Emmy Picks 2013: Comedy

The Academy will announce the Emmy nominations on Thursday. It’s always a crapshoot in predicting what strikes voters’ fancy, but it’s usually whatever struck their fancy last year. I’m going a little more in depth this year, picking which six (or sometimes seven) nominees I think will make the cut, plus a list of potential spoilers, ranked from most to least likely, including their previous Emmy nomination history. As always, the header photo represents the frontrunner.

The cast of 30 Rock
30 Rock (NBC)
The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
Girls (HBO)
Louie (FX)
Modern Family (ABC)
Veep (HBO)

Potential spoilers:
Arrested Development (Netflix) – 2 including 1 win
New Girl (Fox) – never nominated
The Office (NBC) – 6 including 1 win
Parks and Recreation (NBC) – 1

In my dreams: Happy Endings (ABC)

The skinny: Curb Your Enthusiasm isn’t eligible this year, so that last spot is up for grabs. I think Louie, which has made it in pretty much every category but this one, takes it. But if voters responded more positively than the general public to new Arrested Development, expect that past winner to make the cut.

Alec Baldwin with Kermit in 30 Rock
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Don Cheadle, House of Lies
Louis CK, Louie
Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men
Jake Johnson, New Girl
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

Potential spoilers:
• Jason Bateman, Arrested Development (1)
• Johnny Galecki, The Big Bang Theory (1)
• Matt LeBlanc, Episodes (1 for this role, 3 for Friends)
• John Krasinski, The Office (never nominated)

In my dreams: Adam Scott, Parks and Recreation

The skinny: Larry David is M.I.A. for another year. In this weak field, I think the immensely likable Jake Johnson gets his first nod over other one-and-done nominees.

Tina Fey and James Marsden in 30 Rock
Zooey Deschanel, New Girl
Lena Dunham, Girls
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation

Potential spoilers:
• Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly (2 including 1 win)
• Martha Plimpton, Raising Hope (1)
• Portia de Rossi, Arrested Development (never nominated)

In my dreams: Laura Dern, Enlightened

The skinny: Last year resulted in a rare seven-nominee field, and I don’t see any attrition. Despite her continued box office clout, I think McCarthy falls out of favor this year. Why do I say that? Well, if Mike & Molly was such a powerhouse, CBS wouldn’t have held it for midseason. My worst fear is that McCarthy still makes it at the expense of Amy Poehler.

Ty Burrell and Sofia Vergara in Modern Family
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Max Greenfield, New Girl
Bill Hader, Saturday Night Live
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
Ed O’Neill, Modern Family
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family

Potential spoilers:
• Adam Driver, Girls (never nominated)
• Will Arnett, Arrested Development (1)
• Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother (4)
• Tracy Morgan, 30 Rock (1)
• Jeffrey Tambor, Arrested Development (2 for this role, 4 for The Larry Sanders Show)
• Rainn Wilson, The Office (3)
• Michael Cera, Arrested Development (never nominated)
• Cory Monteith, Glee (never nominated)

In my dreams: DJ Qualls, Legit

The skinny: No one from Modern Family is budging, and viewers are sure to let Bill Hader have his victory lap. So who’s left? I want to say Adam Driver, who’s acting circles around everyone on Girls. But I’m not 100% sure voters will respond to such a difficult character. So eff it. I’ll say Max Greenfield again. Ugh. Not that I’m accusing Emmy voters of throwing a nod to deceased actors as a way of honoring them… Oh, wait that’s exactly what I’m saying. But Cory Monteith suddenly entered this race because of his untimely death. I say the whole category should be scrapped and start over since there are at least a dozen worthy nominees that won’t even be considered, including the kids from Modern Family and both Key and Peele.

Ed O'Neill and Sofia Vergara in Modern Family
Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Jessica Walter, Arrested Development
Merritt Wever, Nurse Jackie

Potential spoilers:
• Betty White, Hot in Cleveland (1 for this role, 3 including 2 wins for The Mary Tyler Moore Show)
• Jane Lynch, Glee (2 including 1 win)
• Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live (never previously nominated)
• Jenna Fischer, The Office (1)
• Cloris Leachman, Raising Hope (1 for this role as Guest Actress; 3 including 1 win for The Mary Tyler Moore Show)
• Alia Shawkat, Arrested Development (never nominated)

In my dreams: Aubrey Plaza, Parks and Recreation

The skinny: Don’t quote me on this, but I think Jessica Walter has usurped all the requisite Betty White love, with her performances on AD and Archer. I think that means she’ll return to this field after a long absence. But I wish they’d honor Kate McKinnon, easily the breakout star of SNL, who can do just about anything.

Bob Newhart and Jim Parsons in The Big Bang Theory
Will Arnett, 30 Rock
Matthew Broderick, Modern Family
Bobby Cannavale, Nurse Jackie
James Marsden, 30 Rock
Bob Newhart, The Big Bang Theory
Justin Timberlake, Saturday Night Live
Fred Willard, Modern Family

Potential spoilers:
• Martin Short, Saturday Night Live (never in this category)
• Matt Damon, House of Lies (1 for 30 Rock)
• Judd Hirsch, Maron (1 for Rhoda; 5 including 2 wins as Lead Actor for Taxi)
• Nathan Lane, Modern Family (1 for this role, 1 for Mad About You, 1 for Frasier)
• Robin Williams, Louie (never in this category; 1 as Lead Actor for Mork & Mindy)
• Ben Stiller, Arrested Development (1 for Extras)
• Ron Howard, Arrested Development (no acting nominations)
• Henry Winkler, Arrested Development (never in this category; 3 as Lead Actor for Happy Days)
• John Slattery, Arrested Development (never in this category)

In my dreams: David Lynch, Louie

The skinny: Excuse me for listing seven actors. The guest categories are always the toughest to predict. 30 Rock is always guaranteed at least one, but there are only a few cases of repeats for the same role. Basically, I have no clue.

David Cross and Liza Minnelli in Arrested Development
Elizabeth Banks, Modern Family
Patty Duke, Glee
Dot-Marie Jones, Glee
Liza Minnelli, Arrested Development
Catherine O’Hara, 30 Rock
Elaine Stritch, 30 Rock
Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live

Potential spoilers:
• Melissa McCarthy, Saturday Night Live (1 for this role; 2 including 1 win as Lead Actress for Mike & Molly)
• Shelley Long, Modern Family (1 for Frasier, 1 for the Cheers finale and 4 as Lead Actress for Cheers)
• Kristen Schaal, 30 Rock (never nominated)
• Isla Fisher, Arrested Development (never previously nominated)
• Wendi McLendon-Covey, Modern Family (never nominated)

In my dreams: Melissa Leo, Louie


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