While the extended season offered plenty of pros and cons, there are still a few races that don’t seem quite over. So here’s what should and will win, but remember that you shouldn’t be putting money based on my picks.
BEST PICTURE
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Will and should win: Nomadland
Could win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Should have been here: First Cow
The skinny: After the dust settled, the front-runner for at least a year is still the front-runner. That’s just fine with me, since it’s also my favorite movie of the year. There’s an outside chance The Trial of the Chicago 7 repeats its SAG win here, but absolutely no one wants that, including me (a defender of the film). If Aaron Sorkin’s film pulls off some upsets in the technical categories on Sunday, then it’s a threat here.
BEST DIRECTOR
Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
David Fincher, Mank
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
Will and should win: Chloé Zhao
Could win: David Fincher
Should have been here: Regina King, One Night in Miami…
The skinny: There’s even less suspense here. Zhao will become just the second woman and first POC to win in this category. That’s a lock, and cause for celebration.
BEST ACTOR
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari
Will win: Chadwick Boseman
Could win: Anthony Hopkins
Should win: Riz Ahmed
Should have been here: Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
The skinny: If you swap Oldman for Delroy Lindo, this is one of greatest Best Actor line-ups of all time. Still, four out of the five are giving some of the best performances of their careers. Hopkins has surged in recent weeks, especially after a BAFTA win. But this is the first and only time the Academy has nominated Boseman, and it will be more than just a posthumous award. His performance represents everything that made him great. I prefer Riz Ahmed, but he will get more chances to shine.
BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Will win: Viola Davis
Could and should win: Frances McDormand
Should have been here: Jessie Buckley, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
The skinny: This category has been absolute chaos all season long. Kirby’s the only nominee not to pick up a major award. She’s the best part of a weak movie, but there’s a long list of actresses who did better work in better films. (Jessie Buckley chief among them.) While I think McDormand is extraordinary, she did just win three years ago for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (which we will not be relitigating). As someone pointed out on Twitter (and I wish I could remember who), any time Best Actress has been close in the last 20 years, the Oscar has always gone to the woman playing a real person. That’s not surprising, but historically disappointing. So for now I’m going with Davis, who did win four years ago in a controversially placed Supporting Actress. She deserved it regardless, but she’s a lead in Fences. And now we have the inverse. As the powerful singer, she’s arguably a supporting character, given how little screen time she has. But I think she’ll finally claim the top award she should have won nine years ago for The Help. Then again, there’s an outside chance that Andra Day could also win for playing a powerful singer, albeit in a much less heralded movie.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr, One Night in Miami…
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
Will win: Daniel Kaluuya
Could win: Lakeith Stanfield
Should win: Paul Raci
Should have been here: Orion Lee, First Cow
The skinny: There are only two valid perspectives: Daniel Kaluuya and Lakeith Stanfield are co-leads in Judas and the Black Messiah, or Stanfield is the lead and Kaluuya is supporting. But in no possible sense are they both supporting performances. No matter. Kaluuya will win, and he’s tremendous as Fred Hampton. I prefer Paul Raci, who is the platonic ideal of a supporting performance. But Kaluuya should have won for Get Out, so this is still a beautiful outcome.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Yuh-jung Youn, Minari
Will win: Yuh-jung Youn
Could and should win: Maria Bakalova
Should have been here: Talia Ryder, Never Rarely Sometimes Always
The skinny: Make no mistake: I will be thrilled when Yuh-jung Youn picks up her Oscar. She gave one of my favorite performances of the year. But the Academy still can’t seem to bring themselves to award a comedy. Yes, the surprise Borat sequel picked up two nominations. But it’s highly unlikely they’ll give this award to the fearless Bakalova, who stormed in and stole the film from Sacha Baron Cohen. It’s disappointing, but not surprising.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Judas and the Black Messiah
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Will win: Promising Young Woman
Could and should win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Should have been here: Palm Springs
The skinny: This pretty much comes down to coin flip. Both are entertaining and thought-provoking films that have significant flaws. Both were directed by their screenwriters. Aaron Sorkin already has an Oscar while Emerald Fennell is the newcomer. I’m giving the slight edge to Promising Young Woman, given the edgier winners of recent years (Parasite, Get Out). Then again, they did give Green Book this award two years ago, so maybe that’s a point in favor of The Trial of the Chicago 7.
And speaking of ignoring comedies, Palm Springs was one of the best films released during lockdown, a dizzying reinvention of the Groundhog Day formula. Give me that over the muddled Judas and the Black Messiah script.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
The Father
Nomadland
One Night in Miami…
The White Tiger
Will win: Nomadland
Could win: The Father
Should win: One Night in Miami…
Should have been here: First Cow
The skinny: A lot of people seem to think this is where The Father will be honored, if at all. But I’m going by a reliable precursor: the USC Scripter Award. Last year was the first time in a decade the winner lost at the Oscars. (It correctly went to Greta Gerwig’s Little Women adaptation.) Since Nomadland won this year, I’m predicting it takes the Oscar, too.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Onward
Over the Moon
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Soul
Wolfwalkers
Will and should win: Soul
Could win: Wolfwalkers
Should have been here: The Croods: A New Age
The skinny: Look, I get it. We’re all a little tired of Pixar’s dominance in this category. But I don’t think this is the year to raise such a stink. Soul and Onward were both moving experiences, even if they’ve got some flaws. Wolfwalkers is by far the best-looking movie in this category, but it’s got some rote storytelling. So I won’t be mad when Pixar wins yet again.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
Another Round (Denmark)
Better Days (Hong Kong)
Collective (Romania)
The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)
Will and should win: Another Round
Could win: Collective
Should have been here: N/A
The skinny: The only time in recent years a foreign language film has shown up in Best Picture or Best Director and lost here is Cold War, which lost the latter category to Roma, another foreign-language film. Another Round is one of the year’s best, regardless of language.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Collective
Crip Camp
The Mole Agent
My Octopus Teacher
Time
Will win: My Octopus Teacher
Could and should win: Time
Should have been here: Boys State
The skinny: This is the category where I’m going to be the most upset. I’m sure My Octopus Teacher is a surprising, delightful experience. But there’s no way in hell it’s more moving or vital than Time. A loss here is frankly unacceptable.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Colette
A Concerto Is a Conversation
Do Not Split
Hunger Ward
A Love Song for Latasha
Will win: A Concerto Is a Conversation
Could win: Hunger Ward
Should win: N/A
Should have been here: N/A
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Feeling Through
The Letter Room
The Present
Two Distant Strangers
White Eye
Will win: Two Distant Strangers
Could win: Feeling Through
Should win: N/A
Should have been here: N/A
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Burrow
Genius Loci
If Anything Happens I Love You
Opera
Yes-People
Will win: If Anything Happens I Love You
Could win: Burrow
Should win: N/A
Should have been here: N/A
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Father
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
News of the World
Tenet
Will win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Could win: The Father
Should win: Mank
Should have been here: Emma.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Emma.
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
Pinocchio
Will win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Could win: Emma.
Should win: Mulan
Should have been here: Promising Young Woman
BEST MAKE-UP & HAIRSTYLING
Emma.
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Pinocchio
Will win: Pinocchio
Could win: Hillbilly Elegy
Should win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Should have been here: Birds of Prey
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
News of the World
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Will and should win: Nomadland
Could win: Mank
Should have been here: Possessor
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Love and Monsters
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
The One and Only Ivan
Tenet
Will win: The Midnight Sky
Could and should win: Tenet
Should have been here: Welcome to Chechnya
BEST FILM EDITING
The Father
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Will win: Sound of Metal
Could win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Should win: The Father
Should have been here: Time
BEST SOUND
Greyhound
Mank
News of the World
Soul
Sound of Metal
Will and should win: Sound of Metal
Could win: Greyhound
Should have been here: The Vast of Night
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Da 5 Bloods
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Soul
Will and should win: Soul
Could win: Minari
Should have been here: Tenet
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Husavik” (Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga)
“Fight for You” (Judas and the Black Messiah)
“Io sì (Seen)” (The Life Ahead)
“Speak Now” (One Night in Miami…)
“Hear My Voice” (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Will win: “Speak Now”
Could win: “Hear My Voice”
Should win: “Husavik”
Should have been here: “Wuhan Flu” (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
Winners:
Another Round – International Feature
Judas and the Black Messiah – Supporting Actor
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Actor, Actress, Costume Design, Production Design
The Midnight Sky – Visual Effects
Minari – Supporting Actress
My Octopus Teacher – Documentary Feature
Nomadland – Picture, Directing, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography
One Night in Miami… – Original Song
Pinocchio – Make-up & Hairstyling
Promising Young Woman – Original Screenplay
Soul – Animated Feature, Original Score
Sound of Metal – Film Editing, Sound
Losers: Better Days; Borat Subsequent Moviefilm; Collective; Crip Camp; Da 5 Bloods; Emma.; Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga; The Father; Greyhound; Hillbilly Elegy; The Life Ahead; Love and Monsters; The Man Who Sold His Skin; Mank; The Mole Agent; Mulan; News of the World; The One and Only Ivan; Onward; Over the Moon; Pieces of a Woman; Quo Vadis, Aida?; Tenet; Time; The Trial of the Chicago 7; The United States vs. Billie Holiday; The White Tiger