This is the last of my brief overview at the probable Oscar nominees before they’re announced. I’ll take one final, full-length stab at this on Wednesday, Jan. 9.
BEST PICTURE
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Falling off: Nothing
Rising star: Django Unchained
The skinny: Nothing changes here, because I just can’t read what’s going to happen. Beasts of the Southern Wild continues to get mentioned by critics, but critics don’t vote. Django Unchained had a big opening and lots of controversy. But is will any voters make it their No. 1 on the ballot? All but Django have very strong support groups, but its newness may help it in the long run.
BEST DIRECTOR
Michael Haneke, Amour
Ben Affleck, Argo
Tom Hooper, Les Misérables
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Falling off: No one
Rising star: Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
The skinny: Again, if Django continues to get people talking, it could sneak into some races it was previously shut out of. Of course, it could wind up mostly empty-handed.
BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Denzel Washington, Flight
Falling off: Joaquin Phoenix
Rising star: Richard Gere, Arbitrage
The skinny: I think SAG and the Oscars will line up this year. Joaquin Phoenix did himself no favors by hating on the whole awards season. While his performance is fantastic, it’s not the kind that regularly gets nominated for Oscars. It’s too dark, too weird, to be nominated by his fellow actors.
BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Falling off: No one
Rising star: Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
The skinny: Sony is going to have spend every last cent on trying to get Emmanuelle Riva nominated for Amour, but their window is running out.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Falling off: Matthew McConaughey
Rising star: Eddie Redmayne, Les Misérables
The skinny: Does the man with the abs still have what it takes to get nominated? I thought it was a long shot this summer, and it’s still difficult now. If the trio of great supporting performances in Django cancel each other out, Eddie Redmayne could get in with a Les Miz sweep.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Falling off: Amy Adams
Rising stars: Samantha Barks, Les Misérables
The skinny: Is Nicole Kidman for real? Her nominations from major players so far seem to suggest she is. But the Oscars love Amy Adams, and between her work in The Master and Trouble with the Curve, she could still make it in. But if there’s a big Les Miz sweep, Samantha Barks could deservingly find her name called.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Amour
Django Unchained
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty
Falling off: Looper
Rising star: Middle of Nowhere
The skinny: I really hope Looper is not dismissed as genre fare, because it deserves this nomination the most of all the other scripts. It’s going to be a tight race.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Lincoln
The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Silver Linings Playbook
Falling off and rising star: Bernie
The skinny: I feel that the critics will only stick up for one of two movies (Argo, Beasts, Lincoln and SLP are all prestige), and right now it looks like Perks has the edge. But it could just as easily go to Bernie, which has campaigned valiantly.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Rabbi’s Cat
Wreck-It Ralph
Falling off: Nothing
Rising star: Rise of the Guardians
The skinny: The Rabbi’s Cat has not made any huge impact, but the Oscars are more likely to go with something more independent than DreamWorks’ bomb.