Final Oscar Picks 2016

On Thursday, the 88th Academy Award nominations will be announced. More than any year in recent memory, nearly every single category is up in the air. Sure, there are a few locks in some categories, but overall, anything seems possible. Straight Outta Compton nominated for Best Picture and nothing else? It could happen. Alicia Vikander getting nominated twice, in a correction to category fraud? Definitely possible. No acting nominees from the outstanding cast of Spotlight? It’s in play. So here we go.

The cast of Spotlight
BEST PICTURE
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Spotlight

Dark Horse: Straight Outta Compton
Long Shot: Bridge of Spies
Total Shock: Inside Out

The skinny: As pointed out in this great Indiewire article, the Academy’s preferential ballot system actually works against itself in a year with this many great movies and no consensus: a movie has to get at least five percent of the available No. 1 votes to get a nomination for Best Picture. If there’s an overwhelming choice for No. 1, the votes get redistributed until we get somewhere between five and 10 nominees. But this year, consensus hasn’t happened, so I wouldn’t be shocked if we have five or 10. There were eight last year, and that seems like a good number this year. But truly, I only have confidence that The Big Short, The Revenant and Spotlight make it. Any or all of the others could make or miss the cut. The biggest question mark is Straight Outta Compton. It was a huge hit and has been nominated by three of the four guilds (only missing out on F. Gary Gray for director), but has only the longest of long shots in two other minor categories (Film Editing and Sound Mixing). There wouldn’t really be any precedent for it.

Tom Hardy and George Miller on the set of Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST DIRECTOR
Todd Haynes, Carol
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

Dark Horse: Adam McKay, The Big Short
Long Shot: Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
Total Shock: Cary Joji Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation

The skinny: Depending on how big the surge for The Big Short is, Todd Haynes might actually be in danger of still never being nominated. I’m a little more confident in the other guys.

Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant
BEST ACTOR
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Dark Horse: Steve Carell, The Big Short
Long Shot: Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul
Total Shock: Michael B. Jordan, Creed

The skinny: Could Depp, Fassbender and maybe even Redmayne all miss? It’s possible, but none of it matters, because Leo is winning.

brooklyn-gleeson_ronan
BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Emily Blunt, Sicario
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Dark Horse: Rooney Mara, Carol and/or Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Long Shot: Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Total Shock: Nina Hoss, Phoenix

The skinny: The thing that’s hardest about this category is whether the Oscars will correct the faulty campaigns of Carol and The Danish Girl. Both Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander are unquestionably giving lead performances there, but both are being pushed for supporting. Too much confusion could end up with them both left out. If they stay supporting, I feel pretty confident in this slate.

Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Dark Horse: Christian Bale, The Big Short
Long Shot: Benicio Del Toro, Sicario
Total Shock: Paul Dano, Love & Mercy

The skinny: What a stumper. Mark Rylance is a shoo-in, but the others? They’re all deserving, but there are also 10 other actors who could say the same thing. Spotlight has Michael Keaton going against Mark Ruffalo (I don’t think both make it), to say nothing of Brian James D’arcy, John Slattery or Liev Schreiber. And The Big Short might swap Bale for Carrell or Ryan Gosling in this category. But this all leaves out great work from Sicario. And some folks are still holding out hope for Jacob Tremblay in Room, but there hasn’t been a boy nominated here since Haley Joel Osment.

Alicia Vikander is The Danish Girl
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Dark Horse: Joan Allen, Room
Long Shot: Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
Total Shock: Elizabeth Banks, Love & Mercy

The skinny: If the Academy buys Mara and Vikander as supporting (and Vikander doesn’t miss out because people are also voting for her superior work in Ex Machina), this might be set. Jennifer Jason Leigh would replace Helen Mirren in Trumbo from SAG’s slate. But the big surprise might be Joan Allen, who hasn’t been nominated since The Contender and has no precursor awards to speak of. It’s an honest-to-God supporting performance and might end up with the big shock.

The cast of Spotlight
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Ex Machina
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Sicario
Spotlight

Dark Horse: Bridge of Spies
Long Shot: Son of Saul
Total Shock: Trainwreck

The skinny: Here’s where we get interesting. All of these films have terrific screenplays brimming with interesting ideas. If Bridge of Spies experiences a resurgence, then it might take one of these slots (probably Sicario‘s, sadly).

Ryan Gosling in The Big Short
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Big Short
Carol
The Martian
Room
Steve Jobs

Dark Horse: Brooklyn
Long Shot: Mad Max: Fury Road
Total Shock: Me and Earl and the Dying Girl

The skinny: All probable Best Picture nominees, except for Room. I think this is the strongest category for Room, since I honestly think a lot of voters won’t see it, but writers tend to save the day. That means Brooklyn is on the sidelines (and I think the most vulnerable of the Best Picture nominees).

The feelings of Inside Out
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Anomalisa
Inside Out
The Peanuts Movie
The Prophet
Shaun the Sheep Movie

Dark Horse: The Good Dinosaur
Long Shot: When Marnie Was There
Total Shock: Minions

The skinny: It’s a battle between Inside Out and Anomalisa (and Inside Out is gonna mop the floor with Anomalisa). Will The Good Dinosaur‘s gorgeous visuals overcome its tepid reception? If this were any other year, I’d say yes. But one Pixar movie (especially one as amazing as Inside Out) will be plenty. But if Minions gets nominated, I’m going to scream.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Brand New Testament (Belgium)
Mustang (France)
Labyrinth of Lies (Germany)
Son of Saul (Hungary)
Theeb (Jordan)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Amy
Cartel Land
Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
The Hunting Ground
The Look of Silence

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Bridge of Spies
Cinderella
Crimson Peak
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Carol
Cinderella
Crimson Peak
The Danish Girl
The Hateful Eight

BEST MAKE-UP & HAIRSTYLING
Black Mass
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant

BEST SOUND MIXING
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

BEST SOUND EDITING
Inside Out
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

BEST FILM EDITING
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Spotlight

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Walk

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Carol
The Danish Girl
The Hateful Eight
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“So Long” (Concussion)
“Hey Baby Doll” (Danny Collins)
“See You Again” (Furious 7)
“’Til it Happens to You” (The Hunting Ground)
“Simple Song #3” (Youth)

Multiple nominations:
9 – Mad Max: Fury Road
8 – Carol, The Revenant
7 – The Hateful Eight, The Martian, Spotlight
5 – The Danish Girl
4 – Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3 – The Big Short, Inside Out, Steve Jobs
2 – Black Mass, Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Cinderella, Crimson Peak, The Hunting Ground, Room, Sicario

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