long road to go.
BEST DIRECTOR
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Celine Song, Past Lives
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
The skinny: It’s going to be embarrassing when the Directors Branch only nominates one woman this year, but competition is fierce. Right now my money’s on Song, but she could easily lose for her debut to Greta Gerwig, who’s already been nominated here. As long as Oppenheimer is the frontrunner, Nolan will be too.
BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
The skinny: Wright’s American Fiction wowed audiences at TIFF, where it won the coveted Peoples’ Choice Award. He’s long overdue for a nomination, and it’s likely the other four nominees will be playing real people. The Academy loves that, especially in this category, but it’s entirely possible they all cancel each other out.
BEST ACTRESS
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things
The skinny: Not giving this to Lily Gladstone would be a grave mistake, but I’m used to disappointment. (They didn’t even nominate her for Certain Women!) So Robbie certainly seems like she’s in the lead, though Stone is nipping at her heels.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Charles Melton, May December
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
The skinny: A pretty challenging category to predict. Downey feels like his name has been etched on this for months. (As much as I like Gosling, a win for a role this comedic is still a rarity.) But those other slots are wide open. And no, it’s not lost on me that Melton being the only nominee for May December would be hilarious.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Penélope Cruz, Ferrari
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
The skinny: I have absolutely no idea what’s going to happen here. Blunt is overdue for a nod, and it’ll help being in the movie that’s all but guaranteed to have the most nominations. But everyone else? Talented women all, but there’s no telling who would actually make the final slate.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Maestro
Past Lives
The skinny: This category is gonna be a bloodbath.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
American Fiction
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
The skinny: Two comedies?! It could happen.