BEST PICTURE
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Unbroken
Falling off: The Theory of Everything
Rising star: Mr. Turner
The skinny: November’s the hardest month to write this outlook, since at least half the field has yet to open. The buzz around The Theory of Everything has cooled, at least in terms of its Best Picture prospects. But in a year without a front-runner, expect it to pop up again if it takes off at the box office. And until I see a trailer or a major premiere or really anything for Mr. Turner, it’s not a lock for me yet.
BEST DIRECTOR
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
P.T. Anderson, Inherent Vice
Angelina Jolie, Unbroken
Falling off: Christopher Nolan
Rising star: Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
The skinny: Nolan gets shut out once again, but Interstellar may not even make it into the final slate of Best Picture nominees thanks to middling reviews. It will still do extremely well in the craft categories, but its grand vision may be halted. The Imitation Game, though, is full steam ahead, even if its director is an unknown in the U.S.
BEST ACTOR
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Falling off: No one
Rising star: Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
The skinny: American Sniper needs a big push if Cooper hopes to continue his nomination streak. That’s how tough this category is.
BEST ACTRESS
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Falling off: Amy Adams
Rising star: Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Belle
The skinny: Late December is just way too crowded, and I’m surprised more studios haven’t held some of their hopefuls until next year. Then again, with nothing set in stone, I can’t blame them for sticking around. Big Eyes remains a big question mark, even if Amy Adams is beloved by just about everyone. Julianne Moore—who hasn’t been nominated since her two-fer in 2002—has the momentum right now.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher
Falling off: No one
Rising star: Tom Wilkinson, Selma
The skinny: Another formidable line-up. If anyone falls out, I just pray they pick someone doing more interesting work than Tom Wilkinson in Selma. I’d love a category full of weirdos.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Shohreh Aghdashloo, Rosewater
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Katherine Waterston, Inherent Vice
Falling off: No one
Rising star: Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
The skinny: Chastain seems to be out of the Best Actress race for both The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby and Interstellar, but she might be able to make a push as Oscar Isaac’s long-suffering housewife in late-surger A Most Violent Year.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken
Falling off: Nothing
Rising star: American Sniper
The skinny: American Sniper might beat out The Theory of Everything, but I’d be shocked if anything else fell off.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Whiplash
Falling off: Interstellar
Rising star: Top Five
The skinny: Interstellar‘s hokey sentimentality will keep it off the final list. Might we see some Best Picture also-rans like Grand Budapest and Whiplash take the spot?
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The LEGO Movie
The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
Falling off: The Book of Life
Rising star, still: Song of the Sea
The skinny: Studio Ghibli will not be disrespected.