Oscar Picks: 30 Nov 2010

Well that sure went by quickly. I thought I had another week to do this post. But here we are. Black Swan doesn’t come out ’til Friday, so the jury’s still out on its Oscar potential. Until then, a lot of the same. Check back in December when things will really heat up.

127 Hours
The Fighter
How to Train Your Dragon
The Kids are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit

Falling off: Alice in Wonderland

The skinny: This probably has more to do with my intense admiration for How to Train Your Dragon, which I finally saw this week than what’s really going on in Oscar voters’ heads. I highly doubt they’ll nominate not one but two animated features for Best Picture, but anything can happen with 10 nominees. It’s got the glowing reviews and the big bucks, while Alice only has the latter.


Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception
David O. Russell, The Fighter

Falling off: Joel and Ethan Coen

The skinny: Is there anyone who can stop the Coens? Maybe. But I think this will open happen if there’s a Rocky-style landslide of nods for The Fighter, which is a serious possibility. In which case, they’ll just have to settle for their third Best Picture nomination in four years.


Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter

Falling off: No one

The skinny: I want Jesse Eisenberg here more than anything, but there’s some seriously stiff competition, as to be expected.


Annette Bening, The Kids are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Julianne Moore, The Kids are All Right
Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Falling off: Hilary Swank

The skinny: Conviction just hasn’t taken off. There’s still hope for the two-time winner, but not enough convincing evidence.

Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech

Falling off: Sam Rockwell

The skinny: If he doesn’t make it, Rockwell will stand alongside Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Donald Sutherland as the greatest living actors without an Oscar nomination. He still has a shot, but Conviction needed to do Erin Brockovich numbers to give its actors some security.


Amy Adams, The Fighter
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole

Falling off: Kristin Scott Thomas

The skinny: Like I mentioned above, if the ball gets rolling, The Fighter could easily get four acting nods, which would make it the first film to do so since Doubt (although none of those fine actors won–Viola Davis wuz robbed, I tell ya). Thomas is still a lock for a Golden Globe, which might give voters a reason to check out the little seen John Lennon biopic.

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