And so the chips are down. I could keep going on and on, analyzing each category. I was planning on posting this in the 11th hour, but prior obligations will keep me from doing that. That would also give me more chances to needlessly go over everything again. I’m not certain about any of these categories, so these are my best guesses, based on analysis from other writers (usually from In Contention and Grantland), precursor awards and my own hunches. I’ll dish on the big categories, but all the below-the-line categories are strictly my best assumptions.
BEST PICTURE
The Artist
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
The Tree of Life
Dark Horse: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Long Shot: Moneyball
Total Shock: Drive
The skinny: Thanks to Mark Harris’s fantastic, easy-to-read breakdown of Oscar voting rules, I’m convinced, as he is, that there will be only six nominees out of a possible ten. Why am I convinced? Because are there really 250-plus Oscar voters who think the Girl with the Dragon Tattoo or Moneyball is the absolute best movie of 2011? Sure, everyone basically likes those movies, but do they love them enough to put it above everything else? I think not. A movie like Drive (or a pet cause like Margaret) benefits the most from this scenario, but no one would consider either a contender at this point.
BEST DIRECTOR
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Michel Haznavicius, The Artist
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Dark Horse: David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Long Shot: Tate Taylor, The Help
Total Shock: Nicolas Winding Refn, Drive
The skinny: Fincher got the DGA nod, so he’s the only one with a shot of breaking up this slate of five, but I really don’t buy that he’d make it strictly because everyone realizes he should have won over Tom Hooper last year.
BEST ACTOR
Demián Bichir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Dark Horse: Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Long Shot: Michael Shannon, Take Shelter
Total Shock: Woody Harrelson, Rampart
The skinny: Despite giving the year’s best performance, Fassbender looks the most in danger of losing his spot. Since Shame is not your typical addiction movie, he doesn’t give a typical addict performance. I still like his chances, given his ubiquity and likability, but he could easily lose out to more “powerhouse” performance from DiCaprio (a SAG nominee) or Shannon (a previous surprise nominee).
BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk about Kevin
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
Dark Horse: Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Long Shot: Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Total Shock: Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia
The skinny: It all comes down to this: Is Girl with the Dragon Tattoo popular enough to get any sort of major nomination? Having not seen the movie myself, I can’t decide. I think Mara is a good bet, despite missing out on a SAG nod. It’s the kind of performance Oscar loves: a beautiful young actress ugly-ing herself up to play a dark, complex character. I think Glenn Close missed her window with Albert Nobbs‘ release schedule, despite her SAG nod and the project’s “labor of love” status.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Dark Horse: Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Long Shot: Patton Oswalt, Young Adult
Total Shock: Brad Pitt, The Tree of Life
The skinny: I think it’s clear now that Branagh and Nolte are all but guaranteed a spot. I really hope Branagh doesn’t make it, as much as I respect him. He hams it up as Sir Laurence Olivier in My Week with Marilyn, but I hope the only nomination that film gets is for Michelle Williams’s performance. Giving a nod to Nolte is a chance to recognize a critically adored film that somehow failed to catch on with audiences. The only thing that might jump out to you about this slot is von Sydow. You’re probably saying, “But Kip. People hated Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.” Yes, but they hated the Lovely Bones, too. And Stanley Tucci still got nominated. It also helped that he was Julie & Julia, true, but this is my story and I’m sticking to it. Besides, von Sydow deserves it.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
Dark Horse: Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Long Shot: Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
Total Shock: Jeannie Berlin, Margaret
The skinny: I’ve had these five set for a while. I don’t think Albert Nobbs had a big enough profile to make an impression, a similar fate that befell Ralph Fiennes’ Shakespeare adaptation. Sorry, Vanessa Redgrave. You should have been nominated for Atonement, too.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Descendants
Drive
Hugo
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Dark Horse: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Long Shot: The Help
Total Shock: The Skin I Live In
The skinny: Is the love for the Help large enough for the writers branch to go for its script from first-timer Tate Taylor? What about the adaptation of the book that set the world on fire, but not the North American box office? Maybe they love both more than films that would be consolation prizes for no Best Picture nominations. The two most vulnerable in that scenario are Drive and Tinker Tailor. Any combination of those seven wouldn’t surprise me.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
50/50
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris
Young Adult
Dark Horse: Win Win
Long Shot: Beginners
Total Shock: Margaret
The skinny: I still hold out hope that writers recognize the greatness of Diablo Cody’s acidic comedy Young Adult. But I also don’t want Win Win to lose out on a nomination. If voters could just take their Artist blinders off for a minute and realize that, aside from its lack of dialogue, the story just isn’t that original. But that’s not happening, so one of my favorites misses the cut. I just don’t know which one.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Adventures of Tintin
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango
Wrinkles
Dark Horse: Rio
Long Shot: Cars 2
Total Shock: Chico & Rita
The skinny: Unless I just missed something, I haven’t heard a ruling from the Academy that Tintin is ineligible because of its motion-capture. So it’s not going anywhere. That sets up a two-picture race between it and Rango. But let’s say it doesn’t make the cut. Who’s in? I say the colorful Rio makes it in over the critically ravaged Cars 2. That would make this the first year ever that an eligible Pixar nominee didn’t get nominated. But do the outsiders have a chance? From what I’ve read, Wrinkles is the more likely left-field nominee but don’t count out Chico & Rita, if either even has a shot.
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BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Bullhead (Belgium)
Footnote (Israel)
In Darkness (Poland)
Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
A Separation (Iran)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Hell and Back Again
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Project Nim
We Were Here
BEST ART DIRECTION
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
BEST MAKE-UP
The Artist
Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life
The Iron Lady
BEST SOUND MIXING
Hanna
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
Hugo
Super 8
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
BEST SOUND EDITING
The Adventures of Tintin
Hugo
Real Steel
Super 8
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
BEST FILM EDITING
The Artist
The Descendants
Hugo
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
Hugo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
The Tree of Life
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Star Spangled Man” (Captain America: The First Avenger)
“The Living Proof” (The Help)
“Life’s a Happy Song” (The Muppets)
“Man or Muppet” (The Muppets)
“Think You Can Wait” (Win Win)
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