With virtually all FYC events canceled and almost all productions halted, voters theoretically have had a lot more time to see more shows. And with new rules regarding the number of nominees in each category (which I still don’t fully understand), there’s the possibility of newcomers and frequently overlooked performers will finally get the attention they deserve. So here’s what I think will be nominated this year.
DRAMA SERIES
Better Call Saul (AMC)
Big Little Lies (HBO)
The Crown (Netflix)
The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
Ozark (Netflix)
Pose (FX)
Stranger Things (Netflix)
Succession (HBO)
Potential surprises:
Black Mirror (Netflix) – recently ruled a Drama Series; 3 wins for Television Movie
Homeland (Showtime) – 4 nominations including 1 win
Killing Eve (BBC America) – 1 nomination
The Mandalorian (Disney+) – new show
The Morning Show (AppleTV+) – new show
This Is Us (NBC) – 3 nominations
The Outsider (HBO) – new show
Westworld (HBO) – 2 nominations
Ineligible: Bodyguard, Game of Thrones
In my dreams: Mindhunter (Netflix)
The skinny: With Game of Thrones‘ reign of terror finally over, it’s anyone’s guess who will take over. Most of these shows aired over a year ago, so who knows if they’ll be remembered amongst the glut of new shows out. I’d peg this as a three-team race between Succession‘s second season, Ozark‘s third, and Better Call Saul‘s transcendent fifth season.
But if we’re talking about acclaimed shows that aired over a year ago, voters should look at Mindhunter‘s second season, which took a leap before sadly getting left to die because David Fincher’s too busy. (Though with the COVID-related production delays, it’s not like we would be getting a third season any time soon anyway.)
ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Jason Bateman, Ozark
Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us
Brian Cox, Succession
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Billy Porter, Pose
Jeremy Strong, Succession
Potential surprises:
Steve Carell, The Morning Show – new show
Idris Elba, Luther – recently ruled a Drama Series; 4 nominations in previous category
Rami Malek, Mr. Robot – 1 win
Ben Mendelsohn, The Outsider – new show
Tobias Menzies, The Crown – new cast member
Al Pacino, Hunters – new show
Aaron Paul, Westworld – new cast member
Patrick Stewart, Star Trek: Picard – new show
Milo Ventimiglia, This Is Us – 3 nominations
Ineligible: Kit Harington
In my dreams: Holt McCallany, Mindhunter
The skinny: I would have pegged Bateman to win here were he not getting out-acted by at least three cast members. It could still happen, particularly if there’s an Ozark sweep. But this award seems particularly up for grabs. Right now, I’d say it’s split between the two Succession leads.
ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Olivia Colman, The Crown
Jodie Comer, Killing Eve
Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder
Laura Linney, Ozark
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Sandra Oh, Killing Eve
Potential surprises:
Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show – new show
Claire Danes, Homeland – 5 nominations including 2 wins
Kirsten Dunst, On Becoming a God in Central Florida – new show
Nicole Kidman, Big Little Lies – 1 win
Mandy Moore, This Is Us – 1 nomination
Evan Rachel Wood, Westworld – 2 nominations
Reese Witherspoon, Big Little Lies – 1 nomination
Reese Witherspoon, The Morning Show – new show
Zendaya, Euphoria – new show
Ineligible: Emilia Clarke, Robin Wright
In my dreams: Janelle Monae, Homecoming
The skinny: An especially stacked year. Just look at all those ladies who probably aren’t making it into the final list of nominees! But no matter how many of those names you swap out, it’s Laura Linney’s year.
SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul
Kieran Culkin, Succession
Giancarlo Esposito, Better Call Saul
David Harbour, Stranger Things
Matthew Macfadyen, Succession
Josh O’Connor, The Crown
Tom Pelphrey, Ozark
Bradley Whitford, The Handmaid’s Tale
Potential surprises:
Billy Crudup, The Morning Show – new show
Tony Dalton, Better Call Saul – never nominated
Joseph Fiennes, The Handmaid’s Tale – 1 nomination
Michael Mando, Better Call Saul – never nominated
Mandy Patinkin, Homeland – 4 nominations
Alan Ruck, Succession – never nominated
Chris Sullivan, This Is Us – 1 nomination
Jeffrey Wright, Westworld – 1 nomination + 1 nomination as Lead Actor
Any of the guys from The Outsider
Ineligible: Alfie Allen, Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, Peter Dinklage, Michael Kelly
In my dreams: Antony Starr, The Boys
The skinny: By far the category with the most submissions. It’s also got a lot of turnover, which should hold for some nice surprises. But like his co-star, this is Pelphrey’s award to lose.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Helena Bonham Carter, The Crown
Laura Dern, Big Little Lies
Cynthia Erivo, The Outsider
Julia Garner, Ozark
Janet McTeer, Ozark
Rhea Seehorn, Better Call Saul
Sarah Snook, Succession
Meryl Streep, Big Little Lies
Potential surprises:
Millie Bobby Brown, Stranger Things – 2 nominations
Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale – 2 nominations including 1 win
Zoe Kravitz, Big Little Lies – never nominated
Gugu Mbatha-Raw, The Morning Show – new show
Thandie Newton, Westworld – 2 nominations including 1 win
Hunter Schafer, Euphoria – new show
Fiona Shaw, Killing Eve – 1 nomination
Yvonne Strahovski, The Handmaid’s Tale – 1 nomination
Mare Winningham, The Outsider – new show
Shailene Woodley, Big Little Lies – 1 nomination
Ineligible: Gwendoline Christie, Lena Headey, Sophie Turner, Maisie Williams
In my dreams: Diane Guerrero, Orange Is the New Black
The skinny: The most unpredictable category by far. Big Little Lies‘ second season was oft-maligned (I thought it was good), but the only reason for it to exist was the addition of Meryl Streep as Nicole Kidman’s mother-in-law. If she ends up being the only person nominated after a season with a troubled production and mixed reception, that’s quite all right with me. But failing to nominate Rhea Seehorn again would go down as their worst mistake of the decade.
WRITING FOR A DRAMA SERIES
Better Call Saul
Big Little Lies
The Crown
The Handmaid’s Tale
Killing Eve
Succession
Potential surprises:
Black Mirror – recently ruled a Drama Series; 2 wins in previous category
The Outsider – new show
Ozark – never nominated
Stranger Things – 2 nominations
Ineligible: Bodyguard, Game of Thrones
In my dreams: The Man in the High Castle
The skinny: This is almost a guaranteed repeat.
DIRECTING FOR A DRAMA SERIES
Better Call Saul
The Crown
The Handmaid’s Tale
Ozark
Stranger Things
Succession
Potential surprises:
Big Little Lies (not officially submitted) – 1 win
Euphoria – new show
Killing Eve – 1 nomination
The Outsider – new show
Westworld – 1 nomination
Ineligible: Game of Thrones
In my dreams: The Mandalorian
The skinny: Better Call Saul may never get its due. But if it has a chance, it’s here, with Vince Gilligan’s literally explosive desert epic.