Oscar Guide 2017

Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling in La La Land
BEST PICTURE
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

Will win: La La Land
Could win: Hidden Figures
Should win: Moonlight
Should have been here: Silence

The skinny: It’s going to be a long, suspense-free night on Sunday. La La Land is going to sweep in every category it’s nominated, except Best Actor. There’s the remote possibility a few technical awards might not go its way (and maybe not even original screenplay), but expect to hear the orchestra play Justin Hurwitz’s score almost the entire night. If there’s a shocking upset, it would go to the crowd-pleasing historical drama Hidden Figures, by far the biggest of this year’s nominees. But that would be a true anomaly, since it won’t win any other Oscars.

Damien Chazelle and Emma Stone of La La Land
BEST DIRECTOR
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Will win: Damien Chazelle
Should and could win: Barry Jenkins
Should have been here: Martin Scorsese, Silence

The skinny: Chazelle’s got this in the bag. At 32, he would be the youngest Best Director winner ever. His only competition is Barry Jenkins, but if Moonlight doesn’t win Best Picture (which it won’t), I don’t see how he can win this. And while I’m a big advocate of not just nominating the same people over and over, it’s a real shame Scorsese’s most challenging film this century only had to settle for a cinematography nomination.

Denzel Washington in Fences
BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

Will win: Denzel Washington
Could and should win: Casey Affleck
Should have been here: Colin Farrell, The Lobster

The skinny: Side-stepping any discussions of morality in honoring Casey Affleck (besides, this is the same Academy that gave Roman Polanski an Oscar, so morality doesn’t really factor into their decisions), I think they want to give Denzel his third Oscar. It’s been 15 years since he won for Training Day and he should have won for Flight. Fences was something of a passion project for him and his role is the kind of meaty part that wins this award. That’s in contrast to Affleck’s performance (which I think is the year’s best, though I haven’t seen Fences yet), which is all internal pain and mumbling. Those performances never win, or else Joaquin Phoenix would have a couple awards by now and Colin Farrell would be nominated this year.

Emma Stone in La La Land
BEST ACTRESS
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Will win: Emma Stone
Could win: Isabelle Huppert
Should win: Natalie Portman
Should have been here: Amy Adams, Arrival

The skinny: With at least three actresses that deserved a spot here – including Amy Adams, Annette Bening and Rebecca Hall, which was never going to happen – it’s hard to pick the most deserving, because they’re all doing wildly different things. I think Emma Stone’s going to win, and I adore her, and this is probably the best performance she’s given to date. But when I think about the performances I’m going to remember years from now, it’s Natalie Portman as Jackie Kennedy. Her voice is perfect, but more impressively, she’s taking us really deep into a woman we think we know, but didn’t really. In my mind, it’s up there with Helen Mirren in The Queen. But she just won a few years ago for Black Swan, so if it’s not Stone, and since Amy Adams was bafflingly excluded, it could be Isabelle Huppert, who’s given a lifetime of bold performances, but is somehow on her first Oscar nomination. But critics don’t vote on this, so that would take a miracle.

Jaden Piner and Mahershala Ali in Moonlight
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Will and should win: Mahershala Ali
Could win: Jeff Bridges
Should have been here: John Goodman, 10 Cloverfield Lane

The skinny: This seems like the closest thing Moonlight has to a lock. If anyone else has a shot, it’s Bridges, but he just won for Crazy Heart a few years ago, and it’s not like he needs another feather in his cap at this point. Plus, Hell or High Water still feels to me like a movie that’s punching above its weight class. It’s a fine cops-and-robbers thriller, but it’s not the profound statement on Red State America it thinks it is. This should go to the man who’s been turning in great performances for years and is ready to enter the next phase of his career.

Viola Davis in Fences
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Will win: Viola Davis
Could and should win: Michelle Williams
Should have been here: Lily Gladstone, Certain Women

The skinny: Ever since it was announced Davis would campaign as a supporting actress, this award has been hers to lose. Of course, I’ve said that before. She should already have two trophies for Doubt and The Help, but was thwarted by the two best parts of otherwise bad movies (Vicki Cristina Barcelona and The Iron Lady). I don’t think that will happen this time. It’s a big part with at least one big monologue, and her award-winning work on How to Get Away with Murder (honored by her peers in the Television Academy and the Screen Actors Guild) certainly factors into this as well. But that unfortunately means Michelle Williams will have to wait yet again for her much-deserved Oscar.

Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling in La La Land
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea

Will win: La La Land
Could win: Manchester by the Sea
Should win: 20th Century Women
Should have been here: Jackie

The skinny: The only Oscar La La Land seems certain to lose is Best Actor. But if it loses any other big award, it would be this one. When it comes to all the things people love about the film, the screenplay is way down on the list. So this is the closest competition it will have. Especially if Casey Affleck loses Best Actor, this will be the only other place to honor Manchester by the Sea, one of the most acclaimed films of the year. Plus, Kenneth Lonergan wrote a dialogue-heavy script about tough issues, which certainly works in its favor. But I still pick La La Land by a hair. In my dream scenario, they split the vote and 20th Century Women sneaks in. But the nomination will have to be Mike Mills’ reward.

Alex Hibbert and Mahershala Ali in Moonlight
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

Will win: Moonlight
Could and should win: Arrival
Should have been here: Silence

The skinny: However the Academy determined Moonlight was adapted, it kind of messed everything up. I’d have given it the original screenplay award in a walk, but now that it’s up against the most complex, mind-blowing script of the year, I’d still want Arrival to win it. But that won’t happen. With its Best Picture chances slim to none, this is the best place to honor Moonlight‘s story, one we see far too rarely onscreen. Tough choices indeed.

zootopia
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

Will and should win: Zootopia
Could win: Moana
Should have been here: Sausage Party

The skinny: Disney’s only lost this award twice, and both times were more than a decade ago. So that means it’s either Zootopia or Moana. And since Frozen is the only musical to ever win, I think that means the odds are more in Zootopia‘s favor. But this is really a split decision. Zootopia has the more clever conceit and probably appeals to a wider audience, so I give it the sleight edge. Sorry if you thought this was your year, Laika fans. Stop-motion might win again one day.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper

Will win: Pearl
Could and should win: Piper
Should have been here: Abstain

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Ennemis Intérieurs
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode

Will win: Silent Nights
Could win: Ennemis Intérieurs
Should win: Abstain
Should have been here: Abstain

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
4.1 Miles
Extremis
Joe’s Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets

Will win: The White Helmets
Could win: 4.1 Miles
Should win: Abstain
Should have been here: Abstain

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
13th
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America

Will and should win: O.J.: Made in America
Could win: Fire at Sea
Should have been here: Tower

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Land of Mine (Denmark)
A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
The Salesman (Iran)
Tanna (Australia)
Toni Erdmann (Germany)

Will win: The Salesman
Could win: Toni Erdmann
Should win: Abstain
Should have been here: Abstain

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers

Will win: La La Land
Could win: Arrival
Should win: Hail, Caesar!
Should have been here: Jackie

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

Will win: La La Land
Could and should win: Jackie
Should have been here: Hail, Caesar!

BEST MAKE-UP & HAIRSTYLING
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad

Will and should win: Suicide Squad
Could win: Star Trek Beyond
Should have been here: Swiss Army Man

BEST SOUND MIXING
13 Hours
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One

Will win: La La Land
Could win: Hacksaw Ridge
Should win: Arrival
Should have been here: Deepwater Horizon

BEST SOUND EDITING
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully

Will win: La La Land
Could win: Hacksaw Ridge
Should win: Deepwater Horizon
Should have been here: Rogue One

BEST FILM EDITING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight

Will win: La La Land
Could and should win: Arrival
Should have been here: O.J.: Made in America

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence

Will win: La La Land
Could win: Arrival
Should win: Moonlight
Should have been here: Doctor Strange

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One

Will win: The Jungle Book
Could win: Deepwater Horizon
Should win: Doctor Strange
Should have been here: Arrival

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers

Will and should win: La La Land
Could win: Lion
Should have been here: Swiss Army Man

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“The Empty Chair” (Jim: The James Foley Story)
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” (La La Land)
“City of Stars” (La La Land)
“How Far I’ll Go” (Moana)
“Can’t Stop the Feeling!” (Trolls)

Will and should win: “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)”
Could win: “City of Stars”
Should have been here: “Drive It Like You Stole It” (Sing Street)

Winners:
Fences – Actor, Supporting Actress
The Jungle Book – Visual Effects
La La Land – Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Costume Design, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Film Editing, Cinematography, Original Score, Original Song
Moonlight – Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay
O.J.: Made in America – Documentary Feature
The Salesman – Foreign Language Film
Suicide Squad – Make-up & Hairstyling
Zootopia – Animated Feature

Losers:
13 Hours; 13th; Allied; Arrival; Captain Fantastic; Deepwater Horizon; Doctor Strange; Elle; Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them; Fire at Sea; Florence Foster Jenkins; Hacksaw Ridge; Hail, Caesar!; Hell or High Water; Hidden Figures; I Am Not Your Negro; Jackie; Jim: The James Foley Story; Kubo and the Two Strings; Land of Mine; Life, Animated; Lion; Loving; A Man Called Ove; Manchester by the Sea; Moana; My Life as a Zucchini; Nocturnal Animals; Passengers; The Red Turtle; Rogue One; Star Trek Beyond; Sully; Tanna; Toni Erdmann; Trolls

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