COMEDY SERIES
Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Barry (HBO)
The Bear (Hulu)
Jury Duty (freevee)
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)
Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Ted Lasso (AppleTV+)
Wednesday (Netflix)
Will and should win: The Bear
Could win: Ted Lasso
Should have been nominated: Reservation Dogs (Hulu)
The skinny: It’s really odd that The Bear just won multiple awards at the Golden Globes for Season 2 and these Emmys will be for Season 1. No matter. Either season is better than that last season of Ted Lasso.
ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Bill Hader, Barry
Jason Segel, Shrinking
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear
Will and should win: Jeremy Allen White
Could win: Jason Sudeikis
Should have been nominated: Nathan Fielder, The Rehearsal
The skinny: With Hader and Sudeikis already winning, I would be shocked if either of them repeated instead of White (who’s no spring chicken, but hasn’t been as famous as he is now).
ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Christina Applegate, Dead to Me
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face
Jenna Ortega, Wednesday
Will win: Quinta Brunson
Should and could win: Natasha Lyonne
Should have been nominated: Devery Jacobs, Reservation Dogs
The skinny: It seems like Brunson will return to the stage after winning for her pilot script last year, but Lyonne and Ortega are serious threats. Of course, they all fall short of Jacobs in my eyes, but Reservation Dogs will never get its due from this awards body.
SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Anthony Carrigan, Barry
Phil Dunster, Ted Lasso
Brett Goldstein, Ted Lasso
James Marsden, Jury Duty
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear
Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary
Henry Winkler, Barry
Will win: Ebon Moss-Bachrach
Could win: James Marsden
Should win: Anthony Carrigan
Should have been nominated: Ken Marino, Party Down
The skinny: Cousin’s got this, although he should be winning for Season 2 (which he could very well do this fall). And in keeping with his character’s lack of luck, Ken Marino won’t get a long overdue nomination as catering leader Ron Donald.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary
Juno Temple, Ted Lasso
Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso
Jessica Williams, Shrinking
Will and should win: Ayo Edebiri
Could win: Hannah Waddingham
Should have been nominated: Sarah Goldberg, Barry
The skinny: A strong category (with a majority of Black women nominated!) but this feels like Edebiri’s to lose, even if The Bear somehow ends up not winning a bunch. But once again, not nominating Sarah Goldberg, especially for Barry‘s final season, is baffling.
WRITING FOR A COMEDY SERIES
Barry (“wow”)
The Bear (“System”)
Jury Duty (“Ineffective Assistance”)
Only Murders in the Building (“I Know Who Did It”)
The Other Two (“Cary & Brooke Go to an AIDS Play”)
Ted Lasso (“So Long, Farewell”)
Will win: Ted Lasso
Should and could win: The Bear
Should have been nominated: Reservation Dogs (“Mabel”)
The skinny: Believe it or not, Ted Lasso has never won in this category, so I’m predicting it will win for its heartfelt (if overlong) finale. But The Bear could just as easily win here.
DIRECTING FOR A COMEDY SERIES
Barry (“wow”)
The Bear (“Review”)
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (“Four Minutes”)
The Ms. Pat Show (“Don’t Touch My Hair”)
Ted Lasso (“So Long, Farewell”)
Wednesday (“Wednesday’s Child Is Full of Woe”)
Will win: The Bear
Could win: Ted Lasso
Should win: Barry
Should have been nominated: Atlanta (“It Was All a Dream”)
The skinny: Barry shamefully lost last year to an episode where people sang “Never Gonna Give You Up” at a funeral, so I’m not expecting that wrong to be righted here. The Bear‘s controlled chaos seems like the obvious winner here, but anything is possible.
TALK SERIES
The Daily Show with Trevor Noah (Comedy Central)
Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC)
Late Night with Seth Meyers (NBC)
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (CBS)
The Problem with Jon Stewart (AppleTV+)
Will win: The Late Show
Could win: The Daily Show
Should win: The Problem
Should have been nominated: The Amber Ruffin Show (Peacock)
The skinny: With Last Week Tonight (confusingly) moving to Variety Series, someone’s finally going to win. I have no idea here, so I’m going with Colbert’s Late Show, but I honestly have no idea.
SCRIPTED VARIETY SERIES
A Black Lady Sketch Show (HBO)
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)
Saturday Night Live (NBC)
Will and should win: Last Week Tonight
Could win: Saturday Night Live
Should have been nominated: Random Acts of Flyness (HBO)
The skinny: While Saturday Night Live has dominated here for far too long, I think Last Week Tonight‘s recategorization will usher in a new era of dominance. But any confusion could easily lead to an SNL win (at least this year).
WRITING FOR A VARIETY SERIES
The Daily Show with Trevor Noah
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
Late Night with Seth Meyers
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert
Saturday Night Live
Will and should win: Last Week Tonight
Could win: Saturday Night Live
Should have been nominated: A Black Lady Sketch Show
The skinny: Yeah, Oliver’s staff are winning yet again. The safest bet of the night.