BEST PICTURE
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Dark Horse: Drive My Car
Long Shot: Tick, Tick… Boom!
Total Shock: Spider-Man: No Way Home
The skinny: This is basically the PGA lineup, with Tick, Tick… Boom! swapped for The Lost Daughter. It’s not exciting. It’s not sexy. It’s not innovative. But here we are. If that populist body wasn’t going to nominate the biggest movie of the year (which isn’t even among the 30 best movies 2021), it has no chance at the Oscars. But I’m still hoping the year’s best movie (Drive My Car) can somehow sneak in here. Even if it doesn’t, it will still find itself with plenty of other deserving nominations.
BEST DIRECTING
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Dark Horse: Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Long Shot: Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
Total Shock: Julia Ducournau, Titane
The skinny: I would not be shocked if Kenneth Branagh found his way in here, yet another bit of recognition for his personal comeback story. But I’m still predicting Hamaguchi will pull off the same feat Thomas Vinterberg did last year, with his foreign language film earning him a much-deserved nod here, despite being absent in Best Picture.
BEST ACTOR
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Dark Horse: Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Long Shot: Nicolas Cage, Pig
Total Shock: Simon Rex, Red Rocket
The skinny: This is the same five I’ve had for a while. Cage and Rex give my two favorite performances of the year, but Cage already has an Oscar and Rex will have to settle for his Independent Spirit Award nomination. If anyone has a chance of breaking in, it’s Javier Bardem. Dinklage and Washington are both vulnerable, and either one could lose out in a wave of support for Being the Ricardos.
BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Dark Horse: Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Long Shot: Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Total Shock: Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
The skinny: As usual, there are a ton of women who could and should make the final five, but will lose out to women playing real people. This mirrors the SAG lineup exactly. Kristen Stewart still feels like she could make her way in, but she has absolutely nothing to show for it except a slew of critics’ awards and a Golden Globe nod, which are basically meaningless when talking about the Oscars this year.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Ciarán Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Dark Horse: Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
Long Shot: Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
Total Shock: Jeffrey Wright, The French Dispatch
The skinny: It’s a two-man race between Cooper and Kotsur at this point. But Cooper still has the edge. He’s due, plus he was tremendous in Nightmare Alley. This would also be one of the rare occasions for a comedic performance to win an acting award. If anyone can dislodge Leto, it’s SAG nominee Ben Affleck. Both would be hogging space that belongs to Jesse Plemons or Jeffrey Wright, neither of whom have ever been nominated.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Caitríona Balfe, Belfast
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Ruth Negga, Passing
Dark Horse: Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
Long Shot: Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Total Shock: Ann Dowd, Mass
The skinny: DeBose is understandably running away with this. She’ll be among four first-time nominees, plus the always-brilliant Ruth Negga. It’s just too bad Ann Dowd, the last best hope for the stunning Mass, is highly unlikely to even be nominated.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Dark Horse: The French Dispatch
Long Shot: A Hero
Total Shock: Nine Days
The skinny: A little annoyed this category doesn’t have any room for Wes Anderson, Asghar Farhadi or my beloved Nine Days, written by Edson Oda. None of these scripts “wow” me, though it will be nice for PTA to finally get an Oscar.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CODA
Drive My Car
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Dark Horse: Dune
Long Shot: Nightmare Alley
Total Shock: The Humans
The skinny: This is Campion’s to lose, but this is a stacked category, and she’ll have some competition.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Belle
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Flee (Denmark)
Compartment No. 6 (Finland)
A Hero (Iran)
Drive My Car (Japan)
Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The First Wave
Flee
Procession
The Rescue
Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Dune
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Cruella
Dune
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
The Suicide Squad
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Belfast
Dune
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune
Free Guy
Godzilla vs. Kong
The Matrix Resurrections
Spider-Man: No Way Home
BEST FILM EDITING
Belfast
Dune
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
Tick, Tick… Boom!
BEST SOUND
Dune
The Matrix Resurrections
The Power of the Dog
A Quiet Place Part II
West Side Story
BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Encanto
The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun
The Power of the Dog
BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
“So May We Start?” (Annette)
“Beyond the Shore” (CODA)
“Dos Oruguitas” (Encanto)
“Be Alive” (King Richard)
“No Time to Die” (No Time to Die)
Multiple nominations:
12 – The Power of the Dog
10 – Dune
7 – West Side Story
6 – Belfast, Licorice Pizza
5 – King Richard
4 – CODA, House of Gucci
3 – Being the Ricardos, Don’t Look Up, Drive My Car, Encanto, Flee, The Lost Daughter
2 – Cruella; The Eyes of Tammy Faye; The Matrix Resurrections; Nightmare Alley; Tick, Tick… Boom!; The Tragedy of Macbeth