On Thursday morning, Chris Hemsworth will announce the nominations for the 86th Academy Awards. He may very well be reading off his Rush co-star’s name. Here are my final picks for who the nominees will be. As I did last year, I’ll offer up my picks, including potential spoilers (Dark Horses), the all-but-doomed campaigns (Long Shots) and the ones who have even less of a chance but deserve consideration (Total Shocks). I’m giving no analysis on the below-the-line categories. After all, it’s a crapshoot anyway (especially the sound categories). Here we go.
BEST PICTURE
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
The Butler
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
The Wolf of Wall Street
Dark Horse: Philomena
Long Shot: Saving Mr. Banks
Total Shock: Before Midnight
The skinny: There are four locks and everything after that gets a little fuzzy. Some people are still betting on Saving Mr. Banks, but it’s had zero big showings thus far, including at the box office. If any popular historical film is getting in, it’s SAG nominee The Butler. Philomena is allegedly the spoiler because it “plays well on screeners” and has an old British person in it. If The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel—which seemingly had both voting blocs in the bag—can’t pull off a Best Picture nod, I don’t think Philomena can either. It’s just too bad Before Midnight came out this summer. If it had dropped a few weeks ago, we’d be looking at a new frontrunner.
BEST DIRECTOR
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
Dark Horse: Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Long Shot: Spike Jonze, Her
Total Shock: Ron Howard, Rush
The skinny: It’s pretty simple here. I think Alexander Payne gets the nod over Scorsese. Despite showing his versatility, The Wolf of Wall Street may not be too divisive to get a Best Picture nod, but it’s going to have trouble getting much more. There’s not really an impetus to reward Scorsese again, but it’s really just a toss-up between him and Payne. I wish they’d both be passed over in favor of Spike Jonze, but that’s a fantasy world. It’s a shame Ron Howard was never mentioned, because this was career-revitalizing work that no one saw because it was about Formula One racing.
BEST ACTOR
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Dark Horse: Forest Whitaker, The Butler
Long Shot: Robert Redford, All is Lost
Total Shock: Joaquin Phoenix, Her
The skinny: As always, there are at least 10 actors competing for five slots. DiCaprio will make it in just under the wire, but does that mean someone like Tom Hanks might find himself forced out in favor of Forest Whitaker or Robert Redford or something more offbeat like Joaquin Phoenix? Not bloody likely, especially when he’s doing his best work since Cast Away.
BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Dark Horse: Amy Adams, American Hustle
Long Shot: Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
Total Shock: Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
The skinny: After last year made history with a slate of five previous winners, it looks to repeat itself. It’s hard to imagine Meryl Streep being the odd woman out, but there’s a lot of indifference toward August: Osage County (SAG nods not withstanding). Amy Adams, a perpetual bridesmaid, stands the best chance. She’s great, but so are Julie Delpy and Greta Gerwig, neither of which have ever been nominated.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Daniel Brühl, Rush
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Dark Horse: James Gandolfini, Enough Said
Long Shot: Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Total Shock: Sam Rockwell, The Way, Way Back
The skinny: Posthumous nods are actually rare, as Mark Harris pointed out, so Gandolfini is not a shoo-in. I really like the nominees as listed above. Cooper’s best performance yet, flanked by four newbies. Sam Rockwell should have been nominated a few times already, and his performance in The Way, Way Back is not to be discounted (though it will be).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
Dark Horse: Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Long Shot: Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
Total Shock: Scarlett Johansson, Her
The skinny: Let’s get this out of the way: Scarlett Johansson will not be nominated. It didn’t work for Zoe Saldana. It didn’t work for Andy Serkis. An actor may one day be nominated without appearing onscreen, but that’s a long day off. I doubt any of these five listed above will be let down Thursday morning. They’re all but set in stone.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Inside Llewyn Davis
Her
Nebraska
Dark Horse: Gravity
Long Shot: Dallas Buyers Club
Total Shock: The Kings of Summer
The skinny: If Gravity‘s story were a bit stronger, it might have a shot (even though it’s story holds up better than American Hustle‘s). I just wish more people had seen The Kings of Summer. It’s funnier than all these movies — though this would be the first year since 1990 that all the nominees were comedies, even though it’s a stretch to call all these comedies.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
12 Years a Slave
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
Philomena
The Wolf of Wall Street
Dark Horse: August: Osage County
Long Shot: Lone Survivor
Total Shock: The Spectacular Now
The skinny: Thanks to ineligibilities, Lone Survivor ended up a nominee, though I expect the film’s strengths don’t lie in its screenplay. Once again, Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber find themselves on the outside looking in. They should have been nominated for 500 Days of Summer back in 2010, and should be there again now.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Croods
Epic
Frozen
Monsters University
The Wind Rises
Dark Horse: Despicable Me 2
Long Shot: O Apóstolo
Total Shock: Free Birds
The skinny: Despicable Me 2 remains the biggest animated movie of the year, so why is it not here? Well, there’s simply no precedent for a sequel to get nominated when the original was ignored, except for Before Sunset‘s screenplay nod. It’s still possible. If so, say goodbye to Epic, which is gorgeously animated and severely underrated. Doesn’t matter, Frozen‘s got this in the bag.
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BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)
The Hunt (Denmark)
The Notebook (Hungary)
The Great Beauty (Italy)
Omar (Palestine)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
20 Feet from Stardom
The Act of Killing
Blackfish
The Square
Stories We Tell
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
The Great Gatsby
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
The Invisible Woman
BEST MAKE-UP & HAIRSTYLING
American Hustle
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
BEST SOUND MIXING
All is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Rush
BEST SOUND EDITING
12 Years a Slave
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Iron Man 3
Lone Survivor
BEST FILM EDITING
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Rush
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
12 Years a Slave
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Prisoners
Rush
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
Pacific Rim
World War Z
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
12 Years a Slave
The Book Thief
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Monsters University
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“My Lord Sunshine (Sunrise),” 12 Years a Slave
“Let it Go,” Frozen
“Young and Beautiful,” The Great Gatsby
“Ordinary Love,” Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
“Cut Me Some Slack,” Sound City
Multiple nominations:
12 – 12 Years a Slave
10 – Gravity
9 – American Hustle, Captain Phillips
5 – Nebraska
4 – Rush
3 – Dallas Buyers Club, The Great Gatsby, Inside Llewyn Davis, The Wolf of Wall Street
2 – August: Osage County, Blue Jasmine, The Butler, Frozen, Her, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Iron Man 3, Monsters University, Philomena