Well, here we go. After last year’s cake walk, this one’s a lot tougher to guess. Here goes nothing.
BEST PICTURE
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Will win: Birdman
Could and should win: Boyhood
Should have been here: Gone Girl
The skinny: Once again, it comes down to a coin flip. No movie has won Best Picture without being nominated for Best Editing since 1981, so does that leave out Birdman? No movie has lost the top prize from all three guilds then gone on to win Best Picture since 1996, so does that leave out Boyhood? It’s simply too close to call, so I’m going with the momentum. In two out of the last three years, the winner has gone to a movie about making movies, so Birdman has the edge (for now).
BEST DIRECTOR
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Will win: Alejandro G. Iñárritu
Could and should win: Richard Linklater
Should have been here: David Fincher, Gone Girl
The skinny: We could easily have a split this year, too. Both Birdman and Boyhood are wildly different movies, but both are feats of directorial prowess. Who had the tougher gig? Hard to say. I think regardless of what wins Best Picture, Iñárritu wins this one.
BEST ACTOR
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Will and should win: Michael Keaton
Could win: Eddie Redmayne
Should have been here: Ellar Coltrane, Boyhood
The skinny: The Academy voters have a real choice to make this year. Do they continue to honor the same Oscar-baiting inspirational real-life stories they always do, or do they honor an actor pushing himself to his limits in a role about an actor pushing himself to his limits? Redmayne has won several important precursors, but I hope (perhaps foolishly) that the Academy will look past that. Redmayne’s career is on the rise (Jupiter Ascending notwithstanding). Keaton is already 63 and movies like Birdman don’t come along every day. Against a lot of logic, I’m thinking the Academy does right by Keaton.
BEST ACTRESS
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Will win: Julianne Moore
Could and should win: Rosamund Pike
Should have been here: Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby
The skinny: This one’s an open-and-shut case. Julianne Moore, one of the most talented actresses on the face of the earth, still doesn’t have an Oscar, and she’s giving an incredible performance that goes far beyond any Disease of the Week tics. It’s her time.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Will and should win: J.K. Simmons
Could win: Edward Norton
Should have been here: Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher
The skinny: Again, it’s not even a competition at this point. Simmons deserves it, and he’ll win it.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Will and should win: Patricia Arquette
Could win: Emma Stone
Should have been here: Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer
The skinny: As always in this category, you can never say with 100% certainty who will win, no matter what recent history tells you. Patricia Arquette’s career-best work deserves to win and seems likely to. But if it’s not her, it’s kind of wide-open. Meryl Streep already has three, but Keira Knightley is overdue and Laura Dern has been turning in great performances for decades. And then there’s Emma Stone, so wonderful in everything she does, but adding in a lethal dose of venom to her trademark sweetness as Michael Keaton’s jaded daughter.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
American Sniper
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Will and should win: Whiplash
Could win: The Imitation Game
Should have been here: Gone Girl
The skinny: Now that all the dust has settled about where Whiplash belongs, it seems like a front-runner in a somewhat lackluster field. It would be a nice addition to its guaranteed Supporting Actor trophy (and possible Sound Mixing trophy). But it’s not quite a sure thing, as The Imitation Game could pick up its consolation prize here.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler
Will and should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could win: Birdman
Should have been here: Top Five
The skinny: With the competition between Birdman and Boyhood in the Best Picture race, that makes them close here, too. But much of the praise for both films stems from their craft and acting, not their screenplays. Indeed, neither film has won in this category at any major ceremony. So I think that leads to a rather common case of vote-splitting, allowing Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness’ delightful yet melancholy script to sneak in and win.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Song of the Sea
The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
Will win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Could win: Big Hero 6
Should win: Abstain
Should have been here: The LEGO Movie
The skinny: I don’t say it often, but this category is a complete travesty. As I’ve stated before, I can believe it’s possible that one or even two animated films is better The LEGO Movie. (I haven’t seen any of the others.) But there’s no way in hell there are five animated films better than The LEGO Movie. That leaves this wide-open. My guess is How to Train Your Dragon 2, which would be the first sequel to win. But it could just as easily be Big Hero 6. Or one of the indies. Good luck with this one.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
The Bigger Picture
The Dam Keeper
Feast
Me and My Moulton
A Single Life
Will win: Feast
Could win: The Bigger Picture
Should win and should have been here: Abstain
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Aya
Boogaloo and Graham
Butter Lamp
Parvaneh
The Phone Call
Will win: Boogaloo and Graham
Could win: The Phone Call
Should win and should have been here: Abstain
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Joanna
Our Curse
The Reaper
White Earth
Will win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Could win: Our Curse
Should win and should have been here: Abstain
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
CITIZENFOUR
Finding Vivian Meyer
Last Days in Vietnam
The Salt of the Earth
Virunga
Will win: CITIZENFOUR
Could win: Last Days in Vietnam
Should win: Abstain
Should have been here: Life Itself
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Wild Tales (Argentina)
Tangerines (Estonia)
Timbuktu (Mauritania)
Ida (Poland)
Leviathan (Russia)
Will win: Ida
Could win: Timbuktu
Should win and should have been here: Abstain
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Into the Woods
Interstellar
Mr. Turner
Will and should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could win: Into the Woods
Should have been here: Snowpiercer
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Inherent Vice
Into the Woods
Maleficent
Mr. Turner
Will and should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could win: Into the Woods
Should have been here: Exodus: Gods and Kings
BEST MAKE-UP & HAIRSTYLING
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Guardians of the Galaxy
Will and should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could win: Guardians of the Galaxy
Should have been here: Birdman
BEST SOUND MIXING
American Sniper
Birdman
Interstellar
Unbroken
Whiplash
Will and should win: Whiplash
Could win: Birdman
Should have been here: Begin Again
BEST SOUND EDITING
American Sniper
Birdman
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Interstellar
Unbroken
Will win: American Sniper
Could and should win: Interstellar
Should have been here: Edge of Tomorrow
BEST FILM EDITING
American Sniper
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Whiplash
Will and should win: Boyhood
Could win: American Sniper
Should have been here: Edge of Tomorrow
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ida
Mr. Turner
Unbroken
Will and should win: Birdman
Could win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should have been here: Interstellar
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy
Interstellar
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Will win: Interstellar
Could and should win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Should have been here: The Amazing Spider-Man 2
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Mr. Turner
The Theory of Everything
Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could win: The Theory of Everything
Should win: Interstellar
Should have been here: Under the Skin
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Lost Stars” (Begin Again)
“Grateful” (Beyond the Lights)
“I’m Not Gonna Miss You” (Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me)
“Everything is Awesome” (The LEGO Movie)
“Glory” (Selma)
Will win: “Glory”
Could win: “Everything is Awesome”
Should win: “Lost Stars”
Should have been here: “I’ll Get You What You Want (Cockatoo in Malibu)” (Muppets Most Wanted)
Winners:
American Sniper – Sound Editing
Birdman – Picture, Director, Actor, Cinematography
Boyhood – Supporting Actress, Film Editing
CITIZENFOUR – Documentary Feature
The Grand Budapest Hotel – Original Screenplay, Production Design, Costume Design, Make-up & Hairstyling, Original Score
How to Train Your Dragon 2 – Animated Feature
Ida – Foreign Language Film
Interstellar – Visual Effects
Selma – Original Song
Still Alice – Actress
Whiplash – Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Sound Mixing
Losers: Begin Again; Beyond the Lights; Big Hero 6; The Boxtrolls; Captain America: The Winter Soldier; Dawn of the Planet of the Apes; Finding Vivian Meyer; Foxcatcher; Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me; Guardians of the Galaxy; The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies; The Imitation Game; Inherent Vice; Into the Woods; The Judge; Last Days in Vietnam; The LEGO Movie; Leviathan; Maleficent; Mr. Turner; Nightcrawler; The Salt of the Earth; Song of the Sea; The Tale of the Princess Kaguya; Tangerines; The Theory of Everything; Timbuktu; Two Days, One Night; Unbroken; Virunga; Wild; Wild Tales; X-Men: Days of Future Past