Final Oscar Picks 2023

BEST PICTURE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
TÁR
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking

Dark Horse: Triangle of Sadness
Long Shot: The Whale
Total Shock: RRR

The skinny: It’s a little funny to me after all the late surges (All Quiet on the Western Front), bad reviews (Babylon) and a weak awards showing (Women Talking), it’s the autobiographical film by a master director that’s still leading after all this time. There’s still time for any of those three to be replaced by Triangle of Sadness, which still has the Palme d’Or, strong support from international voters and a recent induction into the Criterion Collection on its side. But it could also be The Whale that sneaks in. It’s the one legitimate arthouse hit of awards season and assured nominations in Actor, Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay could push it into the top category. That still leaves RRR on the outside, despite a recent wave of support and strategic screenings for Academy voters.

BEST DIRECTOR
Damien Chazelle, Babylon
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Todd Field, TÁR

Dark Horse: Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Long Shot: Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick
Total Shock: Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave

The skinny: Everyone but Chazelle is a DGA nominee this year, and I think his biggest effort to date will still be rewarded. But he’s easily the most vulnerable. So who could get that last spot? Sarah Polley would be a welcome addition, especially since she’s never been nominated and would add to the still far-too-small number of female nominees in this category. It could be DGA nominee Kosinski, though that still seems like a surprise. And Park is overdue and just delivered his best movie yet. But the directors of All Quiet on the Western Front (Edward Berger) and Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Östlund) seem poised to overtake him.

BEST ACTOR
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living

Dark Horse: Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Long Shot: Adam Sandler, Hustle
Total Shock: Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto

The skinny: While it felt like Fraser had this locked up all season long, he only has a handful of critics’ awards to show for it. He could still pull it off, but maybe the wave of goodwill – and the chance for bigger parts – will be award enough. It really feels like Colin’s in front with Butler nipping at his heels. But I swear to god, I’m sick of this award going to someone playing a real-life historical figure. (It’s happened eight times here since 2010. Eight!)

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Dark Horse: Viola Davis, The Woman King
Long Shot: Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Total Shock: Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

The skinny: Blanchett’s either going to win her third Oscar, or Yeoh will win her first. It could go either way, but I’m expecting the former. The tricky part here is figuring out if Williams will end up here, in Supporting, or shut out altogether. I still think The Fabelmans has enough momentum for her to pick up her fifth nod, but it could be Viola Davis picking up her fifth instead. I don’t think the “grassroots” campaign for Andrea Riseborough will gain enough traction, though she seems more likely to pick up an Independent Spirit Award now.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

Dark Horse: Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Long Shot: Tom Hanks, Elvis
Total Shock: Edward Norton, Glass Onion

The skinny: I think Eddie Redmayne is this year’s Jared Leto. Leto similarly got nominated at the Globes and SAGs for playing the villain in a bad movie few people saw (2021’s The Little Things). Redmayne did the same, so I don’t see him getting in. Though if he does, it’s definitely Whishaw who’s getting canned. (Which is a shame, because Whishaw’s giving a better performance in a better movie and is just a better actor full stop.) I’m surprised all the love for Elvis likely won’t translate into a nod for Tom Hanks, but his whole shtick there marks one of his few bad performances.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Dark Horse: Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Long Shot: Jessie Buckley or Claire Foy, Women Talking
Total Shock: Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion
The skinny: This still seems like the trickiest category to predict. Would I be absolutely shocked if none of these women were nominated? No, though it seems like Condon and Curtis are on the surest footing. If Bassett’s heat is real, then she’d be just the third person to win an Oscar for playing a comic book character. That seems a little harder to do without a Best Picture nomination in this day and age, but maybe there’s a surprise there too. Wakanda Forever is easily the best thing Marvel’s done since Avengers: Endgame, and it’s got a PGA nomination in its favor.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
TÁR
Triangle of Sadness

Dark Horse: Aftersun
Long Shot: Decision to Leave
Total Shock: Nope
The skinny: I feel most confident in this category. The Aftersun swell is likely to result in a Best Actor nomination only. These are all great scripts, but there’s an embarrassment of riches in this category, leaving out some other worthy contenders.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Glass Onion
Living
She Said
The Whale
Women Talking

Dark Horse: All Quiet on the Western Front
Long Shot: White Noise
Total Shock: After Yang
The skinny: Every time I think about the scripts for She Said and The Whale getting nominated, I get a little queasy. This is a weak year for this category, but those scripts are bad and so are the movies! I was hoping White Noise could be this year’s Inherent Vice – a tricky adaptation of a tricky novel – but its Oscar hopes have evaporated like a billowing cloud.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Inu-Oh
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Pinocchio
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red

*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Close (Belgium)
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
EO (Poland)
Decision to Leave (South Korea)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters
The Janes

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

*BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Fabelmans
Top Gun: Maverick

*BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Nope
Top Gun: Maverick

BEST FILM EDITING
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Top Gun: Maverick

*BEST SOUND
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick

*BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Fabelmans
Pinocchio
Women Talking

*BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
“Lift Me Up” (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
“Ciao Papa” (Pinocchio)
“Naatu Naatu” (RRR)
“Applause” (Tell It Like a Woman)
“Hold My Hand” (Top Gun: Maverick)

Multiple nominations:
9 – Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans
8 – Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin
7 – Elvis
6 – All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Top Gun: Maverick
4 – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, TÁR, The Whale, Women Talking
3 – Pinocchio
2 – Living

*shortlisted category

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