On Thursday, Chris Pine, Alfonso Cuarón and J.J. Abrams will announce the nominations for the 87th Academy Awards. In a perceived weak year, all categories are up for grabs (except Lead Actor and Lead Actress) so these guesses are just that. As with last year, I’ll detail the major races, and leave the craft categories strictly to my believed set of nominees.
BEST PICTURE
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Dark Horse: Gone Girl
Long Shot: Whiplash
Total Shock: Guardians of the Galaxy
The skinny: When there can be anywhere from five to 10 nominees, it’s a big guessing game. We’ve had nine nominees the last three years, so it’s a total crapshoot here. I’d be just as likely to believe you if you took away American Sniper, Foxcatcher and Selma or if you added Gone Girl. But a Whiplash nomination, while worthy, seems impossible. Critics love it, and J.K. Simmons is a shoo-in for Best Supporting Actor. But just not enough people have seen it. People would have to really, deeply love it for it to get any sort of traction. It would be the lowest-grossing Best Picture nominee since Amour, and Damien Chazelle is not Michael Haneke. So why not give it to the year’s biggest blast? Because we don’t care for superheroes at this Academy, thank you very much.
BEST DIRECTOR
Clint Eastwood, American Sniper
Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Dark Horse: Ava Duvernay, Selma
Long Shot: Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Total Shock: Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
The skinny: It could have been such an interesting year. Instead, we’re left with the usual suspects. Duvernay’s nomination depends entirely on how many people saw Selma before the deadline. While nothing is a sure thing, people who saw it are going to be immediately affected by it. Lately, it hasn’t gotten much support anywhere, so it will be an underdog the whole way. Bennett Miller has delivered both his best and best-directed film in Foxcatcher, but I don’t think it has much support aside from its acting.
BEST ACTOR
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Dark Horse: Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
Long Shot: Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Total Shock: Ellar Coltrane, Boyhood
The skinny: Tough as always, but I don’t see how these five aren’t the final nominees, no matter what SAG had to say. I won’t say Keaton is a lock to win, but even if they’re playing famous tortured geniuses, Cumberbatch and Redmayne have long careers ahead of them.
BEST ACTRESS
Jennifer Aniston, Cake
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Dark Horse: Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Long Shot: Amy Adams, Big Eyes
Total Shock: Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby
The skinny: Even if Cake and Still Alice aren’t well-respected outside their lead performances, I’d say any contenders have a lot more to overcome than bad reviews if they want to break in.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Dark Horse: Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice
Long Shot: Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher
Total Shock: Riz Ahmed, Nightcrawler
The skinny: If Robert Duvall gets nominated for the critically reviled The Judge while missing out for the much better (and better appreciated) Get Low, it will go down as one of the weirder things to happen at the Oscars since the field expanded. I think Inherent Vice simply happened to late (and it was really weird to boot), so its chances have diminished significantly. But what does it really matter, because J.K. Simmons has this thing in the bag.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Dark Horse: Naomi Watts, St. Vincent
Long Shot: Rene Russo, Nightcrawler
Total Shock: Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer
The skinny: Year after year, this is the toughest category to guess and pick. These five should do it, but you never know. Watts picked up a SAG nomination, but she’s the fourth-most deserving cast member in St. Vincent to receive an award. Russo could make it if there’s a big Nightcrawler push (doubtful, despite its critical acclaim; Open Road just isn’t a big enough player to make such an impact). Tilda Swinton should really be the one to sneak in. It would be a nice all-encompassing award for one of the year’s best films.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
American Sniper
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Whiplash
Wild
Dark Horse: Inherent Vice
Long Shot: Guardians of the Galaxy
Total Shock: Unbroken
The skinny: So the Academy, in their infinite wisdom, has determined Whiplash is an adapted screenplay for reasons that may technically be correct but ultimately make no sense. Such is their prerogative. It almost has a better shot there, given the dearth of competition. But that means Inherent Vice‘s best shot at a nomination is probably gone. Still, I’d love it if the Academy followed the lead of the WGA and nominated Guardians of the Galaxy.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Selma
Dark Horse: Nightcrawler
Long Shot: Mr. Turner
Total Shock: Top Five
The skinny: It all comes down to the Best Picture nominees. Given the recent trend of ignoring everything but the frontrunners, if one of those five isn’t also a Best Picture nominee, good luck getting in here. That’s a shame because it’s the perfect place for the dark comedy of Nightcrawler (or please please please the pure laughs of Top Five) or even for the Academy to throw Mike Leigh a bone (as they did for Another Year).
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Big Hero 6
The Book of Life
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The LEGO Movie
Dark Horse: Song of the Sea
Long Shot: The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
Total Shock: Cheatin’
The skinny: The Book of Life might have enough to make it in, even though its mixed reviews hurt it somewhat. Song of the Sea, from the director of surprise nominee The Secret of Kells has a somewhat better shot than the Studio Ghibli production The Tale of the Princess Kaguya. Too bad the Academy won’t pay tribute to another master: Bill Plympton, whose hand-drawn Cheatin’ is a treat.
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BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Wild Tales (Argentina)
Timbuktu (Mauritania)
Ida (Poland)
Leviathan (Russia)
Force Majeure (Sweden)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
CITIZENFOUR
Last Days in Vietnam
Life Itself
The Overnighters
Tales of the Grim Sleeper
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Into the Woods
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Into the Woods
Maleficent
Mr. Turner
BEST MAKE-UP & HAIRSTYLING
Foxcatcher
Guardians of the Galaxy
The Theory of Everything
BEST SOUND MIXING
American Sniper
Get on Up
Godzilla
Into the Woods
Transformers: Age of Extinction
BEST SOUND EDITING
American Sniper
Godzilla
Fury
Interstellar
Transformers: Age of Extinction
BEST FILM EDITING
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
Whiplash
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Mr. Turner
Unbroken
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Godzilla
Guardians of the Galaxy
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Interstellar
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
The Judge
The Theory of Everything
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Lost Stars” (Begin Again)
“Split the Difference” (Boyhood)
“I’m Not Gonna Miss You” (Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me)
“Everything is Awesome” (The LEGO Movie)
“Glory” (Selma)
Multiple nominations:
10 – The Imitation Game
9 – Birdman
7 – Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel
6 – American Sniper, The Theory of Everything
4 – Foxcatcher, Into the Woods, Selma
3 – Godzilla, Interstellar, Whiplash
2 – Gone Girl, Guardians of the Galaxy, The Judge, The LEGO Movie, Mr. Turner, Transformers: Age of Extinction, Wild