Oscar Guide 2012

Pencils down. The awards are handed out tonight, and that’ll be it. I’ll be live-tweeting, starting around 7:30 CST. But for now, I’ll break down the eight major categories, and give my projections in the remaining sixteen.

BEST PICTURE
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Believe it or not, the race here is closer than you might think. Despite dominating the conversation while failing to light the indie box office world on fire, The Artist victory is assured by every blogger, critic and pundit. But you know what’s within a few votes of winning? The Help. It won at the SAG awards and the acting branch is by far the biggest voting bloc within the Academy. You say it can’t happen? Tell that to Crash, Shakespeare in Love and Driving Miss Daisy. Granted, a win for The Help goes against three decades of statistics, since no movie has won without a nod for Best Film Editing since Ordinary People (1980). But I’d say it’s neck-and-neck. Unfortunately, there’s no chance for my choice, the bold, visionary, heartbreaking Tree of Life. But its nomination ensures there’s still hope.

Will win: The Artist
Could win: The Help
Should win: The Tree of Life
Should have been here: Drive

BEST DIRECTOR
Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

This one definitely is locked up. And since the director’s name doesn’t appear alongside the film in this category, The Artist sweep extends here as well. Also, be prepared to see Drive popping up in just about every Should Have Been Here category.

Will win: Michael Hazanavicius
Could win: Martin Scorsese
Should win: Terrence Malick
Should have been here: Nicolas Winding Refn, Drive

BEST ACTOR
Demián Bichir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

What an interesting race we’ve got. Always a stacked category, I think the Best Actor field is split more than ever before. You’ve got two Hollywood golden boys, a Mexican superstar, an extremely well-respected Brit getting his first nomination and a Frenchman who’s charmed the pants off everyone in the last month (metaphorically, of course). So who gets the highest percentage of the votes? I say Dujardin, but just barely.

Will win: Jean Dujardin
Could win: George Clooney
Should win: Brad Pitt
Should have been here: Michael Fassbender, Shame

BEST ACTRESS
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn

Streep deserves a third Oscar, and Williams and Close deserve their first, but those awards will come for better movies. So this is Davis’s year, hands down, as much to make up for her unfortunate snub in 2009 (how does she lose to Penelope Cruz? How?!) as it is for her extraordinary performance.

Will and should win: Viola Davis
Could win: Meryl Streep
Should have been here: Charlize Theron, Young Adult (and Bérénice Bejo)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

In an effort to make this race more interesting, prognosticators have pointed to von Sydow’s seeming rise, because he’s also old, never won and is nominated for a role in a Best Picture nominee, while Plummer has only racked up every conceivable award. Listen, folks: it’s not a race. Plummer wins, plain and simple, as he should.

Should and will win: Christopher Plummer
Could win: Max von Sydow
Should have been here: Albert Brooks, Drive

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help

Also having it all wrapped up is Spencer should walk away with this award, too, and all just for telling Hilly Holbrook (Bryce Dallas Howard), “Eat… my… shit.” Speaking of which, Melissa McCarthy dropped it in a sink and gave one of the bravest, funniest performances in recent years. If she wins, it will be a triumph for comedy, akin to Kevin Kline’s victory for A Fish Called Wanda (1988). But she didn’t suffer at any point, so the award as usual goes to the most put-upon character as always. I could feasibly see Chastain winning, since she was also fantastic in The Help, but also because she appeared in every other movie released in the last year.

Will win: Octavia Spencer
Could win: Jessica Chastain
Should win: Melissa McCarthy
Should have been here: Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Margin Call
Midnight in Paris
A Separation

Let me just say this category, for all its bold choices, makes me a little angry. The Artist, for one, has no dialogue, but also no original story. It’s a nice little movie, but even if it wins Best Picture, no one will remember it for its writing. But if it pulls off a sweep, too many voters will just check it off to give it yet another award. I don’t foresee that happening, though, because Midnight in Paris has a lovely script that reminds voters why they fell in love with Woody Allen so long ago. I still wish Will Reiser’s highly personal, brutally honest and incredibly funny script for 50/50 would have made it in, because it wiped the floor with these other nominees.

Will and should win: Midnight in Paris
Could win: The Artist
Should have been here: 50/50

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Descendants
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

So which previous winner takes the gold? Will it be Alexander Payne, who won for Sideways? Will it be Steven Zaillan and Aaron Sorkin, who won for Schindler’s List and The Social Network respectively? If I was voting, I’d pick the duo that humanized the science behind Moneyball. But everyone loved The Descendants more than me, so there you go. I will be happy, because that means someone from Community (Jim Rash, who co-scripted with Payne and Nat Faxon) has an award finally.

Will win: The Descendants
Could and should win: Moneyball
Should have been here: Drive

Check out all the other categories after the jump.

Overall Achievement Categories:
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
A Cat in Paris
Chico & Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango

Will and should win: Rango
Could win: Chico & Rita
Should have been here: The Adventures of Tintin

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Dimanche
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
La Luna
A Morning Stroll
Wild Life

Will win: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Could win: La Luna
Should win: abstain
Should have been here: Enrique Wrecks the World

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Pentecost
Raju
The Shore
Time Freak
Tuba Atlantic

Will win: Tuba Atlantic
Could win: The Shore
Should win: Time Freak
Should have been here: The Interview

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The Barber of Birmingham
God is the Bigger Elvis
Incident in New Baghdad
Saving Face
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

Will win: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
Could win: Incident in New Baghdad
Should win and should have been here: abstain

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Hell and Back Again
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Undefeated

Will win: Paradise Lost 3
Could win: Undefeated
Should win: abstain
Should have been here: Tabloid

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Bullhead (Belgium)
Footnote (Israel)
In Darkness (Poland)
Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
A Separation (Iran)

Will win: A Separation
Could win: In Darkness
Should win: abstain
Should have been here: The Silent House (Uruguay)

Music and Sound Categories:
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Man or Muppet” (The Muppets)
“Real in Rio” (Rio)

Will and should win: “Man or Muppet”
Could win: “Real in Rio”
Should have been here: “Think You Can Wait” (Win Win) and at least two other nominees

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Artist
The Adventures of Tintin
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse

Will win: The Artist
Could win: War Horse
Should win: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Should have been here: Drive

BEST SOUND EDITING
Drive
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse

Will win: War Horse
Could win: Hugo
Should win: Drive
Should have been here: Super 8

BEST SOUND MIXING
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse

Will win: War Horse
Could win: Hugo
Should win: Moneyball
Should have been here: Super 8

Visual Categories:
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Will win: Hugo
Could win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Should win: HP
Should have been here: Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Will win: Hugo
Could and should win: The Tree of Life
Should have been here: Drive

BEST FILM EDITING
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball

Will win: The Artist
Could win: The Descendants
Should win: Moneyball
Should have been here: Drive

Craft Awards:
BEST MAKE-UP
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
The Iron Lady

Will win: The Iron Lady
Could and should win: HP
Should have been here: Captain America: The First Avenger

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.

Will win: Jane Eyre
Could win: The Artist
Should win: Hugo
Should have been here: Drive

BEST ART DIRECTION
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
War Horse

Will and should win: Hugo
Could win: The Artist
Should have been here: Drive