BEST PICTURE
Judas and the Black Messiah
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
One Night in Miami…
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Dark Horse: Da 5 Bloods
Long Shot: Sound of Metal
Total Shock: Never Rarely Sometimes Always
The skinny: Proof that the Academy is stupid: They’ll have forgotten about Da 5 Bloods, which came out all the way back in June. Judas and the Black Messiah is the beneficiary of the lengthened eligibility period, and could end up with anywhere from one to six nominations, though only four seem likely. Given that this is such an unusual year, it is within the realm of possibility that there are nine or even 10 nominees, which is the only way I see Sound of Metal getting in here. Sadly, this means that a lot of smaller independent movies – some of which actually played in theaters before the pandemic hit! – are still going to get the shaft, including Never Rarely Sometimes Always, which will likely have to settle for a Best Original Screenplay nomination.
BEST DIRECTOR
David Fincher, Mank
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Dark Horse: Regina King, One Night in Miami…
Long Shot: Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
Total Shock: Kelly Reichardt, First Cow
The skinny: This slate matches the DGA nominees, which is not necessarily a guarantee the Oscars will go for the exact same group. I’m fond of The Trial of the Chicago 7, but letting Sorkin in over first-timer Regina King is absolute foolishness. It would be awesome if Fincher was also the only white dude, and Kelly Reichardt could finally get her do as one of this country’s finest filmmakers.
BEST ACTOR
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari
Dark Horse: Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Long Shot: Ben Affleck, The Way Back
Total Shock: Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
The skinny: Poor Delroy Lindo. He’s given a lifetime of great performances on screens big and small (He’s the one in that viral “So say it!” clip from The Good Fight). And his performance in Da 5 Bloods is the best in the film and one of the very best in any film this year. But like I said, it’s already been forgotten by most Academy members, so these will be our five. (Unless Sony Pictures Classics has screwed up worse than I thought, and Anthony Hopkins is in danger.)
Now, about that Borat sequel. It’s widely believed newcomer Maria Bakalova is a shoo-in for a Best Supporting Actress nod. While I think that’s true, the film has received even more recognition than expected, and not just for her performance. Baron Cohen won the Golden Globe for Actor in a Musical or Comedy (where Bakalova didn’t), and the film itself won Best Picture – Musical or Comedy. But now it’s also been nominated for Best Picture of the Year by the PGA. While I don’t think there’s any way it becomes a Best Picture nominee, that luck could extend to Best Actor, or it could even repeat its predecessor and pick up an Adapted Screenplay nod.
BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Dark Horse: Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot
Long Shot: Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
Total Shock: Radha Blank, The Forty-Year-Old Version
The skinny: While Rosamund Pike is coming on strong after a Golden Globe win, and with a movie likely seen by more people than all the other nominees’ films combined, I still think she’s on the outside looking in. If anyone’s in danger, it’s Kirby, whose film isn’t quite as old, but has faded, and seen its other possible nominees vanish over the last month. As beloved as Amy Adams is, I would be shocked if Hillbilly Elegy gets anything other than another nod for Glenn Close. But while the BAFTAs radically changed their eligibility rules – and thus can’t be used as a reliable predictor – Radha Blank has hung out on the fringes of awards season, picking up awards and nominations here and there for her semi-autobiographical comedy The Forty-Year-Old Version. Will that have been enough reason for the Academy to fire up Netflix and check it out? Probably. Will that be enough for her to get nominated? Probably not.
